Benjamin Todd

The same algorithm that can play Space Invaders has also learned to play about 50 other arcade games, caption images, chat with humans, and manipulate a real robot arm.

Machine learning has been around for decades, but improved algorithms, especially around deep learning techniques, faster processors, bigger data sets, and huge investments by companies like Google and Microsoft have led to amazing advances far faster than expected.

Due to this, many experts think human-level artificial intelligence could easily happen in our lifetimes.

Here are the results of a 2022 survey of hundreds of top AI researchers from AI Impacts.

There's a table here.

For a 10% chance of human-level machine intelligence, the median response was 2032, the mean response was 2042, with a standard deviation of 40 years.

For a 50% chance of human-level machine intelligence, the median response was 2052, the mean response was 2127, and the standard deviation was 530 years.

And for a 90% chance of human-level machine intelligence, the median response was 2086, the mean response was 5406, and the standard deviation was 40,000 years.

You can see half the experts give a 50% or higher chance of human-level AI happening by 2050, just 30 years in the future.

Admittedly, they are very uncertain, but high uncertainty also means it could arrive sooner rather than later.

Why is this important?

Gorillas are faster than us, stronger than us, and have a more powerful bite.

but there are only 100,000 gorillas in the wild compared to 7 billion humans, and their fate is up to us.

A major reason for this is a difference in intelligence.

Right now, computers are only smarter than us in limited ways, for example playing StarCraft, and this is already changing the economy.

But what happens when computers become smarter than us in almost all ways, like how we're smarter than gorillas?

This transition could be hugely positive or hugely negative.

On the one hand, just as the Industrial Revolution automated manual labor, the AI revolution could automate intellectual labor, unleashing unprecedented prosperity and access to material resources.

But we also couldn't guarantee staying in control of a system that's smarter than us.

It might be more strategic than us, more persuasive, and better at solving problems.