#2-49 New Rules for the Rise and Fall of Nations: A Re-evaluation of Sharma's Theory and Outlook for 2030

Analyze Ruchir Sharma's 2018 book, "The Rise and Fall of Nations," which introduced ten criteria for predicting a country's economic trajectory. The first source offers excerpts from the Japanese translation of Sharma's book, outlining his original framework and its application to various nations, categorizing them as "rising," "average," or "falling." The second, more recent source, serves as a critical re-evaluation of Sharma's predictions seven years later, assessing the accuracy of his initial forecasts against actual economic performance, considering significant global events like pandemics and geopolitical conflicts. This follow-up analysis then proposes three new indicators—technological advancement (especially AI), geopolitical resilience and supply chain security, and social cohesion—arguing that these are now crucial for forecasting national success in an increasingly complex world, thus updating and expanding Sharma's original "rules" for the 2030 outlook.

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