Adrian Ma

Kia was a person who was really committed to making the world a better place and just as committed to experiencing and spreading joy. And... It's the combination of those two things that I think is one of the many reasons that I fell in love with her.

Kia was a person who was really committed to making the world a better place and just as committed to experiencing and spreading joy. And... It's the combination of those two things that I think is one of the many reasons that I fell in love with her.

Kia was a person who was really committed to making the world a better place and just as committed to experiencing and spreading joy. And... It's the combination of those two things that I think is one of the many reasons that I fell in love with her.

So it's like when you finally find the perfect temperature on the thermostat where your room is not too hot and not too cold.

So it's like when you finally find the perfect temperature on the thermostat where your room is not too hot and not too cold.

And just like a thermostat, nobody can seem to agree on where it ought to be set. 68 degrees at all times. Wow. Wow.

And just like a thermostat, nobody can seem to agree on where it ought to be set. 68 degrees at all times. Wow. Wow.

Hey, it's Adrian Ma from The Indicator Podcast, and it's that time of the year when we get to— Hey, this is a weird request.

Hey, it's Adrian Ma from The Indicator Podcast, and it's that time of the year when we get to— Hey, this is a weird request.

Let us turn to Kenny. Okay. What is your indicator to watch this year?

Let us turn to Kenny. Okay. What is your indicator to watch this year?

It's going to be global trade or the opposite of that.

It's going to be global trade or the opposite of that.

We have peered into the glowing orb, and we have somehow survived with all our digits intact. Speak for yourself. Oh, no, Kenny. I'm sorry.

We have peered into the glowing orb, and we have somehow survived with all our digits intact. Speak for yourself. Oh, no, Kenny. I'm sorry.

Thanks for sharing the curse of knowledge with us. I will share the curse of knowledge with you anytime.

Thanks for sharing the curse of knowledge with us. I will share the curse of knowledge with you anytime.

Love a combustion event. It's a time of the year where we gather with friends or, as we do on The Indicator, where we gather with our Planet Money family and do what families do best around the holiday season. Engage in brutal, soul-breaking arguments. Yes. In a fashion most public.

Love a combustion event. It's a time of the year where we gather with friends or, as we do on The Indicator, where we gather with our Planet Money family and do what families do best around the holiday season. Engage in brutal, soul-breaking arguments. Yes. In a fashion most public.

Ha-ha. Okay, so today we have a head-to-head-to-head competition between me, Kenny, and Jeff for Indicator of the Year. And then in part two, we've got our best predictions for Indicator of 2025.

Ha-ha. Okay, so today we have a head-to-head-to-head competition between me, Kenny, and Jeff for Indicator of the Year. And then in part two, we've got our best predictions for Indicator of 2025.

Oh, if anything, I think we're going to turn up the volume on the buzzer. Okay, well. The time limits must be strictly observed. Just to recap the rules, each of us will make a spiel, an argument for why our indicator is the indicator of the year, and we'll only have 60 seconds or less to do it. Or else... We die. We die. Hey, that is too loud. Come on.

Oh, if anything, I think we're going to turn up the volume on the buzzer. Okay, well. The time limits must be strictly observed. Just to recap the rules, each of us will make a spiel, an argument for why our indicator is the indicator of the year, and we'll only have 60 seconds or less to do it. Or else... We die. We die. Hey, that is too loud. Come on.

And in the end, you, dear listener, will vote on who had the indicator of 2024. Coming up on the show, we've got an indicator going to the moon.

And in the end, you, dear listener, will vote on who had the indicator of 2024. Coming up on the show, we've got an indicator going to the moon.

That's all after the break.

That's all after the break.

And go. Nothing captures 2024 quite like my indicator of the year, consumer sentiment. America's emotional barometer for how optimistic or pessimistic consumers are feeling about the economy. Now, in pre-pandemic times, the University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index was hovering around 100, meaning people felt okay about the economy. But for the past year, it's been down around the 70s,

And go. Nothing captures 2024 quite like my indicator of the year, consumer sentiment. America's emotional barometer for how optimistic or pessimistic consumers are feeling about the economy. Now, in pre-pandemic times, the University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index was hovering around 100, meaning people felt okay about the economy. But for the past year, it's been down around the 70s,

And this one indicator explains so much of what we saw this past year. It shows how people still felt the pain of inflation. It explains why people felt lousy about the economy despite low unemployment and rising wages. And it explains why a lot of voters wanted to ditch the Democrats and bring Donald Trump back into office.

And this one indicator explains so much of what we saw this past year. It shows how people still felt the pain of inflation. It explains why people felt lousy about the economy despite low unemployment and rising wages. And it explains why a lot of voters wanted to ditch the Democrats and bring Donald Trump back into office.

The latest consumer sentiment numbers even show how Republicans felt a surge of optimism about the economy right after the election. while Democrats felt the opposite. In short, consumer sentiment isn't just a reflection of the economy, it was a political catalyst that's shaped the world we're currently living in now.

The latest consumer sentiment numbers even show how Republicans felt a surge of optimism about the economy right after the election. while Democrats felt the opposite. In short, consumer sentiment isn't just a reflection of the economy, it was a political catalyst that's shaped the world we're currently living in now.

You know, I just sometimes... The sequel... is better than the original. Sometimes. That's a good argument. Just like Godfather 2 was better than Godfather 1. Uh-huh. Or Toy Story 2. I guess they just called it the Godfather. All right. All right. Fair. Okay, let's see if you could do better, Kenny.

You know, I just sometimes... The sequel... is better than the original. Sometimes. That's a good argument. Just like Godfather 2 was better than Godfather 1. Uh-huh. Or Toy Story 2. I guess they just called it the Godfather. All right. All right. Fair. Okay, let's see if you could do better, Kenny.

I think you gave it away at the end there when you said that Bitcoin is a indicator of the year, but not the indicator of the year.

I think you gave it away at the end there when you said that Bitcoin is a indicator of the year, but not the indicator of the year.

I am very confused right now.

I am very confused right now.

Okay, guys, I think we've got pretty much all of 2024's indicators cleaned up and cleared out of the closet. All the indicators, gone. No crumbs. Is that what the kids say? Gone. Sure, let's go with that. There is one more mysteriously unmarked box here, though. Just if I can take this out here and let's see. What's inside this thing anyway?

Okay, guys, I think we've got pretty much all of 2024's indicators cleaned up and cleared out of the closet. All the indicators, gone. No crumbs. Is that what the kids say? Gone. Sure, let's go with that. There is one more mysteriously unmarked box here, though. Just if I can take this out here and let's see. What's inside this thing anyway?

Oh, yeah. I'm seeing indicators of the year.

Oh, yeah. I'm seeing indicators of the year.

My indicator to watch for 2025 is inflation expectations. This is an indicator that you can find in more than one place, like the Federal Reserve Bank of New York has one. The University of Michigan has their own version. And basically what they do is they conduct a survey of consumers and ask, where do you think prices will be one year from now or two or three years from now, etc. ?

My indicator to watch for 2025 is inflation expectations. This is an indicator that you can find in more than one place, like the Federal Reserve Bank of New York has one. The University of Michigan has their own version. And basically what they do is they conduct a survey of consumers and ask, where do you think prices will be one year from now or two or three years from now, etc. ?

Yes.

Yes.

Yes, of course. Implicitly, no PhDs allowed in this space. Okay. I don't know if that goes into the survey, but yes. So the reason I think this is going to be an important indicator in general is that it gives us a hint about how consumers will behave in the future, right?

Yes, of course. Implicitly, no PhDs allowed in this space. Okay. I don't know if that goes into the survey, but yes. So the reason I think this is going to be an important indicator in general is that it gives us a hint about how consumers will behave in the future, right?

If consumers believe that inflation will increase in coming months, they'll be more likely to want to spend their money now before it loses value. But also, if these consumers are spending money like there's no tomorrow, that can actually contribute to inflation and make inflation a self-fulfilling prophecy. And at worst... become an inflationary spiral.

If consumers believe that inflation will increase in coming months, they'll be more likely to want to spend their money now before it loses value. But also, if these consumers are spending money like there's no tomorrow, that can actually contribute to inflation and make inflation a self-fulfilling prophecy. And at worst... become an inflationary spiral.

But I think that this indicator, inflation expectations, is going to be pretty important in 2025, because even though inflation has come down, we got President-elect Donald Trump, who will be taking office soon. And his economic proposals have a lot of economists worried about possibly a new round of inflation, right? He's proposed tariffs, which...

But I think that this indicator, inflation expectations, is going to be pretty important in 2025, because even though inflation has come down, we got President-elect Donald Trump, who will be taking office soon. And his economic proposals have a lot of economists worried about possibly a new round of inflation, right? He's proposed tariffs, which...

as we've talked about on the show, could make foreign products more expensive. He's pledged to carry out mass deportations of unauthorized immigrants, which could be a double whammy for businesses that employ those immigrants, right? Because...

as we've talked about on the show, could make foreign products more expensive. He's pledged to carry out mass deportations of unauthorized immigrants, which could be a double whammy for businesses that employ those immigrants, right? Because...

If you think about industries like agriculture and construction, they could incur costs from losing employees who work for them and may have to raise wages to attract new workers. And all that could also contribute to rising prices.

If you think about industries like agriculture and construction, they could incur costs from losing employees who work for them and may have to raise wages to attract new workers. And all that could also contribute to rising prices.

She says that most of the Chinese immigrants came via US-based companies run by Chinese merchants who spoke English. They recruited workers in China, handled all the paperwork, and hired out teams of laborers to American employers.

She says that most of the Chinese immigrants came via US-based companies run by Chinese merchants who spoke English. They recruited workers in China, handled all the paperwork, and hired out teams of laborers to American employers.

But the Chinese workers also faced racism and suspicion. Nancy says anti-Chinese sentiment gained momentum in the 1870s. There was a recession in the U.S. that hit Western states more than Eastern ones.

But the Chinese workers also faced racism and suspicion. Nancy says anti-Chinese sentiment gained momentum in the 1870s. There was a recession in the U.S. that hit Western states more than Eastern ones.

These policies snowballed into the Chinese Exclusion Act of 1882. The law banned all Chinese-born laborers from entering the U.S. for 10 years. It also prevented Chinese already in the U.S. from becoming citizens. And these restrictions were extended and tightened over time.

These policies snowballed into the Chinese Exclusion Act of 1882. The law banned all Chinese-born laborers from entering the U.S. for 10 years. It also prevented Chinese already in the U.S. from becoming citizens. And these restrictions were extended and tightened over time.

Well, we have some answers, some evidence. And it comes in the form of two stories.

Well, we have some answers, some evidence. And it comes in the form of two stories.

Nancy and several researchers recently published a working paper about the economic impact of the exclusion policies on the Western U.S. They calculated that the Chinese Exclusion Act reduced the Chinese labor supply by 64%. And remember, competition for jobs was one of the main justifications for the law. So Nancy wanted to study what happened to white U.S.-born workers in Western states.

Nancy and several researchers recently published a working paper about the economic impact of the exclusion policies on the Western U.S. They calculated that the Chinese Exclusion Act reduced the Chinese labor supply by 64%. And remember, competition for jobs was one of the main justifications for the law. So Nancy wanted to study what happened to white U.S.-born workers in Western states.

A possible reason for the decline in white workers, Nancy says, is that the loss of the Chinese immigrants might have drained some towns of their economic vitality.

A possible reason for the decline in white workers, Nancy says, is that the loss of the Chinese immigrants might have drained some towns of their economic vitality.

During the Chinese exclusion era, one sector where local white workers did appear to swap in for departing Chinese workers was mining. But Nancy says that's an exception to the broader trend. Like, take manufacturing. There, her paper documents a slowdown, and this happened both in terms of output and in the number of businesses.

During the Chinese exclusion era, one sector where local white workers did appear to swap in for departing Chinese workers was mining. But Nancy says that's an exception to the broader trend. Like, take manufacturing. There, her paper documents a slowdown, and this happened both in terms of output and in the number of businesses.

Next up, Adrian and I talk with Zeke Hernandez about his economic research on immigration.

Next up, Adrian and I talk with Zeke Hernandez about his economic research on immigration.

And then we take 20 years of research and we distill it into what immigrants contribute to economic growth. and we run the numbers for immigration in the U.S.

And then we take 20 years of research and we distill it into what immigrants contribute to economic growth. and we run the numbers for immigration in the U.S.

When Zeke came to the US for college, he became fascinated with the question of why some countries prosper economically and others falter again and again. The answer seemed to come down to people.

When Zeke came to the US for college, he became fascinated with the question of why some countries prosper economically and others falter again and again. The answer seemed to come down to people.

And since then, Zeke has been researching how immigrants shape economies around the world. He recently wrote a book laying out what he's learned called The Truth About Immigration, Why Successful Societies Welcome Newcomers.

And since then, Zeke has been researching how immigrants shape economies around the world. He recently wrote a book laying out what he's learned called The Truth About Immigration, Why Successful Societies Welcome Newcomers.

Let's unpack those. So we'll start with talent. Immigrants bring skills and the ability to work. They often fill jobs where there aren't enough native-born workers willing or able to do them, which could be anything from picking fruit to practicing medicine. But Zeke says it would be a mistake to think that an immigrant's labor is the only thing they contribute to an economy.

Let's unpack those. So we'll start with talent. Immigrants bring skills and the ability to work. They often fill jobs where there aren't enough native-born workers willing or able to do them, which could be anything from picking fruit to practicing medicine. But Zeke says it would be a mistake to think that an immigrant's labor is the only thing they contribute to an economy.

Right. Like I come from New Zealand and there is a fruit I cannot find in New York. It's called a feijoa. And I ordered the mail order from California.

Right. Like I come from New Zealand and there is a fruit I cannot find in New York. It's called a feijoa. And I ordered the mail order from California.

It's really tangy, sweet, ball of perfume and delight. It's hard to explain.

It's really tangy, sweet, ball of perfume and delight. It's hard to explain.

I'm not sure if they'll still be good by then. Now, the third thing immigrants contribute is taxes. They pay sales taxes, payroll taxes that fund social security. And that's even true for many undocumented immigrants. Now, in the short run, there is a cost to integrating newer immigrants, which is disproportionately borne by local governments.

I'm not sure if they'll still be good by then. Now, the third thing immigrants contribute is taxes. They pay sales taxes, payroll taxes that fund social security. And that's even true for many undocumented immigrants. Now, in the short run, there is a cost to integrating newer immigrants, which is disproportionately borne by local governments.

You know, the cost of public education and social services like food assistance. But in the long term, Zeke says that these costs are outweighed by the taxes immigrants pay. Zeke says that the average immigrant makes a net positive contribution of just over a quarter million dollars.

You know, the cost of public education and social services like food assistance. But in the long term, Zeke says that these costs are outweighed by the taxes immigrants pay. Zeke says that the average immigrant makes a net positive contribution of just over a quarter million dollars.

In 1880, the Chinese were the biggest group of immigrants in the western US. They accounted for around 20% of all immigrants in the region. This was a time of open borders. Basically, if you had enough money to make the trip, you could come to the US.

In 1880, the Chinese were the biggest group of immigrants in the western US. They accounted for around 20% of all immigrants in the region. This was a time of open borders. Basically, if you had enough money to make the trip, you could come to the US.

The fifth and final thing immigrants contribute to economic growth, according to Zeke, is innovation. They bring ideas. Just check out some of these stats. One study estimates that in recent decades, immigrant inventors were responsible for one in three US patents. In addition, nearly half of Fortune 500 firms were founded by an immigrant or a child of immigrants.

The fifth and final thing immigrants contribute to economic growth, according to Zeke, is innovation. They bring ideas. Just check out some of these stats. One study estimates that in recent decades, immigrant inventors were responsible for one in three US patents. In addition, nearly half of Fortune 500 firms were founded by an immigrant or a child of immigrants.

Now, Zeke wants to be clear. He's not advocating for illegal immigration, but he is in favor of more legal pathways.

Now, Zeke wants to be clear. He's not advocating for illegal immigration, but he is in favor of more legal pathways.

So it's like when you finally find the perfect temperature on the thermostat where your room is not too hot and not too cold.

And just like a thermostat, nobody can seem to agree on where it ought to be set. 68 degrees at all times. Wow. Wow.

Hey, it's Adrian Ma from The Indicator Podcast, and it's that time of the year when we get to— Hey, this is a weird request.

Let us turn to Kenny. Okay. What is your indicator to watch this year?

It's going to be global trade or the opposite of that.

We have peered into the glowing orb, and we have somehow survived with all our digits intact. Speak for yourself. Oh, no, Kenny. I'm sorry.

Thanks for sharing the curse of knowledge with us. I will share the curse of knowledge with you anytime.

Love a combustion event. It's a time of the year where we gather with friends or, as we do on The Indicator, where we gather with our Planet Money family and do what families do best around the holiday season. Engage in brutal, soul-breaking arguments. Yes. In a fashion most public.

Ha-ha. Okay, so today we have a head-to-head-to-head competition between me, Kenny, and Jeff for Indicator of the Year. And then in part two, we've got our best predictions for Indicator of 2025.

Oh, if anything, I think we're going to turn up the volume on the buzzer. Okay, well. The time limits must be strictly observed. Just to recap the rules, each of us will make a spiel, an argument for why our indicator is the indicator of the year, and we'll only have 60 seconds or less to do it. Or else... We die. We die. Hey, that is too loud. Come on.

And in the end, you, dear listener, will vote on who had the indicator of 2024. Coming up on the show, we've got an indicator going to the moon.

That's all after the break.

And go. Nothing captures 2024 quite like my indicator of the year, consumer sentiment. America's emotional barometer for how optimistic or pessimistic consumers are feeling about the economy. Now, in pre-pandemic times, the University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index was hovering around 100, meaning people felt okay about the economy. But for the past year, it's been down around the 70s,

And this one indicator explains so much of what we saw this past year. It shows how people still felt the pain of inflation. It explains why people felt lousy about the economy despite low unemployment and rising wages. And it explains why a lot of voters wanted to ditch the Democrats and bring Donald Trump back into office.

The latest consumer sentiment numbers even show how Republicans felt a surge of optimism about the economy right after the election. while Democrats felt the opposite. In short, consumer sentiment isn't just a reflection of the economy, it was a political catalyst that's shaped the world we're currently living in now.

You know, I just sometimes... The sequel... is better than the original. Sometimes. That's a good argument. Just like Godfather 2 was better than Godfather 1. Uh-huh. Or Toy Story 2. I guess they just called it the Godfather. All right. All right. Fair. Okay, let's see if you could do better, Kenny.

I think you gave it away at the end there when you said that Bitcoin is a indicator of the year, but not the indicator of the year.

I am very confused right now.

Okay, guys, I think we've got pretty much all of 2024's indicators cleaned up and cleared out of the closet. All the indicators, gone. No crumbs. Is that what the kids say? Gone. Sure, let's go with that. There is one more mysteriously unmarked box here, though. Just if I can take this out here and let's see. What's inside this thing anyway?

Oh, yeah. I'm seeing indicators of the year.

My indicator to watch for 2025 is inflation expectations. This is an indicator that you can find in more than one place, like the Federal Reserve Bank of New York has one. The University of Michigan has their own version. And basically what they do is they conduct a survey of consumers and ask, where do you think prices will be one year from now or two or three years from now, etc. ?

Yes.

Yes, of course. Implicitly, no PhDs allowed in this space. Okay. I don't know if that goes into the survey, but yes. So the reason I think this is going to be an important indicator in general is that it gives us a hint about how consumers will behave in the future, right?

If consumers believe that inflation will increase in coming months, they'll be more likely to want to spend their money now before it loses value. But also, if these consumers are spending money like there's no tomorrow, that can actually contribute to inflation and make inflation a self-fulfilling prophecy. And at worst... become an inflationary spiral.

But I think that this indicator, inflation expectations, is going to be pretty important in 2025, because even though inflation has come down, we got President-elect Donald Trump, who will be taking office soon. And his economic proposals have a lot of economists worried about possibly a new round of inflation, right? He's proposed tariffs, which...

as we've talked about on the show, could make foreign products more expensive. He's pledged to carry out mass deportations of unauthorized immigrants, which could be a double whammy for businesses that employ those immigrants, right? Because...

If you think about industries like agriculture and construction, they could incur costs from losing employees who work for them and may have to raise wages to attract new workers. And all that could also contribute to rising prices.

She says that most of the Chinese immigrants came via US-based companies run by Chinese merchants who spoke English. They recruited workers in China, handled all the paperwork, and hired out teams of laborers to American employers.

But the Chinese workers also faced racism and suspicion. Nancy says anti-Chinese sentiment gained momentum in the 1870s. There was a recession in the U.S. that hit Western states more than Eastern ones.

These policies snowballed into the Chinese Exclusion Act of 1882. The law banned all Chinese-born laborers from entering the U.S. for 10 years. It also prevented Chinese already in the U.S. from becoming citizens. And these restrictions were extended and tightened over time.

Well, we have some answers, some evidence. And it comes in the form of two stories.

Nancy and several researchers recently published a working paper about the economic impact of the exclusion policies on the Western U.S. They calculated that the Chinese Exclusion Act reduced the Chinese labor supply by 64%. And remember, competition for jobs was one of the main justifications for the law. So Nancy wanted to study what happened to white U.S.-born workers in Western states.

A possible reason for the decline in white workers, Nancy says, is that the loss of the Chinese immigrants might have drained some towns of their economic vitality.

During the Chinese exclusion era, one sector where local white workers did appear to swap in for departing Chinese workers was mining. But Nancy says that's an exception to the broader trend. Like, take manufacturing. There, her paper documents a slowdown, and this happened both in terms of output and in the number of businesses.

Next up, Adrian and I talk with Zeke Hernandez about his economic research on immigration.

And then we take 20 years of research and we distill it into what immigrants contribute to economic growth. and we run the numbers for immigration in the U.S.

When Zeke came to the US for college, he became fascinated with the question of why some countries prosper economically and others falter again and again. The answer seemed to come down to people.

And since then, Zeke has been researching how immigrants shape economies around the world. He recently wrote a book laying out what he's learned called The Truth About Immigration, Why Successful Societies Welcome Newcomers.

Let's unpack those. So we'll start with talent. Immigrants bring skills and the ability to work. They often fill jobs where there aren't enough native-born workers willing or able to do them, which could be anything from picking fruit to practicing medicine. But Zeke says it would be a mistake to think that an immigrant's labor is the only thing they contribute to an economy.

Right. Like I come from New Zealand and there is a fruit I cannot find in New York. It's called a feijoa. And I ordered the mail order from California.

It's really tangy, sweet, ball of perfume and delight. It's hard to explain.

I'm not sure if they'll still be good by then. Now, the third thing immigrants contribute is taxes. They pay sales taxes, payroll taxes that fund social security. And that's even true for many undocumented immigrants. Now, in the short run, there is a cost to integrating newer immigrants, which is disproportionately borne by local governments.

You know, the cost of public education and social services like food assistance. But in the long term, Zeke says that these costs are outweighed by the taxes immigrants pay. Zeke says that the average immigrant makes a net positive contribution of just over a quarter million dollars.

In 1880, the Chinese were the biggest group of immigrants in the western US. They accounted for around 20% of all immigrants in the region. This was a time of open borders. Basically, if you had enough money to make the trip, you could come to the US.

The fifth and final thing immigrants contribute to economic growth, according to Zeke, is innovation. They bring ideas. Just check out some of these stats. One study estimates that in recent decades, immigrant inventors were responsible for one in three US patents. In addition, nearly half of Fortune 500 firms were founded by an immigrant or a child of immigrants.

Now, Zeke wants to be clear. He's not advocating for illegal immigration, but he is in favor of more legal pathways.