Benjamin Todd
speaker
4,140 appearances
3 recordings
1 series
first heard Sep 2023
last heard 28 May
Benjamin Todd’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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recordings per month · last 12 monthsRecordings per month over the last 12 months — 2 in all, peaking in May 2026 with 2.
Appearances
And that's, again, something that anyone can help with.
I do think something like 10% unemployment could be quite likely, partly just because the pace of change will be so fast.
The length of tasks that AIs can do is increasing maybe as much as eight times per year.
But like even many other benchmarks, you have these kind of rates of progress that are in the 2, 4x, 8x per year kind of range.
And that's actually very counterintuitive because it means...
Suppose like in one year, AI can do 0.5% of a job.
So it's like a few minutes per week of help.
So it's hardly noticeable.
But then if that increases by eightfold in one year, then like in year two, that's now 4%, which is kind of like a noticeable help, but again, not like that big a deal.
But then like in year two, it's 32%, which...
is now becoming like, it's like a big thing that people are using all the time.
And then suddenly, like in year four, it's like it can do pretty much everything.
And so it could be, it's like this very, it could be this very rapidly unfolding where it's like, it seems quite slow.
It's like hardly noticeable for a while.
And then just kind of like suddenly, and this is what happens with a lot of AI benchmarks where, you know, you go from like 1% to 2% to 4%.
And then, but then like, once you get further on, it's like,
kind of like suddenly saturates, the speed of progress could cause unemployment.
And I just think also it means it's difficult to know from existing data because there's this pattern where like AI might be having a small effect and then suddenly much bigger.
So the trends we see now in the employment figures
things might suddenly go the other way.
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