Brad Gerstner

So what's going on in this earnings season?

You know, this next slide, basically, earnings have come in really strong, you know, so we have 70% of companies that are beating, they're beating by wide margins.

you know, in earnings.

But if you look at the forecast, you know, basically earnings have come in about 11% higher than last year.

And the stocks are up about 13 or 14%.

But the real question is, as we roll into next year,

And so, you know, Scott Besson, on the one hand, is saying, listen, in Q1, we're going to have some big tax refunds because of no tax on tips, no tax on overtime.

And he thinks that'll give it a boost.

But clearly you hear them pounding the table that we need to get rates down.

I tend to agree.

The low end consumer who pays a lot on their credit cards, on their car loan, et cetera, is clearly hurting.

We see these layoffs, these layoffs are hurting some of these people as well.

And so when you look at the multiples of the market,

How do we look at it from an altimeter perspective?

We still believe that owning all of compute like we have for three years and this AI trade has room to run, but there obviously multiples have come up a lot.

I talked about a 40% move from the bottom this year.

And so you can just take your position size and make it a little bit smaller.

So in the world of less or more, I think Chamath's exactly right.

There's a pause as we head in over the course of the next couple months, reflected by the stuff that we're doing.

But I do think the economy is set up as we head into next year.