Emily Flippen
👤 PersonAppearances Over Time
Podcast Appearances
I certainly have my work cut out to me to make a bull case for either of these businesses, but I love to play devil's advocate.
To your point, Jason, two sides do make a market.
They're a lot less clear-cut than Baidu or PDD.
I try to see the forest through the trees.
In the case of iQiyi, the financial risk of the debt and the lack of profits are basically non-existent for exactly the reason Toby mentioned.
They're fully backed by the cash-generating giant that is Baidu.
Baidu won't, in my opinion, really let this company fail.
And iQiyi does have some really valuable properties.
Unlike other apps, there isn't a clear competitor to iQiyi in Chinese streaming.
So I could draw comparisons between them and Netflix in the past, getting up to speed in original content and scale in a country with
Billions of people, it's hard, it's expensive, maybe they just need more time here.
I think the risk of bankruptcy, given their financial profile, is still low with such smart backing.
I compare Weibull to maybe even a business like eBay, where, yeah, you can make the argument, does this company really need to exist?
But there's probably still a lot of leverage that management can do with what is otherwise a very profitable, very cash-generating asset.
They are losing out on ad dollars to competition, like Red Note, of course, and the platform is declining in popularity.
But management team seems aware and OK with that.
They still have hundreds of millions of monthly active users.
And they monetize decently well.
They have operating margins north of 27% in the most recent quarter.
So much cash that they're actually doubling their operating income just based off the interest income they're generating off of their cash sitting there in their bank accounts.