Saul Kavonic

We do need a plan for the contingency that that fuel doesn't arrive and the stock levels that we have, they're not readily available everywhere they need to be.

So the truth is you'll start to see structural shortages well before our stock levels actually reach zero.

That's right.

So right now the most acute fuel shortage is in jet fuel, followed by diesel.

And you're already starting to see some airports around the world, I think I've seen most recently in Italy, restricting flights.

This is going to be a problem for Australia.

So flights is probably one of the most critical areas that should be hit first.

The next most important or the next most critical fuel will be diesel.

And this has, I think, wider ramifications for the economy because so much of Australia's rural economy, particularly in agriculture and mining, relies on diesel to operate.

I don't know if you're a vegetarian or not, but if you're not, if you have a chicken burger for lunch, the chicken patty in your chicken burger, it takes a cup of diesel to

through the supply chain to get that chicken patty on your burger.

And if you have a beef burger, it's two cups of diesel, right?

That just gives you an indication fuel is required for absolutely everything in our day-to-day lives.

And when it's suddenly not available, the availability of everything, including a chicken burger for lunch and the cost of everything goes up.

There's simply no unscrambling of this egg, and the market is not going to go back to the way it was prior to the war.

Oil prices are not going to return back to where they were in January.

Now, they can come down from their current pricing levels, but I don't think we can go back to what prices were before the war for at least a year or two, even after the war ends.

People forget that this is the doomsday scenario for oil that's been war games since the 1970s and it's now playing out.