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Dwarkesh

๐Ÿ‘ค Speaker
1722 total appearances

Appearances Over Time

Podcast Appearances

Dwarkesh Podcast
2027 Intelligence Explosion: Month-by-Month Model โ€” Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo

Now we can discuss it.

Dwarkesh Podcast
2027 Intelligence Explosion: Month-by-Month Model โ€” Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo

Now it's part of the conversation.

Dwarkesh Podcast
2027 Intelligence Explosion: Month-by-Month Model โ€” Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo

I do think courage has to be some part of the explanation just because there are so many people who are good at using these kind of hidden away blogging things that never get anywhere.

Dwarkesh Podcast
2027 Intelligence Explosion: Month-by-Month Model โ€” Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo

Although it can't be that much of the explanation because I feel like now all of those people have gotten sub stacks and some of those sub stacks went somewhere but most of them didn't.

Dwarkesh Podcast
2027 Intelligence Explosion: Month-by-Month Model โ€” Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo

Yeah, so on the car ride here, Daniel and I were talking about, like, AI is now the thing everyone is interested in.

Dwarkesh Podcast
2027 Intelligence Explosion: Month-by-Month Model โ€” Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo

Is there time horizon?

Dwarkesh Podcast
2027 Intelligence Explosion: Month-by-Month Model โ€” Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo

Where did this come from?

Dwarkesh Podcast
2027 Intelligence Explosion: Month-by-Month Model โ€” Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo

Like, five years ago, you would not have thought, oh, time horizon.

Dwarkesh Podcast
2027 Intelligence Explosion: Month-by-Month Model โ€” Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo

AIs will be able to do a bunch of things that last one minute, but not that last two hours.

Dwarkesh Podcast
2027 Intelligence Explosion: Month-by-Month Model โ€” Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo

Like, is there a human equivalent to time horizon?

Dwarkesh Podcast
2027 Intelligence Explosion: Month-by-Month Model โ€” Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo

And we couldn't figure it out.

Dwarkesh Podcast
2027 Intelligence Explosion: Month-by-Month Model โ€” Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo

But it almost seems like there are a lot of people who have the time horizon to write a really, really good comment that gets to the heart of the issue or a really, really good Tumblr post, which is like three paragraphs, but somehow can't make it hang together for a whole blog post.

Dwarkesh Podcast
2027 Intelligence Explosion: Month-by-Month Model โ€” Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo

And I'm the same way.

Dwarkesh Podcast
2027 Intelligence Explosion: Month-by-Month Model โ€” Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo

I can easily write a blog post, like a normal length ACX blog post.

Dwarkesh Podcast
2027 Intelligence Explosion: Month-by-Month Model โ€” Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo

But if you ask me to write like a novella or something that's four times the length of the average ACX blog post, then it's this giant mess of re-re-re-re outline that just gets redone and redone.

Dwarkesh Podcast
2027 Intelligence Explosion: Month-by-Month Model โ€” Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo

And maybe eventually I make it work.

Dwarkesh Podcast
2027 Intelligence Explosion: Month-by-Month Model โ€” Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo

I did somehow publish Unsong, but it's a much less natural way.

Dwarkesh Podcast
2027 Intelligence Explosion: Month-by-Month Model โ€” Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo

Task.

Dwarkesh Podcast
2027 Intelligence Explosion: Month-by-Month Model โ€” Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo

So maybe one of the skills that goes into blogging is this.

Dwarkesh Podcast
2027 Intelligence Explosion: Month-by-Month Model โ€” Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo

I mean, no, because people write books and they write journal articles and they write works in progress article all the time.