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Brad Gerstner

👤 Person
1234 total appearances

Appearances Over Time

Podcast Appearances

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump Brokers Gaza Peace Deal, National Guard in Chicago, OpenAI/AMD, AI Roundtripping, Gold Rally

So we can compare a gigawatt of power because it's, remember, it's power in and it's tokens out.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump Brokers Gaza Peace Deal, National Guard in Chicago, OpenAI/AMD, AI Roundtripping, Gold Rally

And we can compare that over time and normalize across all these different chips.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump Brokers Gaza Peace Deal, National Guard in Chicago, OpenAI/AMD, AI Roundtripping, Gold Rally

And it's not just these two companies.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump Brokers Gaza Peace Deal, National Guard in Chicago, OpenAI/AMD, AI Roundtripping, Gold Rally

You got Tranium by Amazon, TPU by Google, Cerebris, Grok, et cetera.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump Brokers Gaza Peace Deal, National Guard in Chicago, OpenAI/AMD, AI Roundtripping, Gold Rally

There are a lot of folks in this game.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump Brokers Gaza Peace Deal, National Guard in Chicago, OpenAI/AMD, AI Roundtripping, Gold Rally

And so, again, I think what you saw this week in this flurry of announcements, right, is that you have the market leader that's basically captured 90 to 100% of the incremental demand for the biggest thing that the data center and the chip market has ever seen.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump Brokers Gaza Peace Deal, National Guard in Chicago, OpenAI/AMD, AI Roundtripping, Gold Rally

And every other player is looking at what they have to do to have a shot to capture part of this wave.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump Brokers Gaza Peace Deal, National Guard in Chicago, OpenAI/AMD, AI Roundtripping, Gold Rally

They're high risk, high reward bets.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump Brokers Gaza Peace Deal, National Guard in Chicago, OpenAI/AMD, AI Roundtripping, Gold Rally

The other thing I would say is,

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump Brokers Gaza Peace Deal, National Guard in Chicago, OpenAI/AMD, AI Roundtripping, Gold Rally

And again, shut me up and anybody can jump in if they want to.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump Brokers Gaza Peace Deal, National Guard in Chicago, OpenAI/AMD, AI Roundtripping, Gold Rally

But I want to decompose.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump Brokers Gaza Peace Deal, National Guard in Chicago, OpenAI/AMD, AI Roundtripping, Gold Rally

We're hearing these estimates of 100 gigawatts, four to five trillion of build out over the course of the next four years.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump Brokers Gaza Peace Deal, National Guard in Chicago, OpenAI/AMD, AI Roundtripping, Gold Rally

If you look at that same chart I just showed you, that's not what Wall Street estimates are, right?

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump Brokers Gaza Peace Deal, National Guard in Chicago, OpenAI/AMD, AI Roundtripping, Gold Rally

There is a lot of disbelief on Wall Street as to what's going to get built out.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump Brokers Gaza Peace Deal, National Guard in Chicago, OpenAI/AMD, AI Roundtripping, Gold Rally

So if you look at that estimate, starting in 2027, it basically flatlines 27 through 29 for NVIDIA.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump Brokers Gaza Peace Deal, National Guard in Chicago, OpenAI/AMD, AI Roundtripping, Gold Rally

Right.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump Brokers Gaza Peace Deal, National Guard in Chicago, OpenAI/AMD, AI Roundtripping, Gold Rally

Less than 10 percent CAGR in terms of the growth for NVIDIA.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump Brokers Gaza Peace Deal, National Guard in Chicago, OpenAI/AMD, AI Roundtripping, Gold Rally

They have by 2029 them doing 360 billion in revenue compared to 210 billion of revenue this year.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump Brokers Gaza Peace Deal, National Guard in Chicago, OpenAI/AMD, AI Roundtripping, Gold Rally

To put it in gigawatt perspectives, that means going from four to five gigs per year in 25 to nine gigs in 29.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump Brokers Gaza Peace Deal, National Guard in Chicago, OpenAI/AMD, AI Roundtripping, Gold Rally

That's a big step up.