Coleman Strumpf

This election was probably the best case example I could give of that. So when people are polled about certain candidates, they tend not to always say who they support. So traditionally, Donald Trump underperforms in polls.

This election was probably the best case example I could give of that. So when people are polled about certain candidates, they tend not to always say who they support. So traditionally, Donald Trump underperforms in polls.

This election was probably the best case example I could give of that. So when people are polled about certain candidates, they tend not to always say who they support. So traditionally, Donald Trump underperforms in polls.

Right. So let me tell you about the person who was the most successful batter in 2024, who was a French citizen. He had a very similar view. He said, I don't think these polls are working very well, but I'm going to run my own poll. And so he asked a slightly different question, which was not, who do you support? Who do you think your neighbors support?

Right. So let me tell you about the person who was the most successful batter in 2024, who was a French citizen. He had a very similar view. He said, I don't think these polls are working very well, but I'm going to run my own poll. And so he asked a slightly different question, which was not, who do you support? Who do you think your neighbors support?

Right. So let me tell you about the person who was the most successful batter in 2024, who was a French citizen. He had a very similar view. He said, I don't think these polls are working very well, but I'm going to run my own poll. And so he asked a slightly different question, which was not, who do you support? Who do you think your neighbors support?

There's a little bit of work that suggests that people are a little bit more realistic about thinking about that question than what they themselves think. Anyway, he was so confident in what he found from this poll that he put down $80 million on Donald Trump to win. And yeah, he made $80 million today.

There's a little bit of work that suggests that people are a little bit more realistic about thinking about that question than what they themselves think. Anyway, he was so confident in what he found from this poll that he put down $80 million on Donald Trump to win. And yeah, he made $80 million today.

There's a little bit of work that suggests that people are a little bit more realistic about thinking about that question than what they themselves think. Anyway, he was so confident in what he found from this poll that he put down $80 million on Donald Trump to win. And yeah, he made $80 million today.

I'm pretty skeptical of pollsters getting into the 21st century. Forget about what I've just been saying. Being a pollster is infinitely more difficult today than it was 40 years ago. Absence of landlines. Yeah. You know, and I know who's calling and my phone doesn't equate to where I physically am. It's just very hard to do polls.

I'm pretty skeptical of pollsters getting into the 21st century. Forget about what I've just been saying. Being a pollster is infinitely more difficult today than it was 40 years ago. Absence of landlines. Yeah. You know, and I know who's calling and my phone doesn't equate to where I physically am. It's just very hard to do polls.

I'm pretty skeptical of pollsters getting into the 21st century. Forget about what I've just been saying. Being a pollster is infinitely more difficult today than it was 40 years ago. Absence of landlines. Yeah. You know, and I know who's calling and my phone doesn't equate to where I physically am. It's just very hard to do polls.

The kind of advancements that they've made are relatively marginal, in my opinion.

The kind of advancements that they've made are relatively marginal, in my opinion.

The kind of advancements that they've made are relatively marginal, in my opinion.

San Francisco definitely had their own markets, many of which were relatively big money, millions of dollars in today's dollars. They would take place in like cigar stores and things like that. We're talking 1900, a long time ago. Some people had money, but a lot of people didn't have money. But there were fewer things to bet on back then. So people were really into betting on elections.

San Francisco definitely had their own markets, many of which were relatively big money, millions of dollars in today's dollars. They would take place in like cigar stores and things like that. We're talking 1900, a long time ago. Some people had money, but a lot of people didn't have money. But there were fewer things to bet on back then. So people were really into betting on elections.

San Francisco definitely had their own markets, many of which were relatively big money, millions of dollars in today's dollars. They would take place in like cigar stores and things like that. We're talking 1900, a long time ago. Some people had money, but a lot of people didn't have money. But there were fewer things to bet on back then. So people were really into betting on elections.

And so they would do these non-monetary bets if you didn't have the cash. They called them freak bets. I don't know. Freak? Freak bets. I don't know. F-R-E-A-K? As in a certain book that I'm familiar with, yes.

And so they would do these non-monetary bets if you didn't have the cash. They called them freak bets. I don't know. Freak? Freak bets. I don't know. F-R-E-A-K? As in a certain book that I'm familiar with, yes.