Gunjan Banerjee
speaker
20 appearances
1 recordings
1 series
first heard May 2025
last heard May 2025
Gunjan Banerjee’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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Appearances
Welcome to WSJ's Take on the Week. I'm Gunjan Banerjee.
We are facing one of the most uncertain economic moments in recent history, and the Federal Reserve is at a crossroads. Will it cut interest rates this year? And how are central bankers thinking about the intense volatility in financial markets? We have the perfect person to chat with us about this today. We have Rob Kaplan, who is vice chairman at Goldman Sachs.
He previously served as president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. Rob, thank you for joining us.
So we have a really big Fed meeting coming up. It feels like more than ever, the Fed and investors are just navigating a really, really uncertain time. How are you thinking about this moment in light of tariffs, the economy and everything else going on right now?
And on top of that, you might have an economy that's already slowing, as we saw in the data recently.
You've said you're worried about stagflation. Tell us why.
So it's interesting because I think a lot of investors think that if we tip into a recession this year, the Federal Reserve would cut. One question I have is... And they might be right. Right. They might be right. In 2022, though, Powell did say, like, I thought that Powell made it clear that he was willing to accept a recession.
And his priority was getting inflation back down to 2%.
Are investors wrong to think that the Fed will cut them in light of all of this?
Is there a level of unemployment at which the Fed would say, hey, we need to cut now? What is the tipping point?
We haven't seen it. We got close.
It's scary, yeah.
So the market is expecting around three rate cuts this year. How many do you think we'll get?
Well, right now they're very high. They're at the...
It's interesting because in the market, it feels like at times people are buying stocks again. People are buying treasuries again. The dollar is going up. Gold is falling.
Well, I think over the past week, we've seen moments where that kind of buy America trade comes back. So it feels like people are still grappling with how different are things really going to be.
One thing that almost every investor I'm chatting with is watching is this buy America trade right now. It feels like we started the year with everyone banking on another year of American exceptionalism. U.S. stocks have outperformed almost every single year since the global financial crisis. What do you think of that trade right now?
Some people say that, OK, even if we were to rewind the clock and say, just kidding, no more tariffs, that confidence in America as a trading partner has been dinged. Do you think that's the case?
We're going to take a quick break and then we have one final question for Rob.
And I'm Gunjan Banerjee. Until next time.
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