The President's Daily Brief
January 2nd, 2025: Putin's Economic Crisis & Migrant Gangs Escalate Attacks Ahead Of Trump's Return
Thu, 02 Jan 2025
In this episode of The President's Daily Brief: First, we'll have a preview of the domestic challenges facing Russian strongman Vladimir Putin in 2025, namely Russia’s floundering economy, which is teetering on the brink as the Kremlin continues to pour resources into their war on Ukraine. Later in the show, we’ll unpack Chinese President Xi Jinping’s annual New Year's address, in which he attempted to shore up confidence regarding Beijing’s struggling economy, while warning that no one can stop China's "reunification" with Taiwan. Plus, an update on the violent Tren de Aragua gang, as the group escalates attacks on U.S. border crossings in Texas in an effort to embed more members in the US before President-elect Donald Trump takes office. In our 'Back of the Brief' segment, Israeli spies who infiltrated deep into Hezbollah’s terror network over the past year reveal some intimate details regarding the group’s former leaders, including a top commander's plans to marry his four mistresses. To listen to the show ad-free, become a premium member of The President’s Daily Brief by visiting PDBPremium.com. Please remember to subscribe if you enjoyed this episode of The President's Daily Brief. YouTube: youtube.com/@presidentsdailybrief Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Chapter 1: What challenges does Putin face in 2025?
We'll have a preview of the domestic challenges that are facing Russian President Vladimir Putin, namely Russia's economy, which some would say is somewhat on the edge, on the brink, as the Kremlin continues to pour resources into its war on Ukraine. Later in the show, we'll unpack Chinese President Xi Jinping's annual New Year's address. Did you catch that one?
In which he attempted to show up confidence regarding Beijing's struggling economy, while warning that no one can stop China's, quote, reunification with Taiwan. Plus, an update on the violent Trend Aragua gang, the TDA gang. As the group escalates attacks on US border crossings in Texas, In an effort to embed more members in the US before President-elect Trump takes office.
And in today's back of the brief. Israeli spies, who infiltrated deep into Hezbollah's terror network over the past year, reveal some intimate details regarding the group's former leaders, including a top commander's plans to marry his four mistresses. Not one, not two, but four mistresses. But first, today's PDB Spotlight.
2025 ist ein pivotales Jahr für Wladimir Putin, aber nicht nur, weil es auf der Grundlage in der Ukraine passiert. Während viel der Fokus auf den Kriegsflüssen ist, ist Putin in einer gleich kritischen Kampf, und das würde seine Nationenökonomie aufwärmen.
Nun, ich bin kein Ökonomist, Sie haben es vermutlich schon geglaubt, seitdem Sie das PDB gehört haben, aber ich hatte mein Team hier, im Präsidenten-Daily-Brief, ich habe mir ein paar Daten gesucht, und die Zahlen, naja, sie lügen nicht. Russlands Ökonomie zeigt einige ernsthafte Kräfte, und sie sind direkt mit dem folgenden Konflikt verbunden.
If things spiral further, it won't just hurt Russia's finances. It could threaten Putin's hold on power itself. First, inflation in Russia is soaring. Prices for everyday essentials, things like eggs, fish, fruits and vegetables, are climbing fast. Inflation is running at 9.5% this year, which means that Russians are paying nearly 10% more for goods and services than they did a year ago.
And to fight this, Russia's central bank has said its interest rate at a rather staggering 21%. Now, for context, that's the highest level in years. A high interest rate makes it more expensive, of course, to borrow money for things like homes or businesses, slowing down the economy even more. Now, Let's talk about manufacturing and services, the backbone really of any economy.
These sectors are still growing, but just barely. We know this from something called the Purchasing Managers Index, or the PMI. Now, this is a survey that measures how businesses and industries like factories and retail are doing. A score above 50, well, that means growth, while below 50 signals contraction.
Russlands Produktions-PMI ist im letzten Monat auf 50,8 gestiegen, und das ist kaum über dem Wachstum. Und es ist ein Ausfall aus dem letzten Monat. In simpler terms, die Firmen produzieren weniger, weil die Kosten erhöht sind und die Anwendung wechselt. Es ist, als ob ich hier eine Wirtschaftsklasse lehre. Oh, ich glaube, das wäre eine Wirtschaftsklasse.
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Chapter 2: What was Xi Jinping's message in his New Year's address?
Fox News reports that the TDA gang has now spread to at least 19 states, with recent arrests shedding light on the scope of its reach. In New York, police recently raided gang hideouts in Brooklyn and the Bronx, arresting nearly two dozen individuals.
Chapter 3: How is the Tren de Aragua gang affecting US border security?
Chapter 4: What economic indicators show Russia's struggles?
Ich lehre wahrscheinlich nicht eine englische Klasse. Und auch das anämische Wachstum ist fragil und stark verbunden mit der Kriegsverschwendung des Landes. Faktoren, die militärisches Equipment produzieren, Ammunition und andere defensiv-relevanten Geräte, funktionieren in voller Kapazität, führend den gesamten Produktionen-Output.
Aber wenn das für irgendeinen Grund schlägt, dann wird Russlands Wirtschaft in ernsthaften Schwierigkeiten. The services sector, which includes things like restaurants and tourism, is also struggling. Really? They're not getting as many tourists in Russia as they used to? Its PMI fell to 51.2, meaning growth is slowing down there as well.
Russians are tightening their belts and businesses are feeling the pinch. And then there's the labor market. Now, at first glance, it looks strong. Unemployment is a record low of 2.3%. But here's the problem. That low number isn't because the economy is thriving. It's because so many workers have been pulled into the defense industry or the military to support the war effort.
High-paying jobs in these sectors are making it hard for other industries to find and keep workers. Construction, agriculture and even tech companies are struggling to compete for employees. Labor shortages like this are a red flag. They mean businesses can't grow and it puts a drag on the entire economy. Und lasst uns nicht vergessen, dass die internationalen Sanktionen beeinträchtigt werden.
Während diese die Wirtschaft Russlands nicht komplett zerstört haben, dank ihrer Freunde in China, Iran und Nordkorea, steigen sie die kritischen Bereiche wie der militär-industrielle Sektor und die Technologie. Sie haben noch nicht die russischen Leidenschaften zerstört, aber sie blockieren Innovationen und Prozesse, die auf der Straße schaden werden. So, hier ist, warum all das Träume für Putin.
Es scheint, dass der Krieg, naja, ziemlich teuer ist. Im Jahr 2024 erreichte die Kremlin auf dem Krieg mit der Ukraine eine Rekorde von 16,3 Trillionen Rubeln, das sind ungefähr 148 Millionen US-Dollar, mehr als 8% des Landes-GDP und 41% seines gesamten Budgetes.
Es verdrängt Russlands Ressourcen und fordert die Regierung in eine klassische Dilemma, oft bezeichnet als Waffen oder Butter, eine Wahl zwischen militärischem Spenden und Finanzierung für zivilisierende Bedürfnisse. In Putins Fall ist die Priorität klar. Verteidigungsspende nimmt Präzedenz, leaving, well, little room to address other critical areas of the economy.
A weak economy means lower public support for Putin's policies both at home and abroad. And combine that with sanctions and labor shortages and Putin's ability to sustain the Ukraine war, well, or any long-term conflict, becomes, quite frankly, a lot harder. In short, the cracks in Russia's economy are growing. And they're directly tied to its war in Ukraine.
Well, let's say Putin's war in Ukraine. How long he can paper over these cracks, well, that remains an open question. All right. Coming up next, we'll have a breakdown of Chinese President Xi Jinping's annual New Year's address, which included a veiled threat regarding Taiwan.
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Chapter 5: How do sanctions impact Russia's economy?
Mit Präsident Trump für einen weiteren Krackdown auf chinesische ökonomische Interessen, werden die Tensoren zwischen den USA und der chinesischen Kommunistischen Partei, der CCP, wahrscheinlich nur erhöhen. Was uns zu der Frage von Taiwan führt.
China hat ihre Verbrechung der Inseldemokratie in den letzten Jahren deutlich erhöht, durch regelmäßige militärische Drillen in den Flächen des Südchinesischen Sees. China claims to democratically govern Taiwan as its own and has not ruled out using military force to retake the island if Taiwan's leadership, backed by the US, continues to resist what they call reunification.
She used his New Year's address to issue a fresh warning to the CCP's global adversaries, saying, quote, the people on both sides of the Taiwan Strait are one family. No one can sever our family bonds and no one can stop the historical trend of national reunification, end quote.
While he did not expand on his plans, we can likely further expect military escalations in the region as 2025 gets underway. All right. Shifting to the U.S. The violent Trend Aragua gang are escalating efforts to breach the U.S. border in El Paso, Texas, issuing alarming new threats targeting security personnel as they attempt to expand their criminal campaign across the nation.
Oh, the TDA is threatening U.S. law enforcement. That's interesting. According to a Texas law enforcement memo obtained by the New York Post, the gang members armed with knives, tire irons and broken bottles are vowing to attack Texas National Guard soldiers stationed at the border. Well, good luck with that, TDA gang members.
It's reportedly part of a push to embed more members in the US before President-elect Trump takes office. The memo reveals that just last week, 20 gang members attempted to force their way through a border gate in El Paso and warns of plans for additional assaults.
I'm not a member of the Texas National Guard, nor am I a border security expert, but I think there's an answer to this that might work. An anonymous informant reportedly tipped off Texas authorities, cautioning that these violent break-ins would continue every night.
The informant further warned, quote, they intend to cause harm, noting the gang members are likely to exploit moments when border guards are left without federal agents to assist them. Texas Governor Greg Abbott has taken an aggressive stance against TDA, declaring it a foreign terrorist organization and imposing mandatory 10-year minimum sentences for smugglers associated with the gang.
While not officially labeled as a terrorist organization, the Department of Homeland Security labeled the TDA a transnational criminal organization in July.
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Chapter 6: What are the implications of China's economic situation?
So buying from American Giant is an investment, not just in the clothes, but a community trying to do things the right way. They believe in a new kind of conscious buying, which makes sense to me, because small changes can add up to something big.
In today's Back of the Brief, Israel's meticulous infiltration of Hezbollah's top ranks has unveiled startling details about the personal activities of its commanders, including the deceased Fuad Shulker, who was under such intense surveillance, even his plan to marry his four mistresses was uncovered. That's some actionable intelligence.
A New York Times investigation published this week detailed how deeply Israeli operatives penetrated into Hezbollah's inner sanctum, planting listening devices in bunkers and hideouts. This unprecedented access not only allowed Israel to track leadership movements with surgical precision,
aber auch eine Reihe von sterblichen, targetierten Angriffen ermöglichte, die Sophistikierung von Israels Intelligenz-Fähigkeiten zu demonstrieren. Shukr, der Senior Commander des iranischen Back-Terrorgruppes, wurde von Israel und den USA lange für seine Rolle in einem 1983-Marine-Barracks-Bombing gesucht, das 241 amerikanische Hilfsleute getötet hat.
Er war einer der am stärksten monitorierten Hezbollah-Führer. In addition to his operational activities, Israeli agencies track nearly every aspect of his personal life, including his, well, his intimate relationships. At one point, he arranged for Hezbollah's top cleric to perform marriage ceremonies over the phone for his four mistresses. Well, isn't that romantic?
Shulker apparently felt uneasy about his affairs and turned to the group's highest religious authority for help. As a reminder, Schukers involvement in a deadly rocket attack on the Golan Heights in July, which killed 12 civilians, including children, provoked a rare and high-profile strike by Israel on Beirut days later, which ultimately resulted in his death.
But Schukers' demise was just one chapter in a broader campaign. As previously reported on the PDB, Mossad operatives managed to permeate every level of Hezbollah's terrorist organization, leveraging human sources and advanced surveillance to uncover hideouts and track leadership movements.
These efforts culminated in September with the assassination of Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah for three decades. Despite warnings from his commanders to relocate, Nasrallah underestimated Israelis' intelligence reach and chose to remain in his fortified Beirut-Lebanon bunker.
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Chapter 7: How does China's partnership with Russia affect their economies?
Israeli F-15-Fighter-Jets unleashed thousands of pounds of explosives on the bunker, eliminating Nasrallah and an Iranian general. The revelations about the extent of Israeli infiltration capturing both operational secrets and personal vulnerabilities paint a picture of a, well, frankly, relentless intelligence apparatus determined to preempt threats and maintain their regional stability.
All right. That, my friends, is the President's Daily Brief for Thursday to January. If you have any questions for me that you'd like to address on the air, reach out to me, please, at pdbatthefirsttv.com. And of course, as you may already know by now, to listen to the show ad-free, well, it is simple. Become a Premium Member of the President's Daily Brief by visiting pdbpremium.com.
It really is that simple. I'm Mike Baker. I'll be back later today. Stay informed. Stay safe. Stay cool.