Chamath
π€ SpeakerAppearances Over Time
Podcast Appearances
So if you stack up all these improvements, they're actually much further ahead than the models realize.
If you take all of that as a basket, it goes back to what I said last week, which is we have a real pricing problem.
If AGI is real, the durability of most companies is slim to none.
If AGI is not real, then the fundraising capacity of these companies that are now raising hundreds of billions of dollars needs to get questioned and inspected thoroughly.
History will sort out which one is right, but both cannot be right.
So in that vein, I actually think, J. Cal, I don't think we're going to have like these quote unquote blockbuster stream of IPOs.
I think what happens is SpaceX is going to get out.
They're going to do great.
And then maybe the next one does good to great.
Then the next one will do good.
And then the appetite runs out because you just can't absorb incrementally trillions of dollars of new demand.
And if you think about it, where is it going to come from?
Is it going to come from the sidelines?
I don't know.
I think it's more of a reallocation exercise.
But if you look at the S&P 500,
Well, most people are now defensively moving away from these kinds of things towards the things that are more protected, what the industry calls halo, right?
High asset, low obsolescence kind of businesses.
Those things trade for zero today, Jason.
You could buy hundreds of millions of dollars a year of cash flow for two to five times right now in the stock market.