Jared Malsin
Appearances
The Journal.
What the Ceasefire in Lebanon Means for the Middle East
Yes, and that is significant. The war in Gaza continues. Israel's tensions with Iran continue. Israel's continued bombing of Syria, where they're trying to cut off Hezbollah's supply lines and kind of roll back Iranian influence across the region. All of that is expected to continue.
The Journal.
What the Ceasefire in Lebanon Means for the Middle East
There's a lot of inbuilt fragility with this agreement because of all this other fighting and hostility in the region.
The Journal.
What the Ceasefire in Lebanon Means for the Middle East
The Lebanese Hezbollah movement, which is both a militia and a political party and is strongly allied with Iran, decided to intervene in the war on Hamas's side, launching rocket and drone attacks on northern Israel.
The Journal.
What the Ceasefire in Lebanon Means for the Middle East
For the longest time, Hezbollah said, no, this is an ironclad demand. And according to our reporting, they quietly backed down from that in the last few weeks. And that has happened since this series of devastating airstrikes by the Israelis and this eruption of full-scale war in Lebanon.
The Journal.
What the Ceasefire in Lebanon Means for the Middle East
And then on the Israeli side, this deal is in part designed to allow the Israeli army to regroup and rearm themselves. And that's important because, you know, Israel relies on these part-time reservist soldiers. And a lot of them, they're not showing up in increasing numbers. And they're still fighting on other fronts, in the West Bank and Gaza.
The Journal.
What the Ceasefire in Lebanon Means for the Middle East
There was palpable relief in Lebanon today. People have been waiting for this for a long time.
The Journal.
What the Ceasefire in Lebanon Means for the Middle East
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu gave a speech in primetime local time where he made the case for the deal saying that Israel wanted to focus on its confrontation with Iran, that it wanted to isolate Hamas, and that he wanted to allow the Israeli army to regroup and rearm itself.
The Journal.
What the Ceasefire in Lebanon Means for the Middle East
Netanyahu said he's not going to elaborate on that. Look, so this is all happening in the context of this. The war in Gaza has spawned this larger regional war. That has resulted in Israel and Iran exchanging direct fire for the first time in history. So there's been a lot of concern about the worst case scenarios of full scale war between these two archenemies in the Middle East.
The Journal.
What the Ceasefire in Lebanon Means for the Middle East
The significance is that in the last deal, so in Resolution 1701 that ended the last war almost 20 years ago, they called on Hezbollah to not have its military forces in the area south of the Latani River. There's also a history here where Israel has kind of used the Latani as they don't want threats to their security in that area.
The Journal.
What the Ceasefire in Lebanon Means for the Middle East
So I was out in the southern section of Beirut, which is called Dahia in Arabic, which is where most of the Israeli airstrikes in the city have taken place. And now you have people coming back to a neighborhood that has been shaken by the bombing, fires that were still burning, firefighters trying to put out those blazes.
The Journal.
What the Ceasefire in Lebanon Means for the Middle East
In the 1970s, they launched what's called Operation Latani to kind of roll back Palestinian militants from that area. And this has been their consistent demand is they don't want militants in that area.
The Journal.
What the Ceasefire in Lebanon Means for the Middle East
They have signaled their support for it. The Lebanese government says that they have agreed to it and... We've spoken with Hezbollah officials who have spoken positively of it. There is some ambiguity here where they have not come out publicly with an endorsement.
The Journal.
What the Ceasefire in Lebanon Means for the Middle East
There could be a number of reasons for that, one of which is that it does amount to a climb down from their previous policy of maintaining the linkage with Gaza.
The Journal.
What the Ceasefire in Lebanon Means for the Middle East
It's a huge concession because it was their entire rationale for getting involved in the war in the first place. They were saying, we are doing this to help Palestinians. It is an act of solidarity with them and an act of solidarity with Hamas, who is an allied group and also part of this constellation of pro-Iranian militias in the region.
The Journal.
What the Ceasefire in Lebanon Means for the Middle East
And it's a big deal in the sense that they came under a lot of pressure from Lebanese society to stop this. There was a lot of suffering here, a lot of people who had to leave their homes, whose homes were destroyed, a lot of people killed and injured. Obviously devastating for the economy.
The Journal.
What the Ceasefire in Lebanon Means for the Middle East
What they get is calm. They have suffered a huge setback in this war with basically a generation of their leaders being killed in these airstrikes. It has brought this pressure from regular Lebanese people who, when you talk to a lot of them, will say, you know, why is this happening? You know, what does this have to do with Lebanon? Why are we getting involved in another country's problems?
The Journal.
What the Ceasefire in Lebanon Means for the Middle East
And there's a sense that they needed to regroup. And there's both the military pressure and pressure from Lebanese people.
The Journal.
What the Ceasefire in Lebanon Means for the Middle East
That is a really important question. So for the Israelis, one thing that they've insisted on throughout the negotiations is this so-called freedom of action where they want to be able to strike Hezbollah in response to perceived threats from them in order to maintain their security.
The Journal.
What the Ceasefire in Lebanon Means for the Middle East
A lot of the negotiations that unfolded over the last couple of months were around this point, and they apparently got some kind of guarantees from the US that are separate from the actual bilateral deal itself. They would have that ability. The text of the agreement itself, as you said, just says that both sides have a right to self-defense.
The Journal.
What the Ceasefire in Lebanon Means for the Middle East
And it talks about, you know, these are two sovereign countries that both have that right.
The Journal.
What the Ceasefire in Lebanon Means for the Middle East
It will be enforced by, there's supposed to be an international monitoring committee that includes the U.S. and France, and they join these other parties that are already on the ground, like U.N. Peacekeepers, which are a part of UNIFIL, which is the U.N. peacekeeping organization that already has thousands of peacekeepers here.
The Journal.
What the Ceasefire in Lebanon Means for the Middle East
You had the supporters of Hezbollah driving through the street on motorcycles and cars waving the yellow Hezbollah flags. People coming back to homes only to find out that they'd been bombed on the very last night of the bombing. So it was a very surreal scene.
The Journal.
What the Ceasefire in Lebanon Means for the Middle East
Well, it's a huge exhale here. You have to imagine this has been two months of constant airstrikes, of people having to leave their homes and staying with relatives, sleeping in their cars, camping in the street, staying in schools. this huge displacement crisis. And now those people are going back.
The Journal.
What the Ceasefire in Lebanon Means for the Middle East
I mean, there's lots of people piling in their cars and driving around with mattresses strapped to the top because a lot of people who left the South, for example, they took out the mattresses out of their houses. They said, OK, we're leaving. We're going to go sleep somewhere else. And now you can see them driving back the other way.
The Journal.
What the Ceasefire in Lebanon Means for the Middle East
I talked to a guy today who, he lives in the southern suburbs and the building had been fine for the entire war until last night when it was hit. And he showed up this morning and he kind of, you could see this look on his face of just like his heart sinking, realizing it's like, you have all this anxiety of like, is my house gonna be safe? Is my house gonna be safe?
The Journal.
What the Ceasefire in Lebanon Means for the Middle East
And then on the last night of the bombing, it gets hit. So a lot of mixed emotions, obviously.
The Journal.
What the Ceasefire in Lebanon Means for the Middle East
It's been a mixed reaction. There's been some opposition in Israel, for example, from the mayors of some of these towns in northern Israel where their citizens have been evacuated. Some of those people wanted Israel to be more aggressive.
The Journal.
What the Ceasefire in Lebanon Means for the Middle East
And there's questions about, you know, can they really feel safe, given the fact that Hezbollah hasn't gone away and that their missile and drone and rocket capabilities are still there. So you have that reaction from the right. On the other side of the equation, there's...
The Journal.
What the Ceasefire in Lebanon Means for the Middle East
A section of Israeli society that has been also advocating for a ceasefire in Gaza where you would have the return of the hostages held by Hamas and also a ceasefire that would bring relief to the people of Gaza.
The Journal.
What the Ceasefire in Lebanon Means for the Middle East
A ceasefire in Gaza is unlikely because all of the factors that prevented a ceasefire in the first place are still in place. Netanyahu, in his speech last night, intimated that they would continue fighting. The intransigence on both sides of the conflict in terms of getting a deal in place is still there. And I'd say that hopes for a deal are diminishing.
The Journal.
What the Ceasefire in Lebanon Means for the Middle East
That said, the efforts to get one are ongoing. The Biden administration, in kind of its twilight, they're still trying, as are the various Arab countries involved. But it's going to be difficult.
The Journal.
What the Ceasefire in Lebanon Means for the Middle East
This is still a moment of profound insecurity. And the end of the war in Lebanon, assuming the ceasefire holds, this is a huge relief for millions of people, both here and in northern Israel. There's no question about that. The broader picture is still very worrying in the sense that you still have war unfolding on multiple fronts. And
The Journal.
What the Ceasefire in Lebanon Means for the Middle East
You have all these actors repositioning themselves with respect to the Trump administration coming in. That's the story that we're gonna have to cover going forward is, you know, what happens with this much broader conflict between these two sides playing out across the region.
The Journal.
What the Ceasefire in Lebanon Means for the Middle East
It de-escalates one of the fronts in this multipolar conflict that we've seen in the Middle East.