Gavin Bade

Could they have come to this agreement without, you know, imposing tariffs and spooking the market and sending everyone into a tizzy? Maybe. But that confusion and that panic is a feature of the system for Trump, not a bug.

Could they have come to this agreement without, you know, imposing tariffs and spooking the market and sending everyone into a tizzy? Maybe. But that confusion and that panic is a feature of the system for Trump, not a bug.

Could they have come to this agreement without, you know, imposing tariffs and spooking the market and sending everyone into a tizzy? Maybe. But that confusion and that panic is a feature of the system for Trump, not a bug.

Well, I think there's a few different ways to look at it here. This is tariffs for punitive measures, right? These are punitive penalizing tariffs, things that are connected not to a trade irritant, but to one of Trump's other bugaboos, right? Migration, fentanyl. So that's one thing where you see these really bellicose tariff threats. But I think we should conceptually separate that from...

Well, I think there's a few different ways to look at it here. This is tariffs for punitive measures, right? These are punitive penalizing tariffs, things that are connected not to a trade irritant, but to one of Trump's other bugaboos, right? Migration, fentanyl. So that's one thing where you see these really bellicose tariff threats. But I think we should conceptually separate that from...

Well, I think there's a few different ways to look at it here. This is tariffs for punitive measures, right? These are punitive penalizing tariffs, things that are connected not to a trade irritant, but to one of Trump's other bugaboos, right? Migration, fentanyl. So that's one thing where you see these really bellicose tariff threats. But I think we should conceptually separate that from...

other tariffs that Trump has talked about. For instance, last week he said, we're going to put tariffs on semiconductors. We're going to do it on pharmaceuticals. Those are tariffs that are to remedy what are specific trade irritants for Trump.

other tariffs that Trump has talked about. For instance, last week he said, we're going to put tariffs on semiconductors. We're going to do it on pharmaceuticals. Those are tariffs that are to remedy what are specific trade irritants for Trump.

other tariffs that Trump has talked about. For instance, last week he said, we're going to put tariffs on semiconductors. We're going to do it on pharmaceuticals. Those are tariffs that are to remedy what are specific trade irritants for Trump.

And then third, there's still going to be, we've heard, you know, we believe, still going to be a broad-based tariff of some sort that is mostly aimed not at rebalancing trade, but but raising money for the U.S. Treasury, raising money so that Trump can do tax cuts and pay for them with tariffs. That is a strategy that we haven't really seen in over 100 years in the United States.

And then third, there's still going to be, we've heard, you know, we believe, still going to be a broad-based tariff of some sort that is mostly aimed not at rebalancing trade, but but raising money for the U.S. Treasury, raising money so that Trump can do tax cuts and pay for them with tariffs. That is a strategy that we haven't really seen in over 100 years in the United States.

And then third, there's still going to be, we've heard, you know, we believe, still going to be a broad-based tariff of some sort that is mostly aimed not at rebalancing trade, but but raising money for the U.S. Treasury, raising money so that Trump can do tax cuts and pay for them with tariffs. That is a strategy that we haven't really seen in over 100 years in the United States.

I think the big looming question is what happens with China. Trump's going to hit them again with more tariffs. And they hold a lot of cards here. We still have a lot of reliances on them for different critical products, whether it's processing critical minerals or many products that U.S. manufacturers need for their factory processes.

I think the big looming question is what happens with China. Trump's going to hit them again with more tariffs. And they hold a lot of cards here. We still have a lot of reliances on them for different critical products, whether it's processing critical minerals or many products that U.S. manufacturers need for their factory processes.

I think the big looming question is what happens with China. Trump's going to hit them again with more tariffs. And they hold a lot of cards here. We still have a lot of reliances on them for different critical products, whether it's processing critical minerals or many products that U.S. manufacturers need for their factory processes.

And if you have to pay more tariffs on those, that's going to hurt American manufacturing. So I think how China responds on those American choke points is going to be very interesting. But I will say this, you know, there's only so many times that Trump can threaten tariffs, threaten to put them in place, and then, you know, get his negotiation done and back down, right?

And if you have to pay more tariffs on those, that's going to hurt American manufacturing. So I think how China responds on those American choke points is going to be very interesting. But I will say this, you know, there's only so many times that Trump can threaten tariffs, threaten to put them in place, and then, you know, get his negotiation done and back down, right?

And if you have to pay more tariffs on those, that's going to hurt American manufacturing. So I think how China responds on those American choke points is going to be very interesting. But I will say this, you know, there's only so many times that Trump can threaten tariffs, threaten to put them in place, and then, you know, get his negotiation done and back down, right?

At some point, he runs the risk of being the boy who cried tariff.

At some point, he runs the risk of being the boy who cried tariff.