Jerome Powell

Clearly some of it, a good part of it, is coming from tariffs.

Clearly some of it, a good part of it, is coming from tariffs.

Clearly some of it, a good part of it, is coming from tariffs.

We will be watching very carefully for signs of weakness in the real data. Of course we will. But given where we are, we think our policy is in a good place to react to what comes, and we think that the right thing to do is to wait here for greater clarity about what the economy is doing.

We will be watching very carefully for signs of weakness in the real data. Of course we will. But given where we are, we think our policy is in a good place to react to what comes, and we think that the right thing to do is to wait here for greater clarity about what the economy is doing.

We will be watching very carefully for signs of weakness in the real data. Of course we will. But given where we are, we think our policy is in a good place to react to what comes, and we think that the right thing to do is to wait here for greater clarity about what the economy is doing.

I do think with the arrival of the tariff inflation, further progress may be delayed. The SEP doesn't really show further downward progress on inflation this year, and that's really due to the tariffs coming in.

I do think with the arrival of the tariff inflation, further progress may be delayed. The SEP doesn't really show further downward progress on inflation this year, and that's really due to the tariffs coming in.

I do think with the arrival of the tariff inflation, further progress may be delayed. The SEP doesn't really show further downward progress on inflation this year, and that's really due to the tariffs coming in.

In our summary of economic projections, the median participant projects GDP to rise 1.7 percent this year, somewhat lower than projected in December. and to rise a bit below 2% over the next two years.

In our summary of economic projections, the median participant projects GDP to rise 1.7 percent this year, somewhat lower than projected in December. and to rise a bit below 2% over the next two years.

In our summary of economic projections, the median participant projects GDP to rise 1.7 percent this year, somewhat lower than projected in December. and to rise a bit below 2% over the next two years.

Growth looks like it's maybe moderating a bit, consumer spending moderating a bit, but still at a solid pace. Unemployment's 4.1%. Job creation most recently has been at a healthy level. Inflation has started to move up now, we think partly in response to tariffs, and there may be a delay in further progress over the course of this year. So that's the hard data. Overall, it's a solid picture.

Growth looks like it's maybe moderating a bit, consumer spending moderating a bit, but still at a solid pace. Unemployment's 4.1%. Job creation most recently has been at a healthy level. Inflation has started to move up now, we think partly in response to tariffs, and there may be a delay in further progress over the course of this year. So that's the hard data. Overall, it's a solid picture.

Looking ahead, the new administration is in the process of implementing significant policy changes in four distinct areas. Trade, immigration, fiscal policy, and regulation. It is the net effect of these policy changes that will matter for the economy and for the path of monetary policy.

Looking ahead, the new administration is in the process of implementing significant policy changes in four distinct areas. Trade, immigration, fiscal policy, and regulation. It is the net effect of these policy changes that will matter for the economy and for the path of monetary policy.

While there have been recent developments in some of these areas, especially trade policy, uncertainty around the changes and their likely effects remains high. As we parse the incoming information, we are focused on separating the signal from the noise as the outlook evolves. We do not need to be in a hurry, and we are well positioned to wait for greater clarity.

While there have been recent developments in some of these areas, especially trade policy, uncertainty around the changes and their likely effects remains high. As we parse the incoming information, we are focused on separating the signal from the noise as the outlook evolves. We do not need to be in a hurry, and we are well positioned to wait for greater clarity.

Law changes, no. I'm not aware of any law changes.

Law changes, no. I'm not aware of any law changes.