Chamath
π€ SpeakerAppearances Over Time
Podcast Appearances
And they both deserve to be.
How profitable they are?
I don't know.
What their terminal valuation is?
I don't know.
What will people pay for an IPO?
I don't know.
But Nick, I just shared something with you.
These two companies need to get out as quickly as possible.
And the reason is every single company that comes after it, all those companies that you just named, Jason, are not nearly as important and do not need the money nearly as badly as these guys do.
And where will it come from?
The specific answer to your question when you look at this chart is the tech sector PE is going to shrink faster, in my opinion, than the non-tech PE.
And the reason is because as these companies come out, the combination of SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic, all three are baking
an AI technology that first and foremost will go after the tech sector.
It will eliminate and it will cannibalize and it will erode most of the moats that support this differential trading.
So if I were a betting man, my first bet is as those three companies come out, these software businesses are going to approach the rest of the non-tech PE.
Okay, that's the first step that has to happen.
So the rate of change of the multiple erosion will basically say to the world, hey, these tech companies are, I don't know, I'll buy the first five or six years of this story, but I'm not buying year 15 of this anymore because these three guys are going to build something.
So that's where the money comes from.
That's why I think