Jack Clark

Yes.

Well, one, I think, again, if you do the time thing, it doesn't seem wild that by April 2027, AI systems should be able to do tasks that might take a person 150 hours.

No, what is that?

That's almost a month's worth of work, which requires strange things to happen in the economy.

Yeah, but what task is it doing?

What task are you thinking of?

What's the last bit of work that took you a month?

Yeah, so tasks like this Yeah, um, no, I mean tasks that might take a person a really really long time might be Designing a complicated piece of circuitry doing a very very involved research project involving reading and cross-referencing many things building a piece of software the kinds of tasks which we currently pay

extremely talented people, large amounts of money to do are exactly the type of tasks which AI systems are kind of creeping into.

So that has some implications.

Yeah.

The other prediction we made was, you know, we've talked about how the majority of the code at Anthropic is written by AI systems like Claude.

Well, all of us in the room thought by April, maybe 100% of the code is, which led to us say, what are we doing?

And I think that we invented a guild system where we would sit around analyzing and critiquing the code that Claude writes and verifying that it's correct.

And I can't work out if this is like a really fun country club style job or if it paints some different picture.

Right.

You're going to tell me.

Where, do you do that?

I find myself staring into the face of change that we haven't experienced in perhaps a century.

And I don't know how we'll respond.