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Martin Sustrik

๐Ÿ‘ค Speaker
222 total appearances

Appearances Over Time

Podcast Appearances

LessWrong (Curated & Popular)
"Life at the Frontlines of Demographic Collapse" by Martin Sustrik

Local markets shrink.

LessWrong (Curated & Popular)
"Life at the Frontlines of Demographic Collapse" by Martin Sustrik

Successful firms move to greener pastures.

LessWrong (Curated & Popular)
"Life at the Frontlines of Demographic Collapse" by Martin Sustrik

And then there are the small firms that simply shut down.

LessWrong (Curated & Popular)
"Life at the Frontlines of Demographic Collapse" by Martin Sustrik

In Japan, over half of small and medium-sized businesses report having no successor.

LessWrong (Curated & Popular)
"Life at the Frontlines of Demographic Collapse" by Martin Sustrik

38% of owners above 60 don't even try.

LessWrong (Curated & Popular)
"Life at the Frontlines of Demographic Collapse" by Martin Sustrik

They report planning to close the firm during their generation.

LessWrong (Curated & Popular)
"Life at the Frontlines of Demographic Collapse" by Martin Sustrik

But even if they do not, the owner turns 70, then 75.

LessWrong (Curated & Popular)
"Life at the Frontlines of Demographic Collapse" by Martin Sustrik

Worried clients want a guarantee of continued service and pressure him to devise a succession plan.

LessWrong (Curated & Popular)
"Life at the Frontlines of Demographic Collapse" by Martin Sustrik

He designates a successor, maybe a nephew or a son-in-law, but the young man keeps working an office job in Tokyo or Osaka.

LessWrong (Curated & Popular)
"Life at the Frontlines of Demographic Collapse" by Martin Sustrik

No transfer of knowledge happens.

LessWrong (Curated & Popular)
"Life at the Frontlines of Demographic Collapse" by Martin Sustrik

Finally, the owner gets seriously ill or dies.

LessWrong (Curated & Popular)
"Life at the Frontlines of Demographic Collapse" by Martin Sustrik

The successor is bewildered.

LessWrong (Curated & Popular)
"Life at the Frontlines of Demographic Collapse" by Martin Sustrik

He doesn't know what to do.

LessWrong (Curated & Popular)
"Life at the Frontlines of Demographic Collapse" by Martin Sustrik

He doesn't even know whether it's worth it.

LessWrong (Curated & Popular)
"Life at the Frontlines of Demographic Collapse" by Martin Sustrik

In fact, he doesn't really want to take over.

LessWrong (Curated & Popular)
"Life at the Frontlines of Demographic Collapse" by Martin Sustrik

Often, the firm just falls apart.

LessWrong (Curated & Popular)
"Life at the Frontlines of Demographic Collapse" by Martin Sustrik

So what is being done about these problems?

LessWrong (Curated & Popular)
"Life at the Frontlines of Demographic Collapse" by Martin Sustrik

Take the case of infrastructure and services degradation.

LessWrong (Curated & Popular)
"Life at the Frontlines of Demographic Collapse" by Martin Sustrik

The solution is obvious.

LessWrong (Curated & Popular)
"Life at the Frontlines of Demographic Collapse" by Martin Sustrik

manage the decline by concentrating the population.