Traci Allaway

Are things changing now?

If we go back to Delcy for just a second, one thing that it feels kind of hard to ascertain as an outsider is like, is she actually aligned with Trump or is she just very good at sort of being strategic in her dealings with him?

I want to go back to something you said earlier on the orange drift in general and the idea that leaders don't blame Trump for a rise in oil prices, which I kind of get.

I can't imagine that it would be politically beneficial to say something outright that the spike in energy prices is due to Trump.

But for the general population, why don't they draw that connection between Trump and a higher cost of living?

So Lula is like he's sort of

But now he might have a case.

Just throwing that out there.

I want to step back in history for a second because you mentioned the Monroe Doctrine earlier.

And Joe and I have gotten into disagreements in our daily newsletter, which everyone should subscribe to, about whether or not a Trump corollary to the Monroe Doctrine, the Don Roe Doctrine, actually exists.

I mean, I think he clearly has some ambitions on the region, which have been in full display since Venezuela and might be even more apparent if Cuba comes into his sights next.

But what's your take on the Trump administration's like ultimate ambitions towards this particular region?

Well, OK, on that note, 2028, assuming that Trump doesn't get a third term or find some way to get a third term, what happens to all of these alliances?

Well, this is the other thing I want to ask you, because at the very beginning of this conversation, you talked about how we're at this moment where America actually seems to matter for much of the Western Hemisphere.

And that wasn't necessarily the case for some time previously.

Why do you think that, I guess, retreat from the region in some sense happened?

I realize we mentioned Cuba at the top of this conversation, and we haven't really dug into it very much.

But actually, I just learned before we started recording this episode that you're a certified super forecaster.

So I feel like I should be asking you questions in odds terms.

In probabilities.