Amanda Ripley

And they make life better right now, regardless of what happens with the hurricane.

And they make life better right now, regardless of what happens with the hurricane.

Yeah, you say it and I'm like, that's a little cynical, Amanda. But it is the case that emergency plans are designed with the minds of emergency manager, right? It's like sometimes they're not thinking about the public and it's hard to get yourself out of your own head into the minds of the public. So let's give me an example. OK, you've heard of hurricane watches and hurricane warnings.

Yeah, you say it and I'm like, that's a little cynical, Amanda. But it is the case that emergency plans are designed with the minds of emergency manager, right? It's like sometimes they're not thinking about the public and it's hard to get yourself out of your own head into the minds of the public. So let's give me an example. OK, you've heard of hurricane watches and hurricane warnings.

Right. Because who could? That's a ridiculous way to communicate with humans. And yet it's actually a really big difference. So watch means it might happen. It might not. Warning is be on alert.

Right. Because who could? That's a ridiculous way to communicate with humans. And yet it's actually a really big difference. So watch means it might happen. It might not. Warning is be on alert.

Yeah. This is particularly true with tornadoes. Right. And this is a very big deal. Like tornadoes are very hard to predict. They can happen anytime, anywhere. So the difference between a tornado watch and a tornado warning is really important. And so if you were thinking about this like the public does or any human who's not an expert, you would not use a W word for both, right?

Yeah. This is particularly true with tornadoes. Right. And this is a very big deal. Like tornadoes are very hard to predict. They can happen anytime, anywhere. So the difference between a tornado watch and a tornado warning is really important. And so if you were thinking about this like the public does or any human who's not an expert, you would not use a W word for both, right?

Just like in any expert field, people have blinders on when it comes to what people need to hear and understand. So There are exceptions to this, right? There are some incredibly creative, empathetic and open-minded emergency managers all over this country. But in general, yeah, I think that a lot of plans are designed not according to how humans actually operate in disasters.

Just like in any expert field, people have blinders on when it comes to what people need to hear and understand. So There are exceptions to this, right? There are some incredibly creative, empathetic and open-minded emergency managers all over this country. But in general, yeah, I think that a lot of plans are designed not according to how humans actually operate in disasters.

So this is a great, a small example, but a great example. Another one would be I was on the subway in D.C. where I live and an alert, like a warning came on over the loudspeaker and it said, in case of emergency, do not panic and listen for further instruction. So it's like, first of all, anytime anyone in charge tells you not to panic, you know you're in trouble.

So this is a great, a small example, but a great example. Another one would be I was on the subway in D.C. where I live and an alert, like a warning came on over the loudspeaker and it said, in case of emergency, do not panic and listen for further instruction. So it's like, first of all, anytime anyone in charge tells you not to panic, you know you're in trouble.

Because it signals that they don't trust you and that they also don't understand how humans normally behave in disasters, which, again, is not to panic. But then to just say, you know, be passive, don't get in our way, listen, and we'll tell you what to do, again, is a total misunderstanding of how most disasters work.

Because it signals that they don't trust you and that they also don't understand how humans normally behave in disasters, which, again, is not to panic. But then to just say, you know, be passive, don't get in our way, listen, and we'll tell you what to do, again, is a total misunderstanding of how most disasters work.

So usually everyone needs to be equipped with some baseline amount of knowledge about their risks and their environment. And then you're going to be much better off as the whole collective. But those kinds of warnings reveal a bias against the public and also just an unintentional ignorance about how people behave.

So usually everyone needs to be equipped with some baseline amount of knowledge about their risks and their environment. And then you're going to be much better off as the whole collective. But those kinds of warnings reveal a bias against the public and also just an unintentional ignorance about how people behave.

Yes, I think you're talking about the July 7th, 2005 terrorist attack on London buses and subway trains, which killed 52 people, I believe. Afterward, you heard a lot about the city's extensive surveillance camera system. which helped with the investigation. But less well known is how unhelpful technology was to regular people on trains in the moment.

Yes, I think you're talking about the July 7th, 2005 terrorist attack on London buses and subway trains, which killed 52 people, I believe. Afterward, you heard a lot about the city's extensive surveillance camera system. which helped with the investigation. But less well known is how unhelpful technology was to regular people on trains in the moment.

So the official report on the response found one overarching fundamental lesson, which is that emergency plans had been designed to meet the needs of emergency officials. not regular people. So passengers had no way, for example, to let the train drivers know that there had been an explosion. Big problem. They also had trouble getting out.

So the official report on the response found one overarching fundamental lesson, which is that emergency plans had been designed to meet the needs of emergency officials. not regular people. So passengers had no way, for example, to let the train drivers know that there had been an explosion. Big problem. They also had trouble getting out.

The train doors weren't designed to be opened by passengers, and they couldn't find first aid kits to treat the wounded, which turned out all those supplies were kept in subway supervisors' offices, not on the trains. So there's a lot of examples like this, but the point is, unless you are thinking about the public as your ally, as...

The train doors weren't designed to be opened by passengers, and they couldn't find first aid kits to treat the wounded, which turned out all those supplies were kept in subway supervisors' offices, not on the trains. So there's a lot of examples like this, but the point is, unless you are thinking about the public as your ally, as...

your first line of emergency responders, you're going to make mistakes in how you plan for disasters, especially if you're thinking about them as the enemy, if you're thinking about them as like your adversary.

your first line of emergency responders, you're going to make mistakes in how you plan for disasters, especially if you're thinking about them as the enemy, if you're thinking about them as like your adversary.

If you kept it on the trains, some kid's going to steal it and it's going to be a mess. There's going to be Band-Aids everywhere. It's going to be chaos.

If you kept it on the trains, some kid's going to steal it and it's going to be a mess. There's going to be Band-Aids everywhere. It's going to be chaos.

OK, I am relying on estimates from folks who do this kind of forecasting. It's very difficult. Meta Bayada is the one that I specifically use, but they do estimates of what are the chances we'll see another pandemic that kills at least as many people And actually, the chances that we'll see another pandemic that does that before 2050 is about 50-50. So that's terrifying. We don't know, right?

OK, I am relying on estimates from folks who do this kind of forecasting. It's very difficult. Meta Bayada is the one that I specifically use, but they do estimates of what are the chances we'll see another pandemic that kills at least as many people And actually, the chances that we'll see another pandemic that does that before 2050 is about 50-50. So that's terrifying. We don't know, right?

That's the bottom line. Another big reason for the increase in disasters, it's not just climate change, but it's also that we've changed where we build and how we live. So the way that we've become so interdependent, the way that we've become so mobile, right? All of those things have made us much more vulnerable to pandemics. It's a complicated, perfect storm of different things.

That's the bottom line. Another big reason for the increase in disasters, it's not just climate change, but it's also that we've changed where we build and how we live. So the way that we've become so interdependent, the way that we've become so mobile, right? All of those things have made us much more vulnerable to pandemics. It's a complicated, perfect storm of different things.

And I agree that because humans always overweight their past personal experience when assessing future risk. So it's not a new problem for us. We know that with hurricanes, for example, if there was a forecast for a really terrible hurricane and everyone evacuated or most people evacuated and then it didn't hit, right, or it wasn't as bad.

And I agree that because humans always overweight their past personal experience when assessing future risk. So it's not a new problem for us. We know that with hurricanes, for example, if there was a forecast for a really terrible hurricane and everyone evacuated or most people evacuated and then it didn't hit, right, or it wasn't as bad.

then we know that the next hurricane people will probably under react and the reverse is true that people sometimes overreact if there was a unusually bad hurricane so this is a problem we know about and that's the good news it seems we know how to deal with that but it is hard it is hard to undo the damage that has been done by the last pandemic.

then we know that the next hurricane people will probably under react and the reverse is true that people sometimes overreact if there was a unusually bad hurricane so this is a problem we know about and that's the good news it seems we know how to deal with that but it is hard it is hard to undo the damage that has been done by the last pandemic.

Yeah, I mean, and now we're talking about polarization. So political polarization means that a lot of people will tend to do the opposite of what their enemy says to do. So the more former President Trump insisted that we reopen schools, the more entrenched you saw the resistance among some of the teacher union leaders. But it was almost like it's a diabolical problem, right?

Yeah, I mean, and now we're talking about polarization. So political polarization means that a lot of people will tend to do the opposite of what their enemy says to do. So the more former President Trump insisted that we reopen schools, the more entrenched you saw the resistance among some of the teacher union leaders. But it was almost like it's a diabolical problem, right?

Any kind of intractable conflict like that, because people will start to just react as opposed to trying to make an informed decision. And I think, look, at the same time, I know for myself, if I look back at it, and I spent a long time looking back at it, it was not easy doing the update for this book. I found that I was frequently either underreacting or overreacting to the pandemic.

Any kind of intractable conflict like that, because people will start to just react as opposed to trying to make an informed decision. And I think, look, at the same time, I know for myself, if I look back at it, and I spent a long time looking back at it, it was not easy doing the update for this book. I found that I was frequently either underreacting or overreacting to the pandemic.

Like I was either in total denial and not doing enough or I was overdoing it and yelling at my husband for using a public bathroom. Do you know what I mean?

Like I was either in total denial and not doing enough or I was overdoing it and yelling at my husband for using a public bathroom. Do you know what I mean?

It is very tricky to calibrate. And if there's low trust, then you end up maybe overtrusting some people and undermining others. No matter what they say, you're going to do the opposite.

It is very tricky to calibrate. And if there's low trust, then you end up maybe overtrusting some people and undermining others. No matter what they say, you're going to do the opposite.

And we say screwed it up, but it also just objectively is hard. Like it's an unknown and it's constantly moving. And the reality is we just don't make decisions based on cold, hard calculus of risk. That's just not how humans work. I keep having to remind myself how social we are as creatures. And so much of our decisions are about what people around us are doing and what people think.

And we say screwed it up, but it also just objectively is hard. Like it's an unknown and it's constantly moving. And the reality is we just don't make decisions based on cold, hard calculus of risk. That's just not how humans work. I keep having to remind myself how social we are as creatures. And so much of our decisions are about what people around us are doing and what people think.

in our culture or community are doing. And I remember vividly, this is embarrassing, but I remember when I had to travel, which I did quite a bit for work during the pandemic, I would change my behavior depending on which state I was in. Like I'd fly to Florida and no one's wearing a mask. We're in these like crowded rooms. And at first I'd be really freaked out

in our culture or community are doing. And I remember vividly, this is embarrassing, but I remember when I had to travel, which I did quite a bit for work during the pandemic, I would change my behavior depending on which state I was in. Like I'd fly to Florida and no one's wearing a mask. We're in these like crowded rooms. And at first I'd be really freaked out

And then by after day two, I wouldn't be wearing a mask. And then I get on a plane, fly back to D.C., where everyone was always pretty uptight about this. And I would put my mask back on. You could actually see the hypocrisy in real time. But you're trying to fit in. You're trying to like subconsciously or consciously do what others are doing. And that changes very quickly from place to place.

And then by after day two, I wouldn't be wearing a mask. And then I get on a plane, fly back to D.C., where everyone was always pretty uptight about this. And I would put my mask back on. You could actually see the hypocrisy in real time. But you're trying to fit in. You're trying to like subconsciously or consciously do what others are doing. And that changes very quickly from place to place.

Remove it to talk to you.

Remove it to talk to you.

You know, what's wild is it really varies depending on your role in the situation. So let me give you an example.

You know, what's wild is it really varies depending on your role in the situation. So let me give you an example.

When they study building fires like theater fires or department store fires or stadium fires, people who are working for minimum wage as busboys or whatever servers in that restaurant, they will go to incredible over the top ends to help people and things that are just really not in their pay grade. But because their role is as helper and their role is as host or what have you.

When they study building fires like theater fires or department store fires or stadium fires, people who are working for minimum wage as busboys or whatever servers in that restaurant, they will go to incredible over the top ends to help people and things that are just really not in their pay grade. But because their role is as helper and their role is as host or what have you.

That tends to extend the situation. But the diners or plane passengers or others will become very passive, typically. and kind of wait to be told exactly what to do, which can be deadly. Every firefighter pretty much has a story about going into a crowded bar or a restaurant and there's like smoke just filling the ceiling, right? And nobody's doing anything. Everybody's just joking and laughing.

That tends to extend the situation. But the diners or plane passengers or others will become very passive, typically. and kind of wait to be told exactly what to do, which can be deadly. Every firefighter pretty much has a story about going into a crowded bar or a restaurant and there's like smoke just filling the ceiling, right? And nobody's doing anything. Everybody's just joking and laughing.

And so I think that it's an unsatisfying answer, but I think our behavior varies depending on our role in that moment.

And so I think that it's an unsatisfying answer, but I think our behavior varies depending on our role in that moment.

This is what I'm saying. You defer to the people around you. If a smoke detector went off right now, what's the first thing you do? You look around. If there's other people in the building, you look around and what are they doing? That is the first thing we do. And There's good evolutionary reasons for that, but it can be a problem.

This is what I'm saying. You defer to the people around you. If a smoke detector went off right now, what's the first thing you do? You look around. If there's other people in the building, you look around and what are they doing? That is the first thing we do. And There's good evolutionary reasons for that, but it can be a problem.

It's actually a great example of what you talked about with the bystander non-intervention problem because... The same exact thing holds in plane crashes or other kinds of disasters. If you give people specific assertive commands, they will comply. They will help. But it's very helpful to say very clearly and loudly, you in the green shirt, call 911 or get up and get out of the plane.

It's actually a great example of what you talked about with the bystander non-intervention problem because... The same exact thing holds in plane crashes or other kinds of disasters. If you give people specific assertive commands, they will comply. They will help. But it's very helpful to say very clearly and loudly, you in the green shirt, call 911 or get up and get out of the plane.

So this is what the flight attendants are now trained to do. Most plane crashes are actually survivable, which always surprises people.

So this is what the flight attendants are now trained to do. Most plane crashes are actually survivable, which always surprises people.

Exactly. But it turns out most plane crashes end up the planes on the ground, but on fire. So you have very little time to get off before that smoke gets really toxic. So the whole game is getting off quickly. And what they found is in the 70s, there was a series of passenger plane crashes where, again, people had time to get off.

Exactly. But it turns out most plane crashes end up the planes on the ground, but on fire. So you have very little time to get off before that smoke gets really toxic. So the whole game is getting off quickly. And what they found is in the 70s, there was a series of passenger plane crashes where, again, people had time to get off.

And then they found them just dead in their seats with their hands crossed across their laps. And the reason I talk about plane crashes, by the way, is not because they're likely to happen, thank God, but because there's a lot of money spent on studying human behavior in plane crashes. And the behavior is very similar in different disasters. So we can learn a lot from that.

And then they found them just dead in their seats with their hands crossed across their laps. And the reason I talk about plane crashes, by the way, is not because they're likely to happen, thank God, but because there's a lot of money spent on studying human behavior in plane crashes. And the behavior is very similar in different disasters. So we can learn a lot from that.

So there are sociologists and psychologists who work for the National Transportation Safety Board and study plane crashes. And one of the things they learned is that if you give people very direct orders about then they will move. So flight attendants, I did some training with them for the book, and they will literally scream at you, get out of the plane, leave your carry-on, don't take your bags.

So there are sociologists and psychologists who work for the National Transportation Safety Board and study plane crashes. And one of the things they learned is that if you give people very direct orders about then they will move. So flight attendants, I did some training with them for the book, and they will literally scream at you, get out of the plane, leave your carry-on, don't take your bags.

And that helps a lot. So if you are in a situation and you happen to know how to get out or what to do, it is important to realize that if you step into that leadership role, people will follow.

And that helps a lot. So if you are in a situation and you happen to know how to get out or what to do, it is important to realize that if you step into that leadership role, people will follow.

Yes. With another one on the way.

Yes. With another one on the way.

Right. Exactly. Yeah. What happened to your friend?

Right. Exactly. Yeah. What happened to your friend?

Well, and Jordan, why do you think you reacted the way you reacted?

Well, and Jordan, why do you think you reacted the way you reacted?

It wasn't like your world is imploding.

It wasn't like your world is imploding.

Yeah, you never want to see that. And how did people react when you did give them assertive orders?

Yeah, you never want to see that. And how did people react when you did give them assertive orders?

Okay, this is actually a really interesting question, because disasters happen quite frequently, and they've gotten more frequent since I wrote the original book. So there's kind of an interesting paradox here, and it gets more hopeful. From 2011 to 2021, 90% of American counties went through a federally declared disaster. So That's a lot of people.

Okay, this is actually a really interesting question, because disasters happen quite frequently, and they've gotten more frequent since I wrote the original book. So there's kind of an interesting paradox here, and it gets more hopeful. From 2011 to 2021, 90% of American counties went through a federally declared disaster. So That's a lot of people.

It's probably a combination of things, right? Like you said, you add some distance from this particular person so you could look at it without as much shock and awe and that kind of thing. But also maybe you had experiences like this so you know that things can go upside down really quickly and you're not stuck in that denial phase as long as others might be.

It's probably a combination of things, right? Like you said, you add some distance from this particular person so you could look at it without as much shock and awe and that kind of thing. But also maybe you had experiences like this so you know that things can go upside down really quickly and you're not stuck in that denial phase as long as others might be.

So that's something that we know that people do spend a good deal of time trying to fit what's happening into their like brain's library of everything that's happened before. So if it doesn't fit, right, then that's going to really slow you down.

So that's something that we know that people do spend a good deal of time trying to fit what's happening into their like brain's library of everything that's happened before. So if it doesn't fit, right, then that's going to really slow you down.

Wow. Yes, that's a great example, right, where your brain will come up with every possible creative explanation for what's happening to normalize it, to make it seem like a normal time. And this happens even with trained, experienced pilots whose plane is about to crash, as they report saying afterward, you know, I'm not a person who crashes airplanes, just like you said.

Wow. Yes, that's a great example, right, where your brain will come up with every possible creative explanation for what's happening to normalize it, to make it seem like a normal time. And this happens even with trained, experienced pilots whose plane is about to crash, as they report saying afterward, you know, I'm not a person who crashes airplanes, just like you said.

I'm not a person who gets kidnapped. So this is something we should expect. Now, the good news is if you know that denial is possible, definitely going to happen to you in almost every scenario like this, then you can sometimes notice it happening and push through it more quickly. I know I've done that myself.

I'm not a person who gets kidnapped. So this is something we should expect. Now, the good news is if you know that denial is possible, definitely going to happen to you in almost every scenario like this, then you can sometimes notice it happening and push through it more quickly. I know I've done that myself.

For whatever reason, been in a couple of different gunshot incidents recently, gunfire incidents. I was fine. But because I know that other people around me will, depending on the situation, deny and disbelieve what's happening, I know not to trust their cues necessarily. If I hear a gunshot, I know what that is. So I'm going to take action.

For whatever reason, been in a couple of different gunshot incidents recently, gunfire incidents. I was fine. But because I know that other people around me will, depending on the situation, deny and disbelieve what's happening, I know not to trust their cues necessarily. If I hear a gunshot, I know what that is. So I'm going to take action.

This is the kind of thing where just a little bit of knowledge can be really helpful. Otherwise, you can really get stuck in that phase.

This is the kind of thing where just a little bit of knowledge can be really helpful. Otherwise, you can really get stuck in that phase.

Right. And, you know, you're not driving.

Right. And, you know, you're not driving.

Yeah. It's very delicate. You want everything to be OK. And you also don't want to create friction with this person. I've definitely been in a situation with Uber drivers or cab drivers. It's pretty terrifying. And it's good that you realized it because you're right. Today, you'd be on the phone and you would just be not even noticing.

Yeah. It's very delicate. You want everything to be OK. And you also don't want to create friction with this person. I've definitely been in a situation with Uber drivers or cab drivers. It's pretty terrifying. And it's good that you realized it because you're right. Today, you'd be on the phone and you would just be not even noticing.

90% of the population essentially live in or very near a disaster zone. So we have quite a lot of disasters and weather and geological disasters specifically have increased about 400% over the past 50 years. But going back to your point about Haiti, we've actually gotten much better disasters. at surviving them over the same time period, which is kind of interesting.

90% of the population essentially live in or very near a disaster zone. So we have quite a lot of disasters and weather and geological disasters specifically have increased about 400% over the past 50 years. But going back to your point about Haiti, we've actually gotten much better disasters. at surviving them over the same time period, which is kind of interesting.

Wow.

Wow.

That is wild. Yeah. I'm amazed your brother-in-law had the conviction to do that. You know, I think it's easy to think, you don't know from Istanbul, right? Right.

That is wild. Yeah. I'm amazed your brother-in-law had the conviction to do that. You know, I think it's easy to think, you don't know from Istanbul, right? Right.

That is wild. So he must have like a sixth sense. There are stories from 9-11 people who evacuated the Trade Center. Elia, who I write about in the book, she remembers vividly being in the staircase. So you spent a lot of time. It basically took people at least a minute per floor to evacuate. So if you're on the 20th or 30th floor, we're talking a while.

That is wild. So he must have like a sixth sense. There are stories from 9-11 people who evacuated the Trade Center. Elia, who I write about in the book, she remembers vividly being in the staircase. So you spent a lot of time. It basically took people at least a minute per floor to evacuate. So if you're on the 20th or 30th floor, we're talking a while.

And then most people didn't leave for at least six or seven minutes after the impact for a bunch of reasons. But she's in the stairs. She hears that the reason that there had been this very dramatic shaking of the building was that a plane had crashed into it. So her first thought, she comes up with a story just like that, right? That's how the brain works is we are story processing machines.

And then most people didn't leave for at least six or seven minutes after the impact for a bunch of reasons. But she's in the stairs. She hears that the reason that there had been this very dramatic shaking of the building was that a plane had crashed into it. So her first thought, she comes up with a story just like that, right? That's how the brain works is we are story processing machines.

And the first story she told herself was, oh, the pilot must have had a heart attack. And she remembers feeling sorry for the pilot. And so then the second plane hits. And then she decides that it must have been two pilots and they were racing. And she's annoyed with them now, right? So you see how she's coming up with different stories, all of which are like actually more benign than the reality.

And the first story she told herself was, oh, the pilot must have had a heart attack. And she remembers feeling sorry for the pilot. And so then the second plane hits. And then she decides that it must have been two pilots and they were racing. And she's annoyed with them now, right? So you see how she's coming up with different stories, all of which are like actually more benign than the reality.

Finally, as she's descending and spinning on this and talking to other people in the stairwell, she realizes they wouldn't have hit that far apart if they were racing. And that doesn't actually compute. And then she had the thought, we are at war. That was the first story that entered her mind.

Finally, as she's descending and spinning on this and talking to other people in the stairwell, she realizes they wouldn't have hit that far apart if they were racing. And that doesn't actually compute. And then she had the thought, we are at war. That was the first story that entered her mind.

And so one of the reasons your brain doesn't want you to always grapple with this reality is because it's overwhelming. And shortly after that, Elia lost her sight. She literally couldn't see. She stopped moving. Yeah, this happens in extreme events where people lose their sense of sound, their sense of sight.

And so one of the reasons your brain doesn't want you to always grapple with this reality is because it's overwhelming. And shortly after that, Elia lost her sight. She literally couldn't see. She stopped moving. Yeah, this happens in extreme events where people lose their sense of sound, their sense of sight.

And our best theory, right, is that your brain is trying to control the inputs so that you can survive. And it becomes overwhelming. She had at that moment walked out onto the mezzanine outside of the World Trade Center and seen that this was not a small event. There were bodies on the ground. And so it was too much for her to process.

And our best theory, right, is that your brain is trying to control the inputs so that you can survive. And it becomes overwhelming. She had at that moment walked out onto the mezzanine outside of the World Trade Center and seen that this was not a small event. There were bodies on the ground. And so it was too much for her to process.

So like a lot of people, almost everyone I interviewed who evacuated on 9-11, It was a stranger who came and took her by the elbow and said, we're getting out of here. And to this day, she never saw her face because she lost vision, right, momentarily. But it was because of her. So this is important because it leads to the second phase after denial, which is deliberation, which we've talked about.

So like a lot of people, almost everyone I interviewed who evacuated on 9-11, It was a stranger who came and took her by the elbow and said, we're getting out of here. And to this day, she never saw her face because she lost vision, right, momentarily. But it was because of her. So this is important because it leads to the second phase after denial, which is deliberation, which we've talked about.

But this social piece of it can be very powerful. And that is most people have a story like this on 9-11. They did not get out alone.

But this social piece of it can be very powerful. And that is most people have a story like this on 9-11. They did not get out alone.

I've interviewed police officers who fired their guns and never heard it, never heard the gun go off and didn't have their ears ringing, even though they weren't wearing ear protection. So it's totally counter to our understanding of hearing. But it reminds you that all the time your brain is censoring the input and syncing them up and deciding what you will and will not notice, so to speak.

I've interviewed police officers who fired their guns and never heard it, never heard the gun go off and didn't have their ears ringing, even though they weren't wearing ear protection. So it's totally counter to our understanding of hearing. But it reminds you that all the time your brain is censoring the input and syncing them up and deciding what you will and will not notice, so to speak.

So the number of deaths has dropped by about two thirds over the past 50 years. So disasters have gotten more frequent, more destructive, financially speaking, and less deadly. But in there is a lot of hope and a lot of reason to do things differently, because the reason the same earthquake can hit Florida and cause minimal damage and then wipe out

So the number of deaths has dropped by about two thirds over the past 50 years. So disasters have gotten more frequent, more destructive, financially speaking, and less deadly. But in there is a lot of hope and a lot of reason to do things differently, because the reason the same earthquake can hit Florida and cause minimal damage and then wipe out

In extreme events, things can get pretty wacky pretty quickly as your brain tries to figure out how to survive. God.

In extreme events, things can get pretty wacky pretty quickly as your brain tries to figure out how to survive. God.

Yeah, I think it's less sentimental, although I'm sure that was part of it, and more a delay tactic. What Elia described was she did not want to leave. Like every fiber in her being wanted someone to tell her to chill out and go back to work. So she remembers walking in circles in her cubicle, looking for things to take with her.

Yeah, I think it's less sentimental, although I'm sure that was part of it, and more a delay tactic. What Elia described was she did not want to leave. Like every fiber in her being wanted someone to tell her to chill out and go back to work. So she remembers walking in circles in her cubicle, looking for things to take with her.

Luckily, in her case, another co-worker yelled, get out of the building. Otherwise, who knows if she would have made it out. But she took a novel she was reading. She was like, it's a way to kind of normalize the situation. default to what you normally do, right? You normally, when you leave an airplane, you first get your overhead bag. And so this is how we normally behave.

Luckily, in her case, another co-worker yelled, get out of the building. Otherwise, who knows if she would have made it out. But she took a novel she was reading. She was like, it's a way to kind of normalize the situation. default to what you normally do, right? You normally, when you leave an airplane, you first get your overhead bag. And so this is how we normally behave.

And we will default to that sometimes without some clear guidance.

And we will default to that sometimes without some clear guidance.

And I think if I remember, this started for him, right, when he was a little kid and he was playing on a construction site and he fell, right?

And I think if I remember, this started for him, right, when he was a little kid and he was playing on a construction site and he fell, right?

He fell like 12 feet. And he remembers that the fall took forever. And so it was really slow. And you hear this from people who've been in life or death situations is that it feels like everything is in slow motion. So he's trying to figure out why that is and what's going on in your brain.

He fell like 12 feet. And he remembers that the fall took forever. And so it was really slow. And you hear this from people who've been in life or death situations is that it feels like everything is in slow motion. So he's trying to figure out why that is and what's going on in your brain.

They would have researched something much more pleasant.

They would have researched something much more pleasant.

Yes. This is wild, right? Like people tend to lose 20% of their peripheral vision when they're on the phone and it actually stays offline for them for like 5, 10, 15 minutes after they hang up or after they put the phone down. It reminds me of, have you read about how like they... Car accident rate seems to be higher in the U.S. right now compared to Europe.

Yes. This is wild, right? Like people tend to lose 20% of their peripheral vision when they're on the phone and it actually stays offline for them for like 5, 10, 15 minutes after they hang up or after they put the phone down. It reminds me of, have you read about how like they... Car accident rate seems to be higher in the U.S. right now compared to Europe.

And one of the theories is because when you drive with a stick shift, which is most cars in Europe, you can't hold your phone. You just can't.

And one of the theories is because when you drive with a stick shift, which is most cars in Europe, you can't hold your phone. You just can't.

Yeah. So you're like a little bit more focused than you might be in the U.S. with an automatic transmission.

Yeah. So you're like a little bit more focused than you might be in the U.S. with an automatic transmission.

Yeah. And that's one thing on the freeway. But we know from the research that in disasters, people's field of sight shrinks by about 70 percent. So it's literally like they're peering out of a keyhole. They can describe the gun that was pointing at them in intricate detail, but not the person pointing it.

Yeah. And that's one thing on the freeway. But we know from the research that in disasters, people's field of sight shrinks by about 70 percent. So it's literally like they're peering out of a keyhole. They can describe the gun that was pointing at them in intricate detail, but not the person pointing it.

Your brain can misfire in these situations and some of your powers will get stronger and some will disappear.

Your brain can misfire in these situations and some of your powers will get stronger and some will disappear.

Yeah, I think the idea, the theory at least, is that you're fixated on the threat. If you were being attacked by a tiger, you would want to know where that tiger's jaw is. That makes sense. The thing is, focusing on a gun, the gun itself isn't necessarily going to help you as much, particularly identify the person later. So it's about modern threats usually versus primitive, primordial threats.

Yeah, I think the idea, the theory at least, is that you're fixated on the threat. If you were being attacked by a tiger, you would want to know where that tiger's jaw is. That makes sense. The thing is, focusing on a gun, the gun itself isn't necessarily going to help you as much, particularly identify the person later. So it's about modern threats usually versus primitive, primordial threats.

Entire cities and other places or the same storm, earthquake, you name it. It's because of the things we have done to protect ourselves, notably building codes, major ones. So it's this really interesting duality where things are getting worse and better at the same time.

Entire cities and other places or the same storm, earthquake, you name it. It's because of the things we have done to protect ourselves, notably building codes, major ones. So it's this really interesting duality where things are getting worse and better at the same time.

But all of this is because we're under the influence of stress hormones. Stress hormones are like hallucinogenic drugs at this level. And no one I've interviewed has gone through an ordeal like this without some kind of altered reality. In one study of shootings of civilians by police officers, 94% of them These are trained, allegedly trained police officers.

But all of this is because we're under the influence of stress hormones. Stress hormones are like hallucinogenic drugs at this level. And no one I've interviewed has gone through an ordeal like this without some kind of altered reality. In one study of shootings of civilians by police officers, 94% of them These are trained, allegedly trained police officers.

94% experienced at least one significant distortion. But very few of them knew to expect that. So they lost their vision or sight or sound or something was weird. Like things slowed down. Sometimes things speed up for people. Sometimes things get distorted in different ways. We don't really understand why that is, but it seems to be a kind of haphazard, ham-fisted attempt by your brain to help you.

94% experienced at least one significant distortion. But very few of them knew to expect that. So they lost their vision or sight or sound or something was weird. Like things slowed down. Sometimes things speed up for people. Sometimes things get distorted in different ways. We don't really understand why that is, but it seems to be a kind of haphazard, ham-fisted attempt by your brain to help you.

Wow. I'm starting to see why you reacted pretty quickly. Yeah. Between the kidnapping attempts and the gunshot at close range.

Wow. I'm starting to see why you reacted pretty quickly. Yeah. Between the kidnapping attempts and the gunshot at close range.

That's a lot.

That's a lot.

Yeah, it depends on the situation. But sometimes there's a way in which your brain is trying to figure out what is the best response here. And for most people listening to the show, they're probably not in an instantaneous life or death situation. And so sometimes denial is evolutionarily appropriate. It's a way to make sense of the world.

Yeah, it depends on the situation. But sometimes there's a way in which your brain is trying to figure out what is the best response here. And for most people listening to the show, they're probably not in an instantaneous life or death situation. And so sometimes denial is evolutionarily appropriate. It's a way to make sense of the world.

We have no other way to make sense of the world except pattern recognition. We wouldn't have evolved this way if it didn't help us. But it's always in retrospect that you know, oh, I'm so glad that I didn't overreact and it just turned out to be fireworks. But then if it is actually gunshots, you're like, why am I such an idiot?

We have no other way to make sense of the world except pattern recognition. We wouldn't have evolved this way if it didn't help us. But it's always in retrospect that you know, oh, I'm so glad that I didn't overreact and it just turned out to be fireworks. But then if it is actually gunshots, you're like, why am I such an idiot?

Right. Like it's only a retrospect. Yeah. But it could also be that you already experienced close range gunfire. You have like a muscle memory for what gunfire actually sounds like.

Right. Like it's only a retrospect. Yeah. But it could also be that you already experienced close range gunfire. You have like a muscle memory for what gunfire actually sounds like.

And it didn't trigger that. Right. So you maybe had some reason to downplay that threat. But yeah, it's only in retrospect. These things are very easy to look at in retrospect and decide who's an idiot and who's not. But in the moment, it's very tricky. It's very tricky.

And it didn't trigger that. Right. So you maybe had some reason to downplay that threat. But yeah, it's only in retrospect. These things are very easy to look at in retrospect and decide who's an idiot and who's not. But in the moment, it's very tricky. It's very tricky.

It's interesting because I used to think of disasters pretty narrowly, like you're saying, like weather disasters and that kind of thing. increasingly, the more I've looked at the research, the more similar human behavior is across all those different things you mentioned. So we get into an evolutionarily designed state in these situations.

It's interesting because I used to think of disasters pretty narrowly, like you're saying, like weather disasters and that kind of thing. increasingly, the more I've looked at the research, the more similar human behavior is across all those different things you mentioned. So we get into an evolutionarily designed state in these situations.

Yeah. And people will often go for the exit they came in on. Like you have to have some situational awareness to even know that there's another exit. And you often will find people who've been in fires in the past tend to notice where exits are because they're aware of that problem. And people can be trained on this pretty quickly. You've been in theaters before the play or whatever they'll say.

Yeah. And people will often go for the exit they came in on. Like you have to have some situational awareness to even know that there's another exit. And you often will find people who've been in fires in the past tend to notice where exits are because they're aware of that problem. And people can be trained on this pretty quickly. You've been in theaters before the play or whatever they'll say.

Just so you know, there's an exit here, there's an exit here. There's small things that you can do to give people a little bit of an advantage in that situation. But my only thought would be when you say, you know, my risk calculus failed me. I think the reality is we are never as rational as we want to think. That's just not how we make decisions.

Just so you know, there's an exit here, there's an exit here. There's small things that you can do to give people a little bit of an advantage in that situation. But my only thought would be when you say, you know, my risk calculus failed me. I think the reality is we are never as rational as we want to think. That's just not how we make decisions.

In fact, the technical term for how we decide what is a threat and what is not is dread, which I think is a great word because it so aptly fits the emotion it describes, right? So if you think about dread, it's all our evolutionary fears, hopes, lessons, prejudices, distortions in one kind of X factor.

In fact, the technical term for how we decide what is a threat and what is not is dread, which I think is a great word because it so aptly fits the emotion it describes, right? So if you think about dread, it's all our evolutionary fears, hopes, lessons, prejudices, distortions in one kind of X factor.

And if you break it down into its pieces from what we know about how humans experience dread, it's the function of about six different variables. Whether a threat feels uncontrollable to you, Right.

And if you break it down into its pieces from what we know about how humans experience dread, it's the function of about six different variables. Whether a threat feels uncontrollable to you, Right.

Whether it feels unfamiliar, whether you can imagine it, even if it's unfamiliar, you've seen enough movies about it, for example, whether there's a lot of suffering and the scale of the destruction and whether it's unfair. None of those are about the probability and the cost and the benefit analysis. They're all about emotional things.

Whether it feels unfamiliar, whether you can imagine it, even if it's unfamiliar, you've seen enough movies about it, for example, whether there's a lot of suffering and the scale of the destruction and whether it's unfair. None of those are about the probability and the cost and the benefit analysis. They're all about emotional things.

So if this is why we feel safer driving technically, then we probably should because it feels controllable.

So if this is why we feel safer driving technically, then we probably should because it feels controllable.

Oh, me too. My husband does more of the driving. I'm glad to see that we've got the genders reversed here. At least we're mixing it up.

Oh, me too. My husband does more of the driving. I'm glad to see that we've got the genders reversed here. At least we're mixing it up.

That's what I'm saying. Exactly. I'm with you 100%. And because I'm more aware of the risk, which in this case, I feel like I am more rational, like just for the record. But yeah, typically when things feel like we're controlling them, we're less afraid of driving typically than we are of being in a plane crash because we're not flying it. Right. And we feel out of control.

That's what I'm saying. Exactly. I'm with you 100%. And because I'm more aware of the risk, which in this case, I feel like I am more rational, like just for the record. But yeah, typically when things feel like we're controlling them, we're less afraid of driving typically than we are of being in a plane crash because we're not flying it. Right. And we feel out of control.

Or if something feels like there's going to be more suffering, even if it's the same amount of dying or risks, like cancer is much scarier to people than heart attacks and that kind of thing. So there's this complicated alchemy that we are subject to when it comes to dread. And it's never as cut and dry as it seems.

Or if something feels like there's going to be more suffering, even if it's the same amount of dying or risks, like cancer is much scarier to people than heart attacks and that kind of thing. So there's this complicated alchemy that we are subject to when it comes to dread. And it's never as cut and dry as it seems.

So whether it's a slow-moving disaster, like a toxic train disaster, hazardous spill, or a pandemic, right, or a fast-moving disaster, you do see people go through the same stages. And that doesn't mean that those differences don't matter. They definitely do matter. Humans in general are much better at recovering from events that end quickly so that there is some safety to recover in.

So whether it's a slow-moving disaster, like a toxic train disaster, hazardous spill, or a pandemic, right, or a fast-moving disaster, you do see people go through the same stages. And that doesn't mean that those differences don't matter. They definitely do matter. Humans in general are much better at recovering from events that end quickly so that there is some safety to recover in.

And it wouldn't have mattered, though.

And it wouldn't have mattered, though.

As a result, I know I'm with you, man. I had the same reaction, but it doesn't help. Like we have to workshop this at another time. But how do you tell this to someone so that they will hear it? And that's the real question, because after 9-11, the chance of dying on a major domestic commercial airplane flight, putting aside the actual terrorist attacks was roughly eight in one hundred million.

As a result, I know I'm with you, man. I had the same reaction, but it doesn't help. Like we have to workshop this at another time. But how do you tell this to someone so that they will hear it? And that's the real question, because after 9-11, the chance of dying on a major domestic commercial airplane flight, putting aside the actual terrorist attacks was roughly eight in one hundred million.

OK, between 1992 and 2001, driving the same distance. as an average flight segment, is about 65 times riskier. And we saw the same thing, by the way, the same people make the same mistake during the pandemic, where flying remained dramatically safer than driving. It didn't feel safer, right? The dread factor was much higher.

OK, between 1992 and 2001, driving the same distance. as an average flight segment, is about 65 times riskier. And we saw the same thing, by the way, the same people make the same mistake during the pandemic, where flying remained dramatically safer than driving. It didn't feel safer, right? The dread factor was much higher.

So as of September 2020, the probability of dying of COVID-19 after catching on an airplane was less than one in 4.7 million. But getting onto a crowded airplane felt more dangerous, right?

So as of September 2020, the probability of dying of COVID-19 after catching on an airplane was less than one in 4.7 million. But getting onto a crowded airplane felt more dangerous, right?

This can't be safe. Right? This can't be safe.

This can't be safe. Right? This can't be safe.

We all know.

We all know.

Absolutely. So once the research was done, often the research doesn't get done until way after the headlines, right? So that's why you get this disconnect. But there was an analysis of 486 Hurricane Katrina victims that found that they were not disproportionately poor or Black. That in fact, if you're looking at all the variants and evacuation behavior, income accounts for some of it.

Absolutely. So once the research was done, often the research doesn't get done until way after the headlines, right? So that's why you get this disconnect. But there was an analysis of 486 Hurricane Katrina victims that found that they were not disproportionately poor or Black. That in fact, if you're looking at all the variants and evacuation behavior, income accounts for some of it.

So does race, but no more than 5 or 10 percentage points. What really accounts for the differences, and this is going to sound squishy, are people's beliefs. So it's their beliefs about how dreadful the threat is, how solid their house is. Also, can they trust that it will be safe if they leave it, right? Going back to trust. And also, how terrible will the evacuation experience be?

So does race, but no more than 5 or 10 percentage points. What really accounts for the differences, and this is going to sound squishy, are people's beliefs. So it's their beliefs about how dreadful the threat is, how solid their house is. Also, can they trust that it will be safe if they leave it, right? Going back to trust. And also, how terrible will the evacuation experience be?

So basically, age turned out to be very important in determining who left before Hurricane Katrina, because elderly people had lived through a bunch of hurricanes, some of which were, in fact, worse than Katrina. But many other things had changed, making Katrina more dangerous. And they knew that they would have to get into a crowded car with their grandkids and the dog and it would be terrible.

So basically, age turned out to be very important in determining who left before Hurricane Katrina, because elderly people had lived through a bunch of hurricanes, some of which were, in fact, worse than Katrina. But many other things had changed, making Katrina more dangerous. And they knew that they would have to get into a crowded car with their grandkids and the dog and it would be terrible.

And so they were weighing these risks and obviously preferencing their own personal experience, which is pretty normal.

And so they were weighing these risks and obviously preferencing their own personal experience, which is pretty normal.

Yeah. I mean, kids can be incredible messengers for this kind of stuff. This is why firefighters are always showing up at schools, right? Because kids get into this if you do it the right way and they'll remember and they'll become evangelical about it. And so Tilly Smith is who you're talking about, who was on the beach in Thailand on vacation with her parents.

Yeah. I mean, kids can be incredible messengers for this kind of stuff. This is why firefighters are always showing up at schools, right? Because kids get into this if you do it the right way and they'll remember and they'll become evangelical about it. And so Tilly Smith is who you're talking about, who was on the beach in Thailand on vacation with her parents.

And she saw the indicators, the warning signs, the natural warning signs of a looming tsunami, which most people in most places don't know. But she knew them because she learned them in her geography class. I think she was 12. She had just learned them in school. And so she saw that the ocean receded, got very shallow and weird.

And she saw the indicators, the warning signs, the natural warning signs of a looming tsunami, which most people in most places don't know. But she knew them because she learned them in her geography class. I think she was 12. She had just learned them in school. And so she saw that the ocean receded, got very shallow and weird.

Fish were flopping around on the sand and people were all going towards the water, staring at this or marking on this. I have photos of And she said to her parents, I think there's going to be a tsunami. And so they did what most parents would do, which is to be like, it's fine. But to her credit, kids aren't as worried about being embarrassed until they get a little older, I guess.

Fish were flopping around on the sand and people were all going towards the water, staring at this or marking on this. I have photos of And she said to her parents, I think there's going to be a tsunami. And so they did what most parents would do, which is to be like, it's fine. But to her credit, kids aren't as worried about being embarrassed until they get a little older, I guess.

But she wasn't worried about that. And so she really insisted. She sat down on the beach. She said, I'm just going to be a tsunami. And so her dad took her back to the hotel and said, yeah, I'm a little embarrassed. My daughter thinks there might be a tsunami coming. What do you guys think? And there happened to be another guy walking by.

But she wasn't worried about that. And so she really insisted. She sat down on the beach. She said, I'm just going to be a tsunami. And so her dad took her back to the hotel and said, yeah, I'm a little embarrassed. My daughter thinks there might be a tsunami coming. What do you guys think? And there happened to be another guy walking by.

And he said, you know, there was an earthquake earlier today. So it's not impossible. And they cleared that beach and they saved many people's lives as a result of that little girl's warning.

And he said, you know, there was an earthquake earlier today. So it's not impossible. And they cleared that beach and they saved many people's lives as a result of that little girl's warning.

But the behavior is surprisingly similar across really different kinds of events.

But the behavior is surprisingly similar across really different kinds of events.

Kids say so much, you know what I mean? And they don't always get the respect that they deserve.

Kids say so much, you know what I mean? And they don't always get the respect that they deserve.

Yeah. Yeah. Do you want to guess?

Yeah. Yeah. Do you want to guess?

Some of it will be kind of unsurprising, but some of it is surprising. So men are more likely to be killed by lightning, hurricanes and fires. Nearly twice as many men as women die in fires, according to the U.S. Fire Administration. So why is that? It is a bunch of reasons. Typically, more men doing more dangerous jobs that are at risk of fire, right?

Some of it will be kind of unsurprising, but some of it is surprising. So men are more likely to be killed by lightning, hurricanes and fires. Nearly twice as many men as women die in fires, according to the U.S. Fire Administration. So why is that? It is a bunch of reasons. Typically, more men doing more dangerous jobs that are at risk of fire, right?

But it's also because men take more risks overall. This is a generalization, but on average, men are more likely to walk towards smoke and drive through floods. So a lot of people, how they die in disasters is driving through standing water. If people remember nothing else from this conversation, please know this. that driving through standing water is very dangerous.

But it's also because men take more risks overall. This is a generalization, but on average, men are more likely to walk towards smoke and drive through floods. So a lot of people, how they die in disasters is driving through standing water. If people remember nothing else from this conversation, please know this. that driving through standing water is very dangerous.

You can't tell how deep it is. Whereas on average, not always, women tend to be more cautious. So they're earlier to evacuate. They're less likely to drive through standing water. They're less likely to stay outside when there's lightning. And this in some ways is a luxury, right?

You can't tell how deep it is. Whereas on average, not always, women tend to be more cautious. So they're earlier to evacuate. They're less likely to drive through standing water. They're less likely to stay outside when there's lightning. And this in some ways is a luxury, right?

If you don't think you're going to be called weak and made fun of for going inside in the lightning storm, it's a lot easier to go inside. Or if it's not your job to be outside in a lightning storm. So it's complicated.

If you don't think you're going to be called weak and made fun of for going inside in the lightning storm, it's a lot easier to go inside. Or if it's not your job to be outside in a lightning storm. So it's complicated.

Especially, put it more charitably, if you're living in a culture that doesn't give men a lot of leeway. But yes, yes, Jordan, that is right.

Especially, put it more charitably, if you're living in a culture that doesn't give men a lot of leeway. But yes, yes, Jordan, that is right.

You don't want to be that person, right?

You don't want to be that person, right?

But I bet in a different situation on a different day, you would react differently. I mean, we've seen that, right, from your stories. It depends on your mood, right? Are you hungry? Are you annoyed? There's a bunch of things. But we do know that there are some cases where it's better to be a man than a woman in a disaster.

But I bet in a different situation on a different day, you would react differently. I mean, we've seen that, right, from your stories. It depends on your mood, right? Are you hungry? Are you annoyed? There's a bunch of things. But we do know that there are some cases where it's better to be a man than a woman in a disaster.

So here's a ridiculous example, but it does matter, which is on 9-11, women were almost twice as likely to get injured while evacuating. And that was because of their shoes. So they were wearing shoes that were uncomfortable and you do a lot of walking to evacuate a skyscraper.

So here's a ridiculous example, but it does matter, which is on 9-11, women were almost twice as likely to get injured while evacuating. And that was because of their shoes. So they were wearing shoes that were uncomfortable and you do a lot of walking to evacuate a skyscraper.

And so they would take off their shoes and then they would step on glass and people would trip on their shoes and different things. So that's one thing. And another thing is in countries where women are not typically encouraged or allowed to learn how to swim, which was a lot of countries that were hit by the tsunami, they had wildly worse death rates, women. So women and girls.

And so they would take off their shoes and then they would step on glass and people would trip on their shoes and different things. So that's one thing. And another thing is in countries where women are not typically encouraged or allowed to learn how to swim, which was a lot of countries that were hit by the tsunami, they had wildly worse death rates, women. So women and girls.

There's a lot of ways that the culture and biology can inform this, but not always the ways that we expect.

There's a lot of ways that the culture and biology can inform this, but not always the ways that we expect.

Yeah, it sounds like I'm being really harsh, but the statistics are pretty clear that on average, obese people tend to move more slowly. They're more vulnerable to secondary injuries like heart attacks, which you can have in a disaster. Many people do. Many firefighters die that way. And they have a harder time physically recovering from any injuries they do sustain.

Yeah, it sounds like I'm being really harsh, but the statistics are pretty clear that on average, obese people tend to move more slowly. They're more vulnerable to secondary injuries like heart attacks, which you can have in a disaster. Many people do. Many firefighters die that way. And they have a harder time physically recovering from any injuries they do sustain.

On 9-11, people who had low physical ability for many reasons, including obesity, were three times as likely to be hurt while evacuating the towers. Even though like many people were helped, there were lots of co-workers who carried disabled co-workers out of the towers at great personal risk and effort.

On 9-11, people who had low physical ability for many reasons, including obesity, were three times as likely to be hurt while evacuating the towers. Even though like many people were helped, there were lots of co-workers who carried disabled co-workers out of the towers at great personal risk and effort.

Yes, it is true that these things can conspire to make it much harder for you to survive for a lot of reasons and also harder to recover, right? We talk about surviving, but we also want to recover. Like we want to have a full life again. And that really matters. And there's a lot of factors that can make that harder or easier.

Yes, it is true that these things can conspire to make it much harder for you to survive for a lot of reasons and also harder to recover, right? We talk about surviving, but we also want to recover. Like we want to have a full life again. And that really matters. And there's a lot of factors that can make that harder or easier.

Yeah, look, there's so many different dimensions that we bring to these situations. Like if I'm obese trying to evacuate a skyscraper, yeah, I'm going to slow that process down. But maybe also I know where the stairs are and I have helped my office prepare for, unlike most offices in the Trade Center, we've done some actual training on where the staircases are. We know how they work.

Yeah, look, there's so many different dimensions that we bring to these situations. Like if I'm obese trying to evacuate a skyscraper, yeah, I'm going to slow that process down. But maybe also I know where the stairs are and I have helped my office prepare for, unlike most offices in the Trade Center, we've done some actual training on where the staircases are. We know how they work.

Like maybe, yeah, I'm wearing heels. And so then I take them off, which makes me more likely to get injured. But then in other ways, like I'm incredibly... compassionate and cooperative. There's not just one way in which we show up at these things, just like every day. But it is true that we know safety engineers have had to adjust for the size of Americans.

Like maybe, yeah, I'm wearing heels. And so then I take them off, which makes me more likely to get injured. But then in other ways, like I'm incredibly... compassionate and cooperative. There's not just one way in which we show up at these things, just like every day. But it is true that we know safety engineers have had to adjust for the size of Americans.

The size, as Americans have gotten bigger, it changes the crowd dynamics. When people walk down the staircase, for example, they sway slightly from side to side, which takes up more space than our actual body width. So the heavier people are, the slower they move and the more they sway. And that means fewer people can fit down the staircase. This is just a physics problem.

The size, as Americans have gotten bigger, it changes the crowd dynamics. When people walk down the staircase, for example, they sway slightly from side to side, which takes up more space than our actual body width. So the heavier people are, the slower they move and the more they sway. And that means fewer people can fit down the staircase. This is just a physics problem.

You've literally captured the exact paradox, right? So... Yes, disasters are getting more frequent. And we are talking about back-to-back storms. Right now, we were not a month ago. So there is some cyclical seasonal variance. But just last year, there were 28 major weather and climate disasters costing a total of $93 billion.

You've literally captured the exact paradox, right? So... Yes, disasters are getting more frequent. And we are talking about back-to-back storms. Right now, we were not a month ago. So there is some cyclical seasonal variance. But just last year, there were 28 major weather and climate disasters costing a total of $93 billion.

And the answer to that is not to shame people, but to say, look, this is the reality. This is a heightened risk. We need to maybe make staircases and escalators wider. That would be one thing. But we also need to help people prepare for the risks that they face, regardless of their individual challenges.

And the answer to that is not to shame people, but to say, look, this is the reality. This is a heightened risk. We need to maybe make staircases and escalators wider. That would be one thing. But we also need to help people prepare for the risks that they face, regardless of their individual challenges.

You know what? It's funny. I just found under my desk, because I lived in New York City on 9-11 and I was covering a lot of disasters, so I was probably a little tweaked, but I would keep, you know, extra old pair of sneakers in my desk. And I just came across him because I moved out of that office. And I realized, you know what?

You know what? It's funny. I just found under my desk, because I lived in New York City on 9-11 and I was covering a lot of disasters, so I was probably a little tweaked, but I would keep, you know, extra old pair of sneakers in my desk. And I just came across him because I moved out of that office. And I realized, you know what?

There's been real progress, which is I no longer need to keep sneakers because all my shoes are so freaking comfortable now compared to like 2001. So hopefully that will change and has changed over time.

There's been real progress, which is I no longer need to keep sneakers because all my shoes are so freaking comfortable now compared to like 2001. So hopefully that will change and has changed over time.

For sure. Yeah, we should definitely do something in all situations, including the Hajj, which is a very interesting test case because we hear about crowd crushes. Sometimes people call them stampedes. And often the crowd gets blamed. This is a recurring theme, how regular people get blamed and the people in charge don't trust the public and so forth.

For sure. Yeah, we should definitely do something in all situations, including the Hajj, which is a very interesting test case because we hear about crowd crushes. Sometimes people call them stampedes. And often the crowd gets blamed. This is a recurring theme, how regular people get blamed and the people in charge don't trust the public and so forth.

But in this case, it's a very good example because the Hajj has been around, this pilgrimage has been around for more than 1,400 years. This is not a new situation. Muslims have journeyed to Mecca, the birthplace of Muhammad, and it's required of every Muslim who can manage it. But the deaths only started recently. Starting around 1990, you started to see these crowd crushes happen, right?

But in this case, it's a very good example because the Hajj has been around, this pilgrimage has been around for more than 1,400 years. This is not a new situation. Muslims have journeyed to Mecca, the birthplace of Muhammad, and it's required of every Muslim who can manage it. But the deaths only started recently. Starting around 1990, you started to see these crowd crushes happen, right?

Now, why is that? Because of the cheaper cost of plane travel, more and more people were coming to the Hajj. And it's a physics problem, ultimately, right? Like the people couldn't fit in the space. But it's even more interesting than that, which is, so in 1990, a crowd crush in a pedestrian tunnel at the Hajj killed 1,400 people in minutes. Just horrific. People from all over the world.

Now, why is that? Because of the cheaper cost of plane travel, more and more people were coming to the Hajj. And it's a physics problem, ultimately, right? Like the people couldn't fit in the space. But it's even more interesting than that, which is, so in 1990, a crowd crush in a pedestrian tunnel at the Hajj killed 1,400 people in minutes. Just horrific. People from all over the world.

And it's a very peaceful, harmonious crowd in general. So it's not like chaos. But here's what happened. By the way, this kept happening at this exact same spot. Four years later, another crush killed more than 270 people. And then 1998, 118 people. 2001, 35 people. It went on and on and on. And they all happened in the same area.

And it's a very peaceful, harmonious crowd in general. So it's not like chaos. But here's what happened. By the way, this kept happening at this exact same spot. Four years later, another crush killed more than 270 people. And then 1998, 118 people. 2001, 35 people. It went on and on and on. And they all happened in the same area.

around these three pillars that all pilgrims must throw stones at as a required ritual of the Hajj. And so this beautiful, holy place somehow had become a killing field for over 2,500 people. Terrible. So it turns out that what happened, so people who study crowd dynamics, it's a lot like studying water flow.

around these three pillars that all pilgrims must throw stones at as a required ritual of the Hajj. And so this beautiful, holy place somehow had become a killing field for over 2,500 people. Terrible. So it turns out that what happened, so people who study crowd dynamics, it's a lot like studying water flow.

So this is a recurring nightmare for many millions of people at this point, evacuating, worrying, recovering, rebuilding, all of this. And it's actually a massive tax on our economy. because this keeps happening over and over. So the bottom line is, if you haven't personally experienced a disaster yet, you probably will, unfortunately. But the upside is that the number of deaths has dropped.

So this is a recurring nightmare for many millions of people at this point, evacuating, worrying, recovering, rebuilding, all of this. And it's actually a massive tax on our economy. because this keeps happening over and over. So the bottom line is, if you haven't personally experienced a disaster yet, you probably will, unfortunately. But the upside is that the number of deaths has dropped.

It's really wild. And for me, it's been really helpful to understand how that works. Because I think we imagine, at least what we see in movies and in our nightmares, right, is people just like climbing all over each other. And that's not at all how it happens. Like in a way, it's more chilling, but in another way, it's less scary.

It's really wild. And for me, it's been really helpful to understand how that works. Because I think we imagine, at least what we see in movies and in our nightmares, right, is people just like climbing all over each other. And that's not at all how it happens. Like in a way, it's more chilling, but in another way, it's less scary.

But here's basically what happens typically in most crowd crushes, in stadiums, in clubs, at the Hajj. So... The density gets to a point where it's very dangerous. And the density of the crowd means that one person way ahead of you can lose their footing and the crowd behind doesn't know. So they keep pushing forward unless there's really good communication, that kind of thing.

But here's basically what happens typically in most crowd crushes, in stadiums, in clubs, at the Hajj. So... The density gets to a point where it's very dangerous. And the density of the crowd means that one person way ahead of you can lose their footing and the crowd behind doesn't know. So they keep pushing forward unless there's really good communication, that kind of thing.

So you can work around this. But. The crowd is just moving forward and they don't know that someone has fallen. And then other people try to help that person, which then creates more of a barrier. Right. And they become obstacles for everybody else. And most people who die in crowd crushes, they die from suffocation. They don't die from being trampled on. They die because they can't breathe.

So you can work around this. But. The crowd is just moving forward and they don't know that someone has fallen. And then other people try to help that person, which then creates more of a barrier. Right. And they become obstacles for everybody else. And most people who die in crowd crushes, they die from suffocation. They don't die from being trampled on. They die because they can't breathe.

It's horrible. But basically, it's the compounding pressure of all of these people moving forward, not knowing, tragically, that someone up front has fallen.

It's horrible. But basically, it's the compounding pressure of all of these people moving forward, not knowing, tragically, that someone up front has fallen.

Yeah, exactly. The biggest problem here, right, is the density, but also the lack of communication. Like the people in back, we have no way of knowing someone's fallen. All we see is a small space opens up in front of us where that person used to be. So what do we do? Just like we always do, right? We fill it up, which puts more pressure on the fallen.

Yeah, exactly. The biggest problem here, right, is the density, but also the lack of communication. Like the people in back, we have no way of knowing someone's fallen. All we see is a small space opens up in front of us where that person used to be. So what do we do? Just like we always do, right? We fill it up, which puts more pressure on the fallen.

You're suffocating people, but you just, you don't know, which is terrible because it turned out that pressure builds up exponentially. So a crowd quickly picks up the same amount of force as a 18-wheeler, as a Mack truck. And humans can lose consciousness after being compressed for just 30 seconds and they become brain dead after six minutes.

You're suffocating people, but you just, you don't know, which is terrible because it turned out that pressure builds up exponentially. So a crowd quickly picks up the same amount of force as a 18-wheeler, as a Mack truck. And humans can lose consciousness after being compressed for just 30 seconds and they become brain dead after six minutes.

They can die without ever falling down just from that sheer pressure. It's the walls are literally closing in. So it's not the kind of panic that we imagine, right? It's not like that at all. That's important to understand because then that indicates how you would prevent crowd crushes. And they are all preventable, right?

They can die without ever falling down just from that sheer pressure. It's the walls are literally closing in. So it's not the kind of panic that we imagine, right? It's not like that at all. That's important to understand because then that indicates how you would prevent crowd crushes. And they are all preventable, right?

This is the thing that is really important to understand because there have been many crowd crushes after which officials, including officials at the Hajj, have blamed the public when, in fact, it was the crowd management that was to blame.

This is the thing that is really important to understand because there have been many crowd crushes after which officials, including officials at the Hajj, have blamed the public when, in fact, it was the crowd management that was to blame.

Yeah, absolutely. And the research on heroism is like really slippery. But I did try to find as much as I could. And what I found is that there definitely is a profile. You're right that the phase of life that you're in really does seem to matter. And this is a fast generalization with very imperfect data. So, you know, don't freak out, everyone listening.

Yeah, absolutely. And the research on heroism is like really slippery. But I did try to find as much as I could. And what I found is that there definitely is a profile. You're right that the phase of life that you're in really does seem to matter. And this is a fast generalization with very imperfect data. So, you know, don't freak out, everyone listening.

But people who become celebrated as heroes, which is different than people who are actually heroes, right? It's a smaller subset, tend to be more likely to be men and more likely to be childless. So that could be for lots of reasons. That could be because they don't feel the fear of leaving their children alone on this earth.

But people who become celebrated as heroes, which is different than people who are actually heroes, right? It's a smaller subset, tend to be more likely to be men and more likely to be childless. So that could be for lots of reasons. That could be because they don't feel the fear of leaving their children alone on this earth.

So to your point about the hurricanes, like in 1990, the National Hurricane Center could predict the path of a hurricane only about 24 hours in advance. That's all you had to get out of the way, which really isn't enough, just based on the way people make decisions about evacuation and also based on the design of dense urban places.

So to your point about the hurricanes, like in 1990, the National Hurricane Center could predict the path of a hurricane only about 24 hours in advance. That's all you had to get out of the way, which really isn't enough, just based on the way people make decisions about evacuation and also based on the design of dense urban places.

Or it could be there are evolutionary theorists who would say it's because they are trying to make sure their reputation is told by a hero.

Or it could be there are evolutionary theorists who would say it's because they are trying to make sure their reputation is told by a hero.

Yeah. Maybe men face more pressures, especially in certain places and times to jump into the freezing water or because maybe they have more experience in swimming in open water. So it's really tricky. But I will say just anecdotally, the heroes that I've interviewed, first of all, they all hate that word. Like they all really resent that word. And what's underneath that? I think it's because

Yeah. Maybe men face more pressures, especially in certain places and times to jump into the freezing water or because maybe they have more experience in swimming in open water. So it's really tricky. But I will say just anecdotally, the heroes that I've interviewed, first of all, they all hate that word. Like they all really resent that word. And what's underneath that? I think it's because

Their experience of it was very different from the way we tell the story. So all the time people will ask heroes, why did you jump in the water? And their thinking is, how could I not? What does it say about you that you're even asking me this question? And typically they explain their behavior by saying, I couldn't have lived with myself if I hadn't done this.

Their experience of it was very different from the way we tell the story. So all the time people will ask heroes, why did you jump in the water? And their thinking is, how could I not? What does it say about you that you're even asking me this question? And typically they explain their behavior by saying, I couldn't have lived with myself if I hadn't done this.

They're weighting different fears for whatever combination of reasons. They dread having to live with themselves knowing they didn't try more than they dread the threat in that situation. So I think for them, they're more afraid of what would happen if they didn't take action. to their own identity and their sense of themselves.

They're weighting different fears for whatever combination of reasons. They dread having to live with themselves knowing they didn't try more than they dread the threat in that situation. So I think for them, they're more afraid of what would happen if they didn't take action. to their own identity and their sense of themselves.

And Roger Olian, who's the one that I profiled who jumped into a freezing river after a plane crash, he said, basically, you're doing it for yourself because you wouldn't want to not do it and face the consequences internally. So in his case, he did not have children. He knew that he was a big, strong guy who was a good swimmer.

And Roger Olian, who's the one that I profiled who jumped into a freezing river after a plane crash, he said, basically, you're doing it for yourself because you wouldn't want to not do it and face the consequences internally. So in his case, he did not have children. He knew that he was a big, strong guy who was a good swimmer.

He knew he wasn't going to reach those people, by the way, because of the ice and the water. But he had military training, which is also very common. Just anecdotally, a lot of the people who engaged in heroics tend to have military training. Who knows if that's causal or not, but he had a kind of biased reaction.

He knew he wasn't going to reach those people, by the way, because of the ice and the water. But he had military training, which is also very common. Just anecdotally, a lot of the people who engaged in heroics tend to have military training. Who knows if that's causal or not, but he had a kind of biased reaction.

He didn't want to spend the rest of his life wondering if he should have done something. And so he did everything he could do. And even though he didn't get to those passengers, they saw him coming. And that was very important to their survival. He survived. Most of them survived because it turned out a helicopter made it through very unexpectedly in this ice storm.

He didn't want to spend the rest of his life wondering if he should have done something. And so he did everything he could do. And even though he didn't get to those passengers, they saw him coming. And that was very important to their survival. He survived. Most of them survived because it turned out a helicopter made it through very unexpectedly in this ice storm.

Yeah, so it's a compound that it appears special forces soldiers tend to produce significantly more of than other people, and it helps you stay focused on a task under stress. So even 24 hours after a mock interrogation, say, or some kind of very intense simulation, special forces soldiers had returned to normal levels of neuropeptide Y while other soldiers remained depleted.

Yeah, so it's a compound that it appears special forces soldiers tend to produce significantly more of than other people, and it helps you stay focused on a task under stress. So even 24 hours after a mock interrogation, say, or some kind of very intense simulation, special forces soldiers had returned to normal levels of neuropeptide Y while other soldiers remained depleted.

So it seems like they have this kind of stockpile maybe for some reason that we don't understand.

So it seems like they have this kind of stockpile maybe for some reason that we don't understand.

Whereas in civilian life, people with anxiety disorders or depression, they tend to have lower levels of neuropeptide Y. So this is some research that has been done specifically for the Army on why some people, especially Green Berets under certain situations, tend to stay relatively calm and perform well.

Whereas in civilian life, people with anxiety disorders or depression, they tend to have lower levels of neuropeptide Y. So this is some research that has been done specifically for the Army on why some people, especially Green Berets under certain situations, tend to stay relatively calm and perform well.

So now the National Hurricane Center can predict the path of a hurricane with pretty good accuracy 72 hours beforehand, which is actually a pretty big difference when it comes to getting out of harm's way.

So now the National Hurricane Center can predict the path of a hurricane with pretty good accuracy 72 hours beforehand, which is actually a pretty big difference when it comes to getting out of harm's way.

And basically, yeah, they found that they seem to remain more mentally clear and we don't fully understand why, but it could have something to do with literally their chemical makeup.

And basically, yeah, they found that they seem to remain more mentally clear and we don't fully understand why, but it could have something to do with literally their chemical makeup.

Yeah, I'm going to not recommend any of that. I don't think we know how to create this. And what we do know, the best way if you want to inject yourself with some calmness for extreme events is to train for them. That's the way. That's the thing we know that helps.

Yeah, I'm going to not recommend any of that. I don't think we know how to create this. And what we do know, the best way if you want to inject yourself with some calmness for extreme events is to train for them. That's the way. That's the thing we know that helps.

Gotta try.

Gotta try.

Oh, I have an even better one for the 20-something guys.

Oh, I have an even better one for the 20-something guys.

This is the thing that also special operators train on, which is practice rhythmic breathing. I know it doesn't sound as sexy as injecting yourself with some very sketchy chemical.

This is the thing that also special operators train on, which is practice rhythmic breathing. I know it doesn't sound as sexy as injecting yourself with some very sketchy chemical.

But literally, you know, I interviewed a police officer who he was a rookie cop. Every time you call in on his radio responding to something serious, his voice would go up like two octaves and his voice would shake, which is a totally normal fear response signal when you're under too much fear. But he was embarrassing, of course.

But literally, you know, I interviewed a police officer who he was a rookie cop. Every time you call in on his radio responding to something serious, his voice would go up like two octaves and his voice would shake, which is a totally normal fear response signal when you're under too much fear. But he was embarrassing, of course.

So he started doing this very clever thing, which we could all do in our own different ways, which is he would play a recording of his siren. And every day for 10 minutes, he would practice doing rhythmic box breathing, which is like in for four counts. hold for four counts, exhale for four, hold for four, and repeat.

So he started doing this very clever thing, which we could all do in our own different ways, which is he would play a recording of his siren. And every day for 10 minutes, he would practice doing rhythmic box breathing, which is like in for four counts. hold for four counts, exhale for four, hold for four, and repeat.

And so he got to a point where every time he heard a siren, he would just automatically do this breathing thing, right? And within a few weeks... All of a sudden, his voice was normal when he called in on the radio, which is actually a very big deal. It's not just that it was less embarrassing. It means that he's not likely to degrade. He's going to keep his eye-hand coordination.

And so he got to a point where every time he heard a siren, he would just automatically do this breathing thing, right? And within a few weeks... All of a sudden, his voice was normal when he called in on the radio, which is actually a very big deal. It's not just that it was less embarrassing. It means that he's not likely to degrade. He's going to keep his eye-hand coordination.

He's going to make better decisions. He's not going to lose his peripheral vision. All the things we talked about earlier are likely to be under control. So that's what I would recommend for everyone listening is practice box breathing regularly. or any kind of rhythm with breathing, especially in stressful situations, so that you can do it automatically.

He's going to make better decisions. He's not going to lose his peripheral vision. All the things we talked about earlier are likely to be under control. So that's what I would recommend for everyone listening is practice box breathing regularly. or any kind of rhythm with breathing, especially in stressful situations, so that you can do it automatically.

It's very difficult and it feels like this can't be right. You know, I used to try to practice it every time I was stressed when I was in traffic. I should do that again. But you don't want to practice it under duress, right? You want to practice it in a low stakes stress situation. So if there's certain things like your kid crying or your wife driving, whatever, that's a good time to practice.

It's very difficult and it feels like this can't be right. You know, I used to try to practice it every time I was stressed when I was in traffic. I should do that again. But you don't want to practice it under duress, right? You want to practice it in a low stakes stress situation. So if there's certain things like your kid crying or your wife driving, whatever, that's a good time to practice.

It's a good idea.

It's a good idea.

Yeah. Or maybe you're the person who leads everyone in a sing-along when you're in a tornado shelter. Like there's all different opportunities, but if you do want to learn more about how to be helpful in a very tangible ways, I would encourage people to check out their local CERT organizations. Every county typically has one. These are ways to get free training in emergency response.

Yeah. Or maybe you're the person who leads everyone in a sing-along when you're in a tornado shelter. Like there's all different opportunities, but if you do want to learn more about how to be helpful in a very tangible ways, I would encourage people to check out their local CERT organizations. Every county typically has one. These are ways to get free training in emergency response.

And so that's one thing you could do. And also just understand what to expect so that you won't be shocked if and when it happens.

And so that's one thing you could do. And also just understand what to expect so that you won't be shocked if and when it happens.

So it was a certain course that you took.

So it was a certain course that you took.

It's like too much.

It's like too much.

In our modern world, we've become very interdependent. We don't know how to do things that we, for most of our history, knew how to do. So Yeah, I think it's helpful just to have some sense of your own agency. So for people who might be interested, the CERT stands for Community Emergency Response Team. So that's what you want to Google. And again, they're locally run.

In our modern world, we've become very interdependent. We don't know how to do things that we, for most of our history, knew how to do. So Yeah, I think it's helpful just to have some sense of your own agency. So for people who might be interested, the CERT stands for Community Emergency Response Team. So that's what you want to Google. And again, they're locally run.

Some are much better than others, but it's worth checking out if you're interested.

Some are much better than others, but it's worth checking out if you're interested.

Thanks for having me, Jordan. It was fun. Appreciate it.

Thanks for having me, Jordan. It was fun. Appreciate it.

Exactly. Which you're not going to do. You're asleep for the first six hours. Then you hear about it. You're like, I'm sure it's nothing. So we typically go through a period of denial and disbelief in every disaster. And you have to kind of build that in and expect that'll happen. But on average, before people evacuate in particular, they check with at least five sources.

Exactly. Which you're not going to do. You're asleep for the first six hours. Then you hear about it. You're like, I'm sure it's nothing. So we typically go through a period of denial and disbelief in every disaster. And you have to kind of build that in and expect that'll happen. But on average, before people evacuate in particular, they check with at least five sources.

So that deliberation piece you mentioned is really important, but also really time consuming. So time is really important. And we have more of it than we did. Not as much as we'd like, but there is more than we used to have.

So that deliberation piece you mentioned is really important, but also really time consuming. So time is really important. And we have more of it than we did. Not as much as we'd like, but there is more than we used to have.

Yeah. One of the things I noticed in doing the new edition of The Unthinkable is that one of the changes that's happened is that we're just living in a very low trust climate for a lot of reasons. And it's not just that people don't trust institutions or the news media. It's also that those institutions don't trust the people.

Yeah. One of the things I noticed in doing the new edition of The Unthinkable is that one of the changes that's happened is that we're just living in a very low trust climate for a lot of reasons. And it's not just that people don't trust institutions or the news media. It's also that those institutions don't trust the people.

And it's also which causes a lot of deaths in disasters because information gets withheld and so forth. But also that people don't trust each other, their neighbors as much. And it turns out that in most disasters, the people who will matter most, who will save you and who you will save are regular people like you and me. It's your neighbors, your coworkers, strangers on a bus.

And it's also which causes a lot of deaths in disasters because information gets withheld and so forth. But also that people don't trust each other, their neighbors as much. And it turns out that in most disasters, the people who will matter most, who will save you and who you will save are regular people like you and me. It's your neighbors, your coworkers, strangers on a bus.

It's not first responders or the people you might think of because it just takes too long for them to get there. But regular people really matter. So that trust piece is extremely important. We can design all this great new forecasting technology and vaccines and what have you. And that's awesome. But if people don't trust them, then it doesn't really matter.

It's not first responders or the people you might think of because it just takes too long for them to get there. But regular people really matter. So that trust piece is extremely important. We can design all this great new forecasting technology and vaccines and what have you. And that's awesome. But if people don't trust them, then it doesn't really matter.

Yeah, let's do that. So one of the things I noticed when I was covering a lot of disasters for Time magazine is that the things that the survivors told me were very different than what I'd expected. They were very different than what they had expected. They had specific lessons they wanted the rest of us to know, and many of them were actually positive.

Yeah, let's do that. So one of the things I noticed when I was covering a lot of disasters for Time magazine is that the things that the survivors told me were very different than what I'd expected. They were very different than what they had expected. They had specific lessons they wanted the rest of us to know, and many of them were actually positive.

In other words, they had not freaked out in the way that they expected. They had freaked out in much more subtle ways. And I'll get back to that. They found that other people, including strangers, were all of a sudden much better behaved than normal. So rather than the kind of mob mentality, every man for himself that we imagine from movies, in fact,

In other words, they had not freaked out in the way that they expected. They had freaked out in much more subtle ways. And I'll get back to that. They found that other people, including strangers, were all of a sudden much better behaved than normal. So rather than the kind of mob mentality, every man for himself that we imagine from movies, in fact,

It turns out that in most disasters, the people who will matter most, who will save you and who you will save, are regular people like you and me. It's your neighbors, your co-workers, strangers on a bus. We can design all this great new forecasting technology and vaccines and what have you, and that's awesome. But if people don't trust them, then it doesn't really matter.

It turns out that in most disasters, the people who will matter most, who will save you and who you will save, are regular people like you and me. It's your neighbors, your co-workers, strangers on a bus. We can design all this great new forecasting technology and vaccines and what have you, and that's awesome. But if people don't trust them, then it doesn't really matter.

Humans tend to become polite and courteous and cooperative almost to a fault in most disasters for, again, for evolutionary reasons. But there's a good reason to do that. So those things are surprising. And if you don't know to expect that, you're going to prepare differently.

Humans tend to become polite and courteous and cooperative almost to a fault in most disasters for, again, for evolutionary reasons. But there's a good reason to do that. So those things are surprising. And if you don't know to expect that, you're going to prepare differently.

If you don't know that your biggest challenge will not be panic, but actually a total lethargy, like a shutting down, that is the biggest, most common mistake that people make in disasters, as opposed to punching each other out and just widespread mayhem.

If you don't know that your biggest challenge will not be panic, but actually a total lethargy, like a shutting down, that is the biggest, most common mistake that people make in disasters, as opposed to punching each other out and just widespread mayhem.

having a default bias for hostility is going to not serve you well in most disasters because actually your best ally are the people around you.

having a default bias for hostility is going to not serve you well in most disasters because actually your best ally are the people around you.

It's awesome that you're thinking about that because that is right.

It's awesome that you're thinking about that because that is right.

Yeah. And I mean, look, I can understand why some people are afraid of one another. And some people have experiences that justify that fear. And a lot of people are consuming news, which my business is very much complicit in, that makes them afraid of their neighbors. And I don't think it's a simple equation. And it does vary depending on the place and the person, all of these things.

Yeah. And I mean, look, I can understand why some people are afraid of one another. And some people have experiences that justify that fear. And a lot of people are consuming news, which my business is very much complicit in, that makes them afraid of their neighbors. And I don't think it's a simple equation. And it does vary depending on the place and the person, all of these things.

But one thing I can tell you for sure is that people tend to behave better in disasters than we expect. And we really need each other very suddenly. So yeah, pro-social preparation is probably going to serve you better.

But one thing I can tell you for sure is that people tend to behave better in disasters than we expect. And we really need each other very suddenly. So yeah, pro-social preparation is probably going to serve you better.

I think the food and water thing is fine, but I don't think it's very compelling. I think it's like too small of a frame. For me, the best kind of preparation to do, and I actually, it sounds like you do do this, so I wouldn't undermine yourself. You have relationships with your neighbors. It sounds like who needs help, who can do what, you know, and that is actually huge.

I think the food and water thing is fine, but I don't think it's very compelling. I think it's like too small of a frame. For me, the best kind of preparation to do, and I actually, it sounds like you do do this, so I wouldn't undermine yourself. You have relationships with your neighbors. It sounds like who needs help, who can do what, you know, and that is actually huge.

So one of the things that I've tried to change in my own life, having done a lot of this reporting, is I've to really get to know my neighbors better and take those opportunities, right? So it's not just about stockpiling water.

So one of the things that I've tried to change in my own life, having done a lot of this reporting, is I've to really get to know my neighbors better and take those opportunities, right? So it's not just about stockpiling water.

It's about building relationship, understanding who has a generator, who is elderly, but also like just knowing each other so we can trust each other, we can call on each other. The beauty of that is you reap rewards from that whether or not there's a disaster.

It's about building relationship, understanding who has a generator, who is elderly, but also like just knowing each other so we can trust each other, we can call on each other. The beauty of that is you reap rewards from that whether or not there's a disaster.

And so I really encourage people to think about what they can do that's going to be good for them and their community right away, no matter what happens. Because there's a lot you can't predict. Being in a relationship, being able to laugh at a shared joke and being able to share recipes and being able to call someone if your kid is sick. Those things really matter.

And so I really encourage people to think about what they can do that's going to be good for them and their community right away, no matter what happens. Because there's a lot you can't predict. Being in a relationship, being able to laugh at a shared joke and being able to share recipes and being able to call someone if your kid is sick. Those things really matter.

And they make life better right now, regardless of what happens with the hurricane.

Yeah, you say it and I'm like, that's a little cynical, Amanda. But it is the case that emergency plans are designed with the minds of emergency manager, right? It's like sometimes they're not thinking about the public and it's hard to get yourself out of your own head into the minds of the public. So let's give me an example. OK, you've heard of hurricane watches and hurricane warnings.

Right. Because who could? That's a ridiculous way to communicate with humans. And yet it's actually a really big difference. So watch means it might happen. It might not. Warning is be on alert.

Yeah. This is particularly true with tornadoes. Right. And this is a very big deal. Like tornadoes are very hard to predict. They can happen anytime, anywhere. So the difference between a tornado watch and a tornado warning is really important. And so if you were thinking about this like the public does or any human who's not an expert, you would not use a W word for both, right?

Just like in any expert field, people have blinders on when it comes to what people need to hear and understand. So There are exceptions to this, right? There are some incredibly creative, empathetic and open-minded emergency managers all over this country. But in general, yeah, I think that a lot of plans are designed not according to how humans actually operate in disasters.

So this is a great, a small example, but a great example. Another one would be I was on the subway in D.C. where I live and an alert, like a warning came on over the loudspeaker and it said, in case of emergency, do not panic and listen for further instruction. So it's like, first of all, anytime anyone in charge tells you not to panic, you know you're in trouble.

Because it signals that they don't trust you and that they also don't understand how humans normally behave in disasters, which, again, is not to panic. But then to just say, you know, be passive, don't get in our way, listen, and we'll tell you what to do, again, is a total misunderstanding of how most disasters work.

So usually everyone needs to be equipped with some baseline amount of knowledge about their risks and their environment. And then you're going to be much better off as the whole collective. But those kinds of warnings reveal a bias against the public and also just an unintentional ignorance about how people behave.

Yes, I think you're talking about the July 7th, 2005 terrorist attack on London buses and subway trains, which killed 52 people, I believe. Afterward, you heard a lot about the city's extensive surveillance camera system. which helped with the investigation. But less well known is how unhelpful technology was to regular people on trains in the moment.

So the official report on the response found one overarching fundamental lesson, which is that emergency plans had been designed to meet the needs of emergency officials. not regular people. So passengers had no way, for example, to let the train drivers know that there had been an explosion. Big problem. They also had trouble getting out.

The train doors weren't designed to be opened by passengers, and they couldn't find first aid kits to treat the wounded, which turned out all those supplies were kept in subway supervisors' offices, not on the trains. So there's a lot of examples like this, but the point is, unless you are thinking about the public as your ally, as...

your first line of emergency responders, you're going to make mistakes in how you plan for disasters, especially if you're thinking about them as the enemy, if you're thinking about them as like your adversary.

If you kept it on the trains, some kid's going to steal it and it's going to be a mess. There's going to be Band-Aids everywhere. It's going to be chaos.

OK, I am relying on estimates from folks who do this kind of forecasting. It's very difficult. Meta Bayada is the one that I specifically use, but they do estimates of what are the chances we'll see another pandemic that kills at least as many people And actually, the chances that we'll see another pandemic that does that before 2050 is about 50-50. So that's terrifying. We don't know, right?

That's the bottom line. Another big reason for the increase in disasters, it's not just climate change, but it's also that we've changed where we build and how we live. So the way that we've become so interdependent, the way that we've become so mobile, right? All of those things have made us much more vulnerable to pandemics. It's a complicated, perfect storm of different things.

And I agree that because humans always overweight their past personal experience when assessing future risk. So it's not a new problem for us. We know that with hurricanes, for example, if there was a forecast for a really terrible hurricane and everyone evacuated or most people evacuated and then it didn't hit, right, or it wasn't as bad.

then we know that the next hurricane people will probably under react and the reverse is true that people sometimes overreact if there was a unusually bad hurricane so this is a problem we know about and that's the good news it seems we know how to deal with that but it is hard it is hard to undo the damage that has been done by the last pandemic.

Yeah, I mean, and now we're talking about polarization. So political polarization means that a lot of people will tend to do the opposite of what their enemy says to do. So the more former President Trump insisted that we reopen schools, the more entrenched you saw the resistance among some of the teacher union leaders. But it was almost like it's a diabolical problem, right?

Any kind of intractable conflict like that, because people will start to just react as opposed to trying to make an informed decision. And I think, look, at the same time, I know for myself, if I look back at it, and I spent a long time looking back at it, it was not easy doing the update for this book. I found that I was frequently either underreacting or overreacting to the pandemic.

Like I was either in total denial and not doing enough or I was overdoing it and yelling at my husband for using a public bathroom. Do you know what I mean?

It is very tricky to calibrate. And if there's low trust, then you end up maybe overtrusting some people and undermining others. No matter what they say, you're going to do the opposite.

And we say screwed it up, but it also just objectively is hard. Like it's an unknown and it's constantly moving. And the reality is we just don't make decisions based on cold, hard calculus of risk. That's just not how humans work. I keep having to remind myself how social we are as creatures. And so much of our decisions are about what people around us are doing and what people think.

in our culture or community are doing. And I remember vividly, this is embarrassing, but I remember when I had to travel, which I did quite a bit for work during the pandemic, I would change my behavior depending on which state I was in. Like I'd fly to Florida and no one's wearing a mask. We're in these like crowded rooms. And at first I'd be really freaked out

And then by after day two, I wouldn't be wearing a mask. And then I get on a plane, fly back to D.C., where everyone was always pretty uptight about this. And I would put my mask back on. You could actually see the hypocrisy in real time. But you're trying to fit in. You're trying to like subconsciously or consciously do what others are doing. And that changes very quickly from place to place.

Remove it to talk to you.

You know, what's wild is it really varies depending on your role in the situation. So let me give you an example.

When they study building fires like theater fires or department store fires or stadium fires, people who are working for minimum wage as busboys or whatever servers in that restaurant, they will go to incredible over the top ends to help people and things that are just really not in their pay grade. But because their role is as helper and their role is as host or what have you.

That tends to extend the situation. But the diners or plane passengers or others will become very passive, typically. and kind of wait to be told exactly what to do, which can be deadly. Every firefighter pretty much has a story about going into a crowded bar or a restaurant and there's like smoke just filling the ceiling, right? And nobody's doing anything. Everybody's just joking and laughing.

And so I think that it's an unsatisfying answer, but I think our behavior varies depending on our role in that moment.

This is what I'm saying. You defer to the people around you. If a smoke detector went off right now, what's the first thing you do? You look around. If there's other people in the building, you look around and what are they doing? That is the first thing we do. And There's good evolutionary reasons for that, but it can be a problem.

It's actually a great example of what you talked about with the bystander non-intervention problem because... The same exact thing holds in plane crashes or other kinds of disasters. If you give people specific assertive commands, they will comply. They will help. But it's very helpful to say very clearly and loudly, you in the green shirt, call 911 or get up and get out of the plane.

So this is what the flight attendants are now trained to do. Most plane crashes are actually survivable, which always surprises people.

Exactly. But it turns out most plane crashes end up the planes on the ground, but on fire. So you have very little time to get off before that smoke gets really toxic. So the whole game is getting off quickly. And what they found is in the 70s, there was a series of passenger plane crashes where, again, people had time to get off.

And then they found them just dead in their seats with their hands crossed across their laps. And the reason I talk about plane crashes, by the way, is not because they're likely to happen, thank God, but because there's a lot of money spent on studying human behavior in plane crashes. And the behavior is very similar in different disasters. So we can learn a lot from that.

So there are sociologists and psychologists who work for the National Transportation Safety Board and study plane crashes. And one of the things they learned is that if you give people very direct orders about then they will move. So flight attendants, I did some training with them for the book, and they will literally scream at you, get out of the plane, leave your carry-on, don't take your bags.

And that helps a lot. So if you are in a situation and you happen to know how to get out or what to do, it is important to realize that if you step into that leadership role, people will follow.

Yes. With another one on the way.

Right. Exactly. Yeah. What happened to your friend?

Well, and Jordan, why do you think you reacted the way you reacted?

It wasn't like your world is imploding.

Yeah, you never want to see that. And how did people react when you did give them assertive orders?

Okay, this is actually a really interesting question, because disasters happen quite frequently, and they've gotten more frequent since I wrote the original book. So there's kind of an interesting paradox here, and it gets more hopeful. From 2011 to 2021, 90% of American counties went through a federally declared disaster. So That's a lot of people.

It's probably a combination of things, right? Like you said, you add some distance from this particular person so you could look at it without as much shock and awe and that kind of thing. But also maybe you had experiences like this so you know that things can go upside down really quickly and you're not stuck in that denial phase as long as others might be.

So that's something that we know that people do spend a good deal of time trying to fit what's happening into their like brain's library of everything that's happened before. So if it doesn't fit, right, then that's going to really slow you down.

Wow. Yes, that's a great example, right, where your brain will come up with every possible creative explanation for what's happening to normalize it, to make it seem like a normal time. And this happens even with trained, experienced pilots whose plane is about to crash, as they report saying afterward, you know, I'm not a person who crashes airplanes, just like you said.

I'm not a person who gets kidnapped. So this is something we should expect. Now, the good news is if you know that denial is possible, definitely going to happen to you in almost every scenario like this, then you can sometimes notice it happening and push through it more quickly. I know I've done that myself.

For whatever reason, been in a couple of different gunshot incidents recently, gunfire incidents. I was fine. But because I know that other people around me will, depending on the situation, deny and disbelieve what's happening, I know not to trust their cues necessarily. If I hear a gunshot, I know what that is. So I'm going to take action.

This is the kind of thing where just a little bit of knowledge can be really helpful. Otherwise, you can really get stuck in that phase.

Right. And, you know, you're not driving.

Yeah. It's very delicate. You want everything to be OK. And you also don't want to create friction with this person. I've definitely been in a situation with Uber drivers or cab drivers. It's pretty terrifying. And it's good that you realized it because you're right. Today, you'd be on the phone and you would just be not even noticing.

90% of the population essentially live in or very near a disaster zone. So we have quite a lot of disasters and weather and geological disasters specifically have increased about 400% over the past 50 years. But going back to your point about Haiti, we've actually gotten much better disasters. at surviving them over the same time period, which is kind of interesting.

Wow.

That is wild. Yeah. I'm amazed your brother-in-law had the conviction to do that. You know, I think it's easy to think, you don't know from Istanbul, right? Right.

That is wild. So he must have like a sixth sense. There are stories from 9-11 people who evacuated the Trade Center. Elia, who I write about in the book, she remembers vividly being in the staircase. So you spent a lot of time. It basically took people at least a minute per floor to evacuate. So if you're on the 20th or 30th floor, we're talking a while.

And then most people didn't leave for at least six or seven minutes after the impact for a bunch of reasons. But she's in the stairs. She hears that the reason that there had been this very dramatic shaking of the building was that a plane had crashed into it. So her first thought, she comes up with a story just like that, right? That's how the brain works is we are story processing machines.

And the first story she told herself was, oh, the pilot must have had a heart attack. And she remembers feeling sorry for the pilot. And so then the second plane hits. And then she decides that it must have been two pilots and they were racing. And she's annoyed with them now, right? So you see how she's coming up with different stories, all of which are like actually more benign than the reality.

Finally, as she's descending and spinning on this and talking to other people in the stairwell, she realizes they wouldn't have hit that far apart if they were racing. And that doesn't actually compute. And then she had the thought, we are at war. That was the first story that entered her mind.

And so one of the reasons your brain doesn't want you to always grapple with this reality is because it's overwhelming. And shortly after that, Elia lost her sight. She literally couldn't see. She stopped moving. Yeah, this happens in extreme events where people lose their sense of sound, their sense of sight.

And our best theory, right, is that your brain is trying to control the inputs so that you can survive. And it becomes overwhelming. She had at that moment walked out onto the mezzanine outside of the World Trade Center and seen that this was not a small event. There were bodies on the ground. And so it was too much for her to process.

So like a lot of people, almost everyone I interviewed who evacuated on 9-11, It was a stranger who came and took her by the elbow and said, we're getting out of here. And to this day, she never saw her face because she lost vision, right, momentarily. But it was because of her. So this is important because it leads to the second phase after denial, which is deliberation, which we've talked about.

But this social piece of it can be very powerful. And that is most people have a story like this on 9-11. They did not get out alone.

I've interviewed police officers who fired their guns and never heard it, never heard the gun go off and didn't have their ears ringing, even though they weren't wearing ear protection. So it's totally counter to our understanding of hearing. But it reminds you that all the time your brain is censoring the input and syncing them up and deciding what you will and will not notice, so to speak.

So the number of deaths has dropped by about two thirds over the past 50 years. So disasters have gotten more frequent, more destructive, financially speaking, and less deadly. But in there is a lot of hope and a lot of reason to do things differently, because the reason the same earthquake can hit Florida and cause minimal damage and then wipe out

In extreme events, things can get pretty wacky pretty quickly as your brain tries to figure out how to survive. God.

Yeah, I think it's less sentimental, although I'm sure that was part of it, and more a delay tactic. What Elia described was she did not want to leave. Like every fiber in her being wanted someone to tell her to chill out and go back to work. So she remembers walking in circles in her cubicle, looking for things to take with her.

Luckily, in her case, another co-worker yelled, get out of the building. Otherwise, who knows if she would have made it out. But she took a novel she was reading. She was like, it's a way to kind of normalize the situation. default to what you normally do, right? You normally, when you leave an airplane, you first get your overhead bag. And so this is how we normally behave.

And we will default to that sometimes without some clear guidance.

And I think if I remember, this started for him, right, when he was a little kid and he was playing on a construction site and he fell, right?

He fell like 12 feet. And he remembers that the fall took forever. And so it was really slow. And you hear this from people who've been in life or death situations is that it feels like everything is in slow motion. So he's trying to figure out why that is and what's going on in your brain.

They would have researched something much more pleasant.

Yes. This is wild, right? Like people tend to lose 20% of their peripheral vision when they're on the phone and it actually stays offline for them for like 5, 10, 15 minutes after they hang up or after they put the phone down. It reminds me of, have you read about how like they... Car accident rate seems to be higher in the U.S. right now compared to Europe.

And one of the theories is because when you drive with a stick shift, which is most cars in Europe, you can't hold your phone. You just can't.

Yeah. So you're like a little bit more focused than you might be in the U.S. with an automatic transmission.

Yeah. And that's one thing on the freeway. But we know from the research that in disasters, people's field of sight shrinks by about 70 percent. So it's literally like they're peering out of a keyhole. They can describe the gun that was pointing at them in intricate detail, but not the person pointing it.

Your brain can misfire in these situations and some of your powers will get stronger and some will disappear.

Yeah, I think the idea, the theory at least, is that you're fixated on the threat. If you were being attacked by a tiger, you would want to know where that tiger's jaw is. That makes sense. The thing is, focusing on a gun, the gun itself isn't necessarily going to help you as much, particularly identify the person later. So it's about modern threats usually versus primitive, primordial threats.

Entire cities and other places or the same storm, earthquake, you name it. It's because of the things we have done to protect ourselves, notably building codes, major ones. So it's this really interesting duality where things are getting worse and better at the same time.

But all of this is because we're under the influence of stress hormones. Stress hormones are like hallucinogenic drugs at this level. And no one I've interviewed has gone through an ordeal like this without some kind of altered reality. In one study of shootings of civilians by police officers, 94% of them These are trained, allegedly trained police officers.

94% experienced at least one significant distortion. But very few of them knew to expect that. So they lost their vision or sight or sound or something was weird. Like things slowed down. Sometimes things speed up for people. Sometimes things get distorted in different ways. We don't really understand why that is, but it seems to be a kind of haphazard, ham-fisted attempt by your brain to help you.

Wow. I'm starting to see why you reacted pretty quickly. Yeah. Between the kidnapping attempts and the gunshot at close range.

That's a lot.

Yeah, it depends on the situation. But sometimes there's a way in which your brain is trying to figure out what is the best response here. And for most people listening to the show, they're probably not in an instantaneous life or death situation. And so sometimes denial is evolutionarily appropriate. It's a way to make sense of the world.

We have no other way to make sense of the world except pattern recognition. We wouldn't have evolved this way if it didn't help us. But it's always in retrospect that you know, oh, I'm so glad that I didn't overreact and it just turned out to be fireworks. But then if it is actually gunshots, you're like, why am I such an idiot?

Right. Like it's only a retrospect. Yeah. But it could also be that you already experienced close range gunfire. You have like a muscle memory for what gunfire actually sounds like.

And it didn't trigger that. Right. So you maybe had some reason to downplay that threat. But yeah, it's only in retrospect. These things are very easy to look at in retrospect and decide who's an idiot and who's not. But in the moment, it's very tricky. It's very tricky.

It's interesting because I used to think of disasters pretty narrowly, like you're saying, like weather disasters and that kind of thing. increasingly, the more I've looked at the research, the more similar human behavior is across all those different things you mentioned. So we get into an evolutionarily designed state in these situations.

Yeah. And people will often go for the exit they came in on. Like you have to have some situational awareness to even know that there's another exit. And you often will find people who've been in fires in the past tend to notice where exits are because they're aware of that problem. And people can be trained on this pretty quickly. You've been in theaters before the play or whatever they'll say.

Just so you know, there's an exit here, there's an exit here. There's small things that you can do to give people a little bit of an advantage in that situation. But my only thought would be when you say, you know, my risk calculus failed me. I think the reality is we are never as rational as we want to think. That's just not how we make decisions.

In fact, the technical term for how we decide what is a threat and what is not is dread, which I think is a great word because it so aptly fits the emotion it describes, right? So if you think about dread, it's all our evolutionary fears, hopes, lessons, prejudices, distortions in one kind of X factor.

And if you break it down into its pieces from what we know about how humans experience dread, it's the function of about six different variables. Whether a threat feels uncontrollable to you, Right.

Whether it feels unfamiliar, whether you can imagine it, even if it's unfamiliar, you've seen enough movies about it, for example, whether there's a lot of suffering and the scale of the destruction and whether it's unfair. None of those are about the probability and the cost and the benefit analysis. They're all about emotional things.

So if this is why we feel safer driving technically, then we probably should because it feels controllable.

Oh, me too. My husband does more of the driving. I'm glad to see that we've got the genders reversed here. At least we're mixing it up.

That's what I'm saying. Exactly. I'm with you 100%. And because I'm more aware of the risk, which in this case, I feel like I am more rational, like just for the record. But yeah, typically when things feel like we're controlling them, we're less afraid of driving typically than we are of being in a plane crash because we're not flying it. Right. And we feel out of control.

Or if something feels like there's going to be more suffering, even if it's the same amount of dying or risks, like cancer is much scarier to people than heart attacks and that kind of thing. So there's this complicated alchemy that we are subject to when it comes to dread. And it's never as cut and dry as it seems.

So whether it's a slow-moving disaster, like a toxic train disaster, hazardous spill, or a pandemic, right, or a fast-moving disaster, you do see people go through the same stages. And that doesn't mean that those differences don't matter. They definitely do matter. Humans in general are much better at recovering from events that end quickly so that there is some safety to recover in.

And it wouldn't have mattered, though.

As a result, I know I'm with you, man. I had the same reaction, but it doesn't help. Like we have to workshop this at another time. But how do you tell this to someone so that they will hear it? And that's the real question, because after 9-11, the chance of dying on a major domestic commercial airplane flight, putting aside the actual terrorist attacks was roughly eight in one hundred million.

OK, between 1992 and 2001, driving the same distance. as an average flight segment, is about 65 times riskier. And we saw the same thing, by the way, the same people make the same mistake during the pandemic, where flying remained dramatically safer than driving. It didn't feel safer, right? The dread factor was much higher.

So as of September 2020, the probability of dying of COVID-19 after catching on an airplane was less than one in 4.7 million. But getting onto a crowded airplane felt more dangerous, right?

This can't be safe. Right? This can't be safe.

We all know.

Absolutely. So once the research was done, often the research doesn't get done until way after the headlines, right? So that's why you get this disconnect. But there was an analysis of 486 Hurricane Katrina victims that found that they were not disproportionately poor or Black. That in fact, if you're looking at all the variants and evacuation behavior, income accounts for some of it.

So does race, but no more than 5 or 10 percentage points. What really accounts for the differences, and this is going to sound squishy, are people's beliefs. So it's their beliefs about how dreadful the threat is, how solid their house is. Also, can they trust that it will be safe if they leave it, right? Going back to trust. And also, how terrible will the evacuation experience be?

So basically, age turned out to be very important in determining who left before Hurricane Katrina, because elderly people had lived through a bunch of hurricanes, some of which were, in fact, worse than Katrina. But many other things had changed, making Katrina more dangerous. And they knew that they would have to get into a crowded car with their grandkids and the dog and it would be terrible.

And so they were weighing these risks and obviously preferencing their own personal experience, which is pretty normal.

Yeah. I mean, kids can be incredible messengers for this kind of stuff. This is why firefighters are always showing up at schools, right? Because kids get into this if you do it the right way and they'll remember and they'll become evangelical about it. And so Tilly Smith is who you're talking about, who was on the beach in Thailand on vacation with her parents.

And she saw the indicators, the warning signs, the natural warning signs of a looming tsunami, which most people in most places don't know. But she knew them because she learned them in her geography class. I think she was 12. She had just learned them in school. And so she saw that the ocean receded, got very shallow and weird.

Fish were flopping around on the sand and people were all going towards the water, staring at this or marking on this. I have photos of And she said to her parents, I think there's going to be a tsunami. And so they did what most parents would do, which is to be like, it's fine. But to her credit, kids aren't as worried about being embarrassed until they get a little older, I guess.

But she wasn't worried about that. And so she really insisted. She sat down on the beach. She said, I'm just going to be a tsunami. And so her dad took her back to the hotel and said, yeah, I'm a little embarrassed. My daughter thinks there might be a tsunami coming. What do you guys think? And there happened to be another guy walking by.

And he said, you know, there was an earthquake earlier today. So it's not impossible. And they cleared that beach and they saved many people's lives as a result of that little girl's warning.

But the behavior is surprisingly similar across really different kinds of events.

Kids say so much, you know what I mean? And they don't always get the respect that they deserve.

Yeah. Yeah. Do you want to guess?

Some of it will be kind of unsurprising, but some of it is surprising. So men are more likely to be killed by lightning, hurricanes and fires. Nearly twice as many men as women die in fires, according to the U.S. Fire Administration. So why is that? It is a bunch of reasons. Typically, more men doing more dangerous jobs that are at risk of fire, right?

But it's also because men take more risks overall. This is a generalization, but on average, men are more likely to walk towards smoke and drive through floods. So a lot of people, how they die in disasters is driving through standing water. If people remember nothing else from this conversation, please know this. that driving through standing water is very dangerous.

You can't tell how deep it is. Whereas on average, not always, women tend to be more cautious. So they're earlier to evacuate. They're less likely to drive through standing water. They're less likely to stay outside when there's lightning. And this in some ways is a luxury, right?

If you don't think you're going to be called weak and made fun of for going inside in the lightning storm, it's a lot easier to go inside. Or if it's not your job to be outside in a lightning storm. So it's complicated.

Especially, put it more charitably, if you're living in a culture that doesn't give men a lot of leeway. But yes, yes, Jordan, that is right.

You don't want to be that person, right?

But I bet in a different situation on a different day, you would react differently. I mean, we've seen that, right, from your stories. It depends on your mood, right? Are you hungry? Are you annoyed? There's a bunch of things. But we do know that there are some cases where it's better to be a man than a woman in a disaster.

So here's a ridiculous example, but it does matter, which is on 9-11, women were almost twice as likely to get injured while evacuating. And that was because of their shoes. So they were wearing shoes that were uncomfortable and you do a lot of walking to evacuate a skyscraper.

And so they would take off their shoes and then they would step on glass and people would trip on their shoes and different things. So that's one thing. And another thing is in countries where women are not typically encouraged or allowed to learn how to swim, which was a lot of countries that were hit by the tsunami, they had wildly worse death rates, women. So women and girls.

There's a lot of ways that the culture and biology can inform this, but not always the ways that we expect.

Yeah, it sounds like I'm being really harsh, but the statistics are pretty clear that on average, obese people tend to move more slowly. They're more vulnerable to secondary injuries like heart attacks, which you can have in a disaster. Many people do. Many firefighters die that way. And they have a harder time physically recovering from any injuries they do sustain.

On 9-11, people who had low physical ability for many reasons, including obesity, were three times as likely to be hurt while evacuating the towers. Even though like many people were helped, there were lots of co-workers who carried disabled co-workers out of the towers at great personal risk and effort.

Yes, it is true that these things can conspire to make it much harder for you to survive for a lot of reasons and also harder to recover, right? We talk about surviving, but we also want to recover. Like we want to have a full life again. And that really matters. And there's a lot of factors that can make that harder or easier.

Yeah, look, there's so many different dimensions that we bring to these situations. Like if I'm obese trying to evacuate a skyscraper, yeah, I'm going to slow that process down. But maybe also I know where the stairs are and I have helped my office prepare for, unlike most offices in the Trade Center, we've done some actual training on where the staircases are. We know how they work.

Like maybe, yeah, I'm wearing heels. And so then I take them off, which makes me more likely to get injured. But then in other ways, like I'm incredibly... compassionate and cooperative. There's not just one way in which we show up at these things, just like every day. But it is true that we know safety engineers have had to adjust for the size of Americans.

The size, as Americans have gotten bigger, it changes the crowd dynamics. When people walk down the staircase, for example, they sway slightly from side to side, which takes up more space than our actual body width. So the heavier people are, the slower they move and the more they sway. And that means fewer people can fit down the staircase. This is just a physics problem.

You've literally captured the exact paradox, right? So... Yes, disasters are getting more frequent. And we are talking about back-to-back storms. Right now, we were not a month ago. So there is some cyclical seasonal variance. But just last year, there were 28 major weather and climate disasters costing a total of $93 billion.

And the answer to that is not to shame people, but to say, look, this is the reality. This is a heightened risk. We need to maybe make staircases and escalators wider. That would be one thing. But we also need to help people prepare for the risks that they face, regardless of their individual challenges.

You know what? It's funny. I just found under my desk, because I lived in New York City on 9-11 and I was covering a lot of disasters, so I was probably a little tweaked, but I would keep, you know, extra old pair of sneakers in my desk. And I just came across him because I moved out of that office. And I realized, you know what?

There's been real progress, which is I no longer need to keep sneakers because all my shoes are so freaking comfortable now compared to like 2001. So hopefully that will change and has changed over time.

For sure. Yeah, we should definitely do something in all situations, including the Hajj, which is a very interesting test case because we hear about crowd crushes. Sometimes people call them stampedes. And often the crowd gets blamed. This is a recurring theme, how regular people get blamed and the people in charge don't trust the public and so forth.

But in this case, it's a very good example because the Hajj has been around, this pilgrimage has been around for more than 1,400 years. This is not a new situation. Muslims have journeyed to Mecca, the birthplace of Muhammad, and it's required of every Muslim who can manage it. But the deaths only started recently. Starting around 1990, you started to see these crowd crushes happen, right?

Now, why is that? Because of the cheaper cost of plane travel, more and more people were coming to the Hajj. And it's a physics problem, ultimately, right? Like the people couldn't fit in the space. But it's even more interesting than that, which is, so in 1990, a crowd crush in a pedestrian tunnel at the Hajj killed 1,400 people in minutes. Just horrific. People from all over the world.

And it's a very peaceful, harmonious crowd in general. So it's not like chaos. But here's what happened. By the way, this kept happening at this exact same spot. Four years later, another crush killed more than 270 people. And then 1998, 118 people. 2001, 35 people. It went on and on and on. And they all happened in the same area.

around these three pillars that all pilgrims must throw stones at as a required ritual of the Hajj. And so this beautiful, holy place somehow had become a killing field for over 2,500 people. Terrible. So it turns out that what happened, so people who study crowd dynamics, it's a lot like studying water flow.

So this is a recurring nightmare for many millions of people at this point, evacuating, worrying, recovering, rebuilding, all of this. And it's actually a massive tax on our economy. because this keeps happening over and over. So the bottom line is, if you haven't personally experienced a disaster yet, you probably will, unfortunately. But the upside is that the number of deaths has dropped.

It's really wild. And for me, it's been really helpful to understand how that works. Because I think we imagine, at least what we see in movies and in our nightmares, right, is people just like climbing all over each other. And that's not at all how it happens. Like in a way, it's more chilling, but in another way, it's less scary.

But here's basically what happens typically in most crowd crushes, in stadiums, in clubs, at the Hajj. So... The density gets to a point where it's very dangerous. And the density of the crowd means that one person way ahead of you can lose their footing and the crowd behind doesn't know. So they keep pushing forward unless there's really good communication, that kind of thing.

So you can work around this. But. The crowd is just moving forward and they don't know that someone has fallen. And then other people try to help that person, which then creates more of a barrier. Right. And they become obstacles for everybody else. And most people who die in crowd crushes, they die from suffocation. They don't die from being trampled on. They die because they can't breathe.

It's horrible. But basically, it's the compounding pressure of all of these people moving forward, not knowing, tragically, that someone up front has fallen.

Yeah, exactly. The biggest problem here, right, is the density, but also the lack of communication. Like the people in back, we have no way of knowing someone's fallen. All we see is a small space opens up in front of us where that person used to be. So what do we do? Just like we always do, right? We fill it up, which puts more pressure on the fallen.

You're suffocating people, but you just, you don't know, which is terrible because it turned out that pressure builds up exponentially. So a crowd quickly picks up the same amount of force as a 18-wheeler, as a Mack truck. And humans can lose consciousness after being compressed for just 30 seconds and they become brain dead after six minutes.

They can die without ever falling down just from that sheer pressure. It's the walls are literally closing in. So it's not the kind of panic that we imagine, right? It's not like that at all. That's important to understand because then that indicates how you would prevent crowd crushes. And they are all preventable, right?

This is the thing that is really important to understand because there have been many crowd crushes after which officials, including officials at the Hajj, have blamed the public when, in fact, it was the crowd management that was to blame.

Yeah, absolutely. And the research on heroism is like really slippery. But I did try to find as much as I could. And what I found is that there definitely is a profile. You're right that the phase of life that you're in really does seem to matter. And this is a fast generalization with very imperfect data. So, you know, don't freak out, everyone listening.

But people who become celebrated as heroes, which is different than people who are actually heroes, right? It's a smaller subset, tend to be more likely to be men and more likely to be childless. So that could be for lots of reasons. That could be because they don't feel the fear of leaving their children alone on this earth.

So to your point about the hurricanes, like in 1990, the National Hurricane Center could predict the path of a hurricane only about 24 hours in advance. That's all you had to get out of the way, which really isn't enough, just based on the way people make decisions about evacuation and also based on the design of dense urban places.

Or it could be there are evolutionary theorists who would say it's because they are trying to make sure their reputation is told by a hero.

Yeah. Maybe men face more pressures, especially in certain places and times to jump into the freezing water or because maybe they have more experience in swimming in open water. So it's really tricky. But I will say just anecdotally, the heroes that I've interviewed, first of all, they all hate that word. Like they all really resent that word. And what's underneath that? I think it's because

Their experience of it was very different from the way we tell the story. So all the time people will ask heroes, why did you jump in the water? And their thinking is, how could I not? What does it say about you that you're even asking me this question? And typically they explain their behavior by saying, I couldn't have lived with myself if I hadn't done this.

They're weighting different fears for whatever combination of reasons. They dread having to live with themselves knowing they didn't try more than they dread the threat in that situation. So I think for them, they're more afraid of what would happen if they didn't take action. to their own identity and their sense of themselves.

And Roger Olian, who's the one that I profiled who jumped into a freezing river after a plane crash, he said, basically, you're doing it for yourself because you wouldn't want to not do it and face the consequences internally. So in his case, he did not have children. He knew that he was a big, strong guy who was a good swimmer.

He knew he wasn't going to reach those people, by the way, because of the ice and the water. But he had military training, which is also very common. Just anecdotally, a lot of the people who engaged in heroics tend to have military training. Who knows if that's causal or not, but he had a kind of biased reaction.

He didn't want to spend the rest of his life wondering if he should have done something. And so he did everything he could do. And even though he didn't get to those passengers, they saw him coming. And that was very important to their survival. He survived. Most of them survived because it turned out a helicopter made it through very unexpectedly in this ice storm.

Yeah, so it's a compound that it appears special forces soldiers tend to produce significantly more of than other people, and it helps you stay focused on a task under stress. So even 24 hours after a mock interrogation, say, or some kind of very intense simulation, special forces soldiers had returned to normal levels of neuropeptide Y while other soldiers remained depleted.

So it seems like they have this kind of stockpile maybe for some reason that we don't understand.

Whereas in civilian life, people with anxiety disorders or depression, they tend to have lower levels of neuropeptide Y. So this is some research that has been done specifically for the Army on why some people, especially Green Berets under certain situations, tend to stay relatively calm and perform well.

So now the National Hurricane Center can predict the path of a hurricane with pretty good accuracy 72 hours beforehand, which is actually a pretty big difference when it comes to getting out of harm's way.

And basically, yeah, they found that they seem to remain more mentally clear and we don't fully understand why, but it could have something to do with literally their chemical makeup.

Yeah, I'm going to not recommend any of that. I don't think we know how to create this. And what we do know, the best way if you want to inject yourself with some calmness for extreme events is to train for them. That's the way. That's the thing we know that helps.

Gotta try.

Oh, I have an even better one for the 20-something guys.

This is the thing that also special operators train on, which is practice rhythmic breathing. I know it doesn't sound as sexy as injecting yourself with some very sketchy chemical.

But literally, you know, I interviewed a police officer who he was a rookie cop. Every time you call in on his radio responding to something serious, his voice would go up like two octaves and his voice would shake, which is a totally normal fear response signal when you're under too much fear. But he was embarrassing, of course.

So he started doing this very clever thing, which we could all do in our own different ways, which is he would play a recording of his siren. And every day for 10 minutes, he would practice doing rhythmic box breathing, which is like in for four counts. hold for four counts, exhale for four, hold for four, and repeat.

And so he got to a point where every time he heard a siren, he would just automatically do this breathing thing, right? And within a few weeks... All of a sudden, his voice was normal when he called in on the radio, which is actually a very big deal. It's not just that it was less embarrassing. It means that he's not likely to degrade. He's going to keep his eye-hand coordination.

He's going to make better decisions. He's not going to lose his peripheral vision. All the things we talked about earlier are likely to be under control. So that's what I would recommend for everyone listening is practice box breathing regularly. or any kind of rhythm with breathing, especially in stressful situations, so that you can do it automatically.

It's very difficult and it feels like this can't be right. You know, I used to try to practice it every time I was stressed when I was in traffic. I should do that again. But you don't want to practice it under duress, right? You want to practice it in a low stakes stress situation. So if there's certain things like your kid crying or your wife driving, whatever, that's a good time to practice.

It's a good idea.

Yeah. Or maybe you're the person who leads everyone in a sing-along when you're in a tornado shelter. Like there's all different opportunities, but if you do want to learn more about how to be helpful in a very tangible ways, I would encourage people to check out their local CERT organizations. Every county typically has one. These are ways to get free training in emergency response.

And so that's one thing you could do. And also just understand what to expect so that you won't be shocked if and when it happens.

So it was a certain course that you took.

It's like too much.

In our modern world, we've become very interdependent. We don't know how to do things that we, for most of our history, knew how to do. So Yeah, I think it's helpful just to have some sense of your own agency. So for people who might be interested, the CERT stands for Community Emergency Response Team. So that's what you want to Google. And again, they're locally run.

Some are much better than others, but it's worth checking out if you're interested.

Thanks for having me, Jordan. It was fun. Appreciate it.

Exactly. Which you're not going to do. You're asleep for the first six hours. Then you hear about it. You're like, I'm sure it's nothing. So we typically go through a period of denial and disbelief in every disaster. And you have to kind of build that in and expect that'll happen. But on average, before people evacuate in particular, they check with at least five sources.

So that deliberation piece you mentioned is really important, but also really time consuming. So time is really important. And we have more of it than we did. Not as much as we'd like, but there is more than we used to have.

Yeah. One of the things I noticed in doing the new edition of The Unthinkable is that one of the changes that's happened is that we're just living in a very low trust climate for a lot of reasons. And it's not just that people don't trust institutions or the news media. It's also that those institutions don't trust the people.

And it's also which causes a lot of deaths in disasters because information gets withheld and so forth. But also that people don't trust each other, their neighbors as much. And it turns out that in most disasters, the people who will matter most, who will save you and who you will save are regular people like you and me. It's your neighbors, your coworkers, strangers on a bus.

It's not first responders or the people you might think of because it just takes too long for them to get there. But regular people really matter. So that trust piece is extremely important. We can design all this great new forecasting technology and vaccines and what have you. And that's awesome. But if people don't trust them, then it doesn't really matter.

Yeah, let's do that. So one of the things I noticed when I was covering a lot of disasters for Time magazine is that the things that the survivors told me were very different than what I'd expected. They were very different than what they had expected. They had specific lessons they wanted the rest of us to know, and many of them were actually positive.

In other words, they had not freaked out in the way that they expected. They had freaked out in much more subtle ways. And I'll get back to that. They found that other people, including strangers, were all of a sudden much better behaved than normal. So rather than the kind of mob mentality, every man for himself that we imagine from movies, in fact,

It turns out that in most disasters, the people who will matter most, who will save you and who you will save, are regular people like you and me. It's your neighbors, your co-workers, strangers on a bus. We can design all this great new forecasting technology and vaccines and what have you, and that's awesome. But if people don't trust them, then it doesn't really matter.

Humans tend to become polite and courteous and cooperative almost to a fault in most disasters for, again, for evolutionary reasons. But there's a good reason to do that. So those things are surprising. And if you don't know to expect that, you're going to prepare differently.

If you don't know that your biggest challenge will not be panic, but actually a total lethargy, like a shutting down, that is the biggest, most common mistake that people make in disasters, as opposed to punching each other out and just widespread mayhem.

having a default bias for hostility is going to not serve you well in most disasters because actually your best ally are the people around you.

It's awesome that you're thinking about that because that is right.

Yeah. And I mean, look, I can understand why some people are afraid of one another. And some people have experiences that justify that fear. And a lot of people are consuming news, which my business is very much complicit in, that makes them afraid of their neighbors. And I don't think it's a simple equation. And it does vary depending on the place and the person, all of these things.

But one thing I can tell you for sure is that people tend to behave better in disasters than we expect. And we really need each other very suddenly. So yeah, pro-social preparation is probably going to serve you better.

I think the food and water thing is fine, but I don't think it's very compelling. I think it's like too small of a frame. For me, the best kind of preparation to do, and I actually, it sounds like you do do this, so I wouldn't undermine yourself. You have relationships with your neighbors. It sounds like who needs help, who can do what, you know, and that is actually huge.

So one of the things that I've tried to change in my own life, having done a lot of this reporting, is I've to really get to know my neighbors better and take those opportunities, right? So it's not just about stockpiling water.

It's about building relationship, understanding who has a generator, who is elderly, but also like just knowing each other so we can trust each other, we can call on each other. The beauty of that is you reap rewards from that whether or not there's a disaster.

And so I really encourage people to think about what they can do that's going to be good for them and their community right away, no matter what happens. Because there's a lot you can't predict. Being in a relationship, being able to laugh at a shared joke and being able to share recipes and being able to call someone if your kid is sick. Those things really matter.