Brad Gerstner
👤 PersonAppearances Over Time
Podcast Appearances
So we can compare a gigawatt of power because it's, remember, it's power in and it's tokens out.
And we can compare that over time and normalize across all these different chips.
And it's not just these two companies.
You got Tranium by Amazon, TPU by Google, Cerebris, Grok, et cetera.
There are a lot of folks in this game.
And so, again, I think what you saw this week in this flurry of announcements, right, is that you have the market leader that's basically captured 90 to 100% of the incremental demand for the biggest thing that the data center and the chip market has ever seen.
And every other player is looking at what they have to do to have a shot to capture part of this wave.
They're high risk, high reward bets.
The other thing I would say is,
And again, shut me up and anybody can jump in if they want to.
But I want to decompose.
We're hearing these estimates of 100 gigawatts, four to five trillion of build out over the course of the next four years.
If you look at that same chart I just showed you, that's not what Wall Street estimates are, right?
There is a lot of disbelief on Wall Street as to what's going to get built out.
So if you look at that estimate, starting in 2027, it basically flatlines 27 through 29 for NVIDIA.
Right.
Less than 10 percent CAGR in terms of the growth for NVIDIA.
They have by 2029 them doing 360 billion in revenue compared to 210 billion of revenue this year.
To put it in gigawatt perspectives, that means going from four to five gigs per year in 25 to nine gigs in 29.
That's a big step up.