Benjamin Todd

speaker

4,140 appearances 3 recordings 1 series first heard Sep 2023 last heard 28 May

Benjamin Todd’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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recordings per month · last 12 months

Recordings per month over the last 12 months — 2 in all, peaking in May 2026 with 2.

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Yeah, if AI is automating one job, that means like as a whole, the world is producing more stuff with less inputs.

So that means we're getting richer.

And...

That means that while, yeah, maybe the wages for the jobs that are being automated are going down, that extra wealth is then spent somewhere else.

In particular, it's spent on the things that AI can't do yet because those will become the remaining bottlenecks.

And so wages for those other types of tasks should be going up.

So that means people could switch from...

Like the things, all the other jobs should be seeing rising wages.

And so as a software engineer, could you switch into some other area?

And then we still won't see mass unemployment unless people for some reason aren't able to make that switch.

Yeah, so there is this really interesting idea that maybe what happened with ATMs happens for like humanity as a whole, where...

Initially, AI is making us more and more productive.

And there's this kind of like massive employment boom and economic boom.

Epoch AI has a macroeconomic of AI automation.

And in their model, they imagine that an AI is created that can do 10% of tasks in 2026, which...

Don't think we have yet, but maybe not that far off.

And then they imagine, okay, suppose then that turned into an AI that could do 100% of economically important tasks.

I think in 2030, maybe 2032 is when that's hit.

So this is just like a hypothetical scenario.

But they find that what happens is human wages increase tenfold and actually keep increasing even after...

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