Chuck Todd analyzes the sweeping tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump, discussing their historic impact. He argues that free trade has made America safer and more prosperous and predicts significant political backlash for Trump and Republicans. He outlines key political developments to watch in the coming months, highlighting an opportunity for Democrats to regain control in Washington. He also examines how Trump’s promised tax cuts are now at risk, and why his presidency will be even more challenging.Timeline:0:00 Introduction3:20 America has benefitted massively from global trade 4:20 The last time we had a similar tariff regime, it led to WW25:48 What political fallout will come from the tariffs?6:32 Could congress take tariff authority back?8:25 What to watch for the next 3-6 months9:18 Trump faces huge blowback from older voters10:18 The tariffs will tank Trump’s approval rating11:52 Elected Republicans will be vulnerable13:36 Trump has no guardrails15:13 Alienating allies and partners will be incredibly damaging16:39 The Republican party is courting disaster19:46 Trump’s tax cuts are in jeopardy21:05 Getting rid of the tariffs won’t solve the problem21:50 If Democrats win the house, congress will take the tariffs keys away from the mad king
Chapter 1: What do the tariffs mean for us politically?
Welcome to a little special edition of the Chuck Todd cast specifically for my YouTube subscribers. And so this is what I want to deal with this morning on this Friday morning, which is a question I've already been getting over the last 40, 24 hours, which is simply. What do all these tariffs mean for us politically? So look, here's here's what we do know at the moment. This is not going to go.
Chapter 2: How has America benefitted from global trade?
This does not look like it's going to go very well. You have this kind of economic shock to the system, this kind of, you know, record breaking falls in the stock market. It's the type of story that everybody pays attention to. This is not the type of stories that it's just people that are invested in the stock market or just wealthy people invested in the stock market. This is a global story.
This is arguably the lead story in every major news organization around the world because these tariffs have impacted everybody. So, look, I think a few things here that we both overestimated with Trump and underestimated with Trump. And it has to do with the idea that he's a transactional guy.
And the assumption was, and frankly, this is what many in the business community, because Donald Trump campaigned on this. He said he was going to do this. He has believed in tariffs. It goes back to 1987. Back in 1987, when Roger Stone was trying to help create Donald Trump, the politician, Donald Trump bought a full page ad in The New York Times.
Chapter 3: What historical event is similar to today's tariff situation?
I believe it was The New York Times, may have been The Post, Times and Journal, actually, but it was definitely a full page ad. That talked about how Japan was ripping off America and that Japan or trade deficit. And, you know, we had idiot negotiators. If you recall, in 1987, Ronald Reagan was president. So it he in some ways, Donald Trump, who doesn't have much of an ideology. Right.
Chapter 4: What political fallout can we expect from the tariffs?
He was one time pro-choice and now he's pro-life and all these things. If there's one issue he has been consistent on, it's this belief that the American economy should all be sort of within the borders of America. So he does, I think, this is one of his actual core beliefs, that this is the way the system should work, that there should be more manufacturing in the country, that if you have
Chapter 5: How might Congress respond to tariff authority?
And he sees everything through this binary way. There's winners and losers. And America's the winner, so therefore they shouldn't have trade deficits with anybody. People should have trade deficits with America, but it shouldn't be the other way around. So he's somebody that doesn't really, you know, if I were a critic, I'd say he doesn't understand the global economy. But he certainly doesn't...
I would say he doesn't really, he doesn't buy into this idea that the global economy has been a success. I, for the life of me, I don't see how people don't look, why most people don't understand that if you essentially look from post-World War II to now, America's written the rules for the global economy, and it has benefited America immensely.
Chapter 6: What developments should we watch in the next 3-6 months?
still the wealthiest nation, still, you know, and I say little things, go to any other country and ask yourself if you'd rather live there or here when it comes to simple things like the mail service or the quality of toilet paper, nevermind the availability of goods and services, the availability of the fact that we do have a lot more cheap goods available to us.
Chapter 7: How will tariffs affect Trump's approval rating?
Why do, you know, I grew up in Miami. We had, people used to fly in from other countries in order to simply go shopping. in the United States. OK, this is this has been what the global economy has done for America. So I know it's not cool to be for the status quo these days. Right. Everybody wants to disrupt and change and disrupt and change.
Chapter 8: What are the implications for Republican voters?
But this is one disruption that doesn't make a lot of sense, because one could argue that since America has essentially decided that the cause of World War Two is was that we didn't have enough of the economic ties with each other. And the more economic ties you have, the less likely you're going to fight each other. And so guess what?
The last time we went through this tariff business, it was followed by World War II. And there's plenty of evidence that it was a pretty direct link. the 1929 stock market crash essentially was the beginning of the collapse of the... The German economy was already fragile. It sort of accelerated the collapse of the German economy, which, of course, accelerated the rise of Adolf Hitler.
And I don't think I need to tell you what happened after he took over Germany. So the point is, is that this... The American leadership post-World War II concluded we can't have this type. So what was born? All of these multinational, multilateral organizations, whether it's NATO, the IMF, all of these things. And it has been a success. We went nearly 80 years without a war in Europe.
essentially, or almost 80 years. There was the Balkan War. We can't ignore that. And obviously, we have the war now with Ukraine. But the fact of the matter is there's been relative peace on Europe, the longest, arguably, period of peace in Europe since If for a thousand years, if you if you want to nitpick on this. So this is a radical change and it isn't going to get better overnight.
So what does this mean politically? So it's already pretty clear to me that most elected Republicans, if they could vote without fear of Donald Trump, would take back tariff authority tomorrow. You're already seeing some Senate Republicans. Chuck Grassley has introduced a bill with Maria Cantwell that I think will have majority support. Probably not yet 60 votes, but trust me, it'll get there.
But let's talk realistically. What what do I what how should you watch the next 18 months between essentially between now and the midterms? Because if there is a change in control of either House and Congress, the midterms, I do think these tariffs will go away almost immediately.
So if if let's make this I believe right now there were a Democratic House and a Republican Senate that they would collectively vote. grab the tariff keys away from Donald Trump. And so the likelihood of a Democratic House and a Republican Senate is pretty high come January of 2027.
But between now and then, the question is, would there be a majority in the House and a majority in the Senate to do this with the Republicans in charge of the House? And the answer to that is likely no. There is a big distinction between House Republicans and Senate Republicans. House Republicans are more reliant on the base of Donald Trump's party. They're more reliant on Donald Trump.
And they're frankly, you know, their political careers would be dead if Donald Trump decided to kill their careers. I'm not saying Senate Republicans aren't fragile to potential threats from the Donald Trump base, but it's but there's certainly a bit more inoculated and many of them don't have to run in 26. Not all of them have to be on the ballot in 26. So there's a little bit.
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