Eyck Freymann
Appearances
WSJ What’s News
How China’s Trillion-Dollar Infrastructure Bet Undercuts U.S. Dominance
I think the thing to understand is that China never does anything for just one reason.
WSJ What’s News
How China’s Trillion-Dollar Infrastructure Bet Undercuts U.S. Dominance
So the goal of Belt and Road in 2013 was, first and foremost, consolidate the domestic system around Xi Jinping by making all of the institutions that generate propaganda and that lend out money subscribe to his version of a policy agenda. The second thing was to give him an opportunity to stand on red carpets and cut deals with foreign leaders.
WSJ What’s News
How China’s Trillion-Dollar Infrastructure Bet Undercuts U.S. Dominance
And then a third sort of more strategic agenda was to start telling China's story well and building relationships with foreign partners as a strategy for China's advancement that would link China's economic power to its political relationships.
WSJ What’s News
How China’s Trillion-Dollar Infrastructure Bet Undercuts U.S. Dominance
When you're looking outside China, I think it's important to not to confuse the success or failure of individual projects with the political goals that China has. Because what China is offering is bigger than just one investment.
WSJ What’s News
How China’s Trillion-Dollar Infrastructure Bet Undercuts U.S. Dominance
It's a model of relationship between China and another country in which deals can be cut quickly, favors can be dispensed, and in return, you're going to acknowledge China's senior status, You're going to support China on China's core interests, which might be Taiwan, South China Sea, China's definition of human rights.
WSJ What’s News
How China’s Trillion-Dollar Infrastructure Bet Undercuts U.S. Dominance
And you're going to find ways to cooperate economically that help China advance its interests in your region.
WSJ What’s News
How China’s Trillion-Dollar Infrastructure Bet Undercuts U.S. Dominance
So the Belt and Road is not a fixed thing. And as China has grown more confident over the last decade, the language that China uses to describe its global goals for the initiative has changed in a really fundamental way. At the beginning, the language was all about we're going to collaborate on economics as the basis for bringing peace and prosperity.
WSJ What’s News
How China’s Trillion-Dollar Infrastructure Bet Undercuts U.S. Dominance
And we have no aspiration to reshape global governance. This is just a bunch of one-off win-win projects that we do with partners that want to collaborate with us. Fast forward 10 years and you have Xi Jinping at the G20 talking about a vision for global governance.
WSJ What’s News
How China’s Trillion-Dollar Infrastructure Bet Undercuts U.S. Dominance
that includes security cooperation, where he's using euphemisms to essentially talk about a Chinese-led world order that displaces the United States. I think that signals the more powerful and confident that China feels, the harder it's going to push to make sure that the world system, including the structure of the world economic system, suits its interests.
WSJ What’s News
How China’s Trillion-Dollar Infrastructure Bet Undercuts U.S. Dominance
And the Belt and Road is one vehicle for China to push that agenda forward. Where does that end then? Last time I was in Beijing, I was told by a senior scholar that if there is a U.S.-China rupture, China will survive and thrive because developing countries will take China's side. I don't know how seriously that view is held, but I think there is some merit to it.
WSJ What’s News
How China’s Trillion-Dollar Infrastructure Bet Undercuts U.S. Dominance
So China has not only economic relationships established through this debt, they have deep political relationships in some cases with both parties.