Freeberg

And what's interesting is that we have finally burned through, and this is what this picture shows, all of the money that folks had in their bank accounts. And so what does that force people to do? It actually forces people to reenter the workforce so that they can start to make money. But the problem is that companies have been shrinking and have been on a defensive posture.

And what's interesting is that we have finally burned through, and this is what this picture shows, all of the money that folks had in their bank accounts. And so what does that force people to do? It actually forces people to reenter the workforce so that they can start to make money. But the problem is that companies have been shrinking and have been on a defensive posture.

And so as a result, which you started to see this past unemployment report, unemployment is now ticking up because when these people reenter the workforce, there are no jobs for them to have. People are filing incremental unemployment insurance claims. States like California, in fact, the state of California was the worst off this past month.

And so as a result, which you started to see this past unemployment report, unemployment is now ticking up because when these people reenter the workforce, there are no jobs for them to have. People are filing incremental unemployment insurance claims. States like California, in fact, the state of California was the worst off this past month.

So I think what we're starting to see is that for the large portion of the economy, we've run out of cash to spend. And as a result, I do think that we are going to see an economic slowing.

So I think what we're starting to see is that for the large portion of the economy, we've run out of cash to spend. And as a result, I do think that we are going to see an economic slowing.

And I think that that will create not just enormous empirical justification for Jerome Powell, it'll be exacerbated by what Friedberg just showed, which is the political pressure that he's going to be under to cut Will it cause him to cut more aggressively than he would have otherwise? On the margins, I actually think yes.

And I think that that will create not just enormous empirical justification for Jerome Powell, it'll be exacerbated by what Friedberg just showed, which is the political pressure that he's going to be under to cut Will it cause him to cut more aggressively than he would have otherwise? On the margins, I actually think yes.

But my perspective is that I think that we've run out of money, individual people. So I think unemployment is going back up. I think GDP is going to shrink.

But my perspective is that I think that we've run out of money, individual people. So I think unemployment is going back up. I think GDP is going to shrink.

And so I kind of tend to be in this camp that we're going to see more than one rate cut.

And so I kind of tend to be in this camp that we're going to see more than one rate cut.

I think it's the legacy and the perception that he leaves behind. I think had he not... over-promised and under-delivered at the end of last year. Remember, he was promising, as Sachs said, six or seven rate cuts, and he's delivered bupkis. And the markets were none too pleased.

I think it's the legacy and the perception that he leaves behind. I think had he not... over-promised and under-delivered at the end of last year. Remember, he was promising, as Sachs said, six or seven rate cuts, and he's delivered bupkis. And the markets were none too pleased.

And so now I think he's just swung the pendulum to the other side, which is he's going to massively under-promise and then over-deliver if he can. And so as a result, I think he's being much more measured and guarded. I don't think he wants to be wrong here. So I think he's thinking about what most folks think about when they're at the tail end of a job like this.

And so now I think he's just swung the pendulum to the other side, which is he's going to massively under-promise and then over-deliver if he can. And so as a result, I think he's being much more measured and guarded. I don't think he wants to be wrong here. So I think he's thinking about what most folks think about when they're at the tail end of a job like this.

He's not going to get reappointed. He's going to go off into the sunset. It's roughly about how history will write how he handled the transition from that to the next phase, whatever that is. So I think he's probably very interested in making sure he doesn't break the economy and also that he doesn't seem like he's constantly waffling and unpredictable.

He's not going to get reappointed. He's going to go off into the sunset. It's roughly about how history will write how he handled the transition from that to the next phase, whatever that is. So I think he's probably very interested in making sure he doesn't break the economy and also that he doesn't seem like he's constantly waffling and unpredictable.

We could have a negative recessionary print going into the election cycle. I think that's very possible. Yeah, exactly.

We could have a negative recessionary print going into the election cycle. I think that's very possible. Yeah, exactly.