John List

an idea because in the past it was move fast and break things, throw spaghetti against the wall, whatever sticks, cook it, fake it till you make it. We've all heard these statements, but it's always art. And what I'm adding here is we need science to figure out which ideas are truly scalable.

an idea because in the past it was move fast and break things, throw spaghetti against the wall, whatever sticks, cook it, fake it till you make it. We've all heard these statements, but it's always art. And what I'm adding here is we need science to figure out which ideas are truly scalable.

an idea because in the past it was move fast and break things, throw spaghetti against the wall, whatever sticks, cook it, fake it till you make it. We've all heard these statements, but it's always art. And what I'm adding here is we need science to figure out which ideas are truly scalable.

So here's kind of what happened. There was an innovation of the smart thermostat. Put it in your house. It will moderate your energy use over 24 hour day. And the engineers estimated that we will have huge savings because of the smart thermostat. So here's what we did. We chose 400,000 households in California and we sent 200,000 of them the smart thermostat.

So here's kind of what happened. There was an innovation of the smart thermostat. Put it in your house. It will moderate your energy use over 24 hour day. And the engineers estimated that we will have huge savings because of the smart thermostat. So here's what we did. We chose 400,000 households in California and we sent 200,000 of them the smart thermostat.

So here's kind of what happened. There was an innovation of the smart thermostat. Put it in your house. It will moderate your energy use over 24 hour day. And the engineers estimated that we will have huge savings because of the smart thermostat. So here's what we did. We chose 400,000 households in California and we sent 200,000 of them the smart thermostat.

In the other 200,000, we didn't send anything and we just observed all 400,000 households. Guess what happens? There is zero energy savings. Now you can say, well, wait a second. Why did the engineers so dramatically overestimate what would happen? Well, here's why. They assumed that the end user was Commander Spock. This is a guy who never makes a mistake, and he is 100% rational.

In the other 200,000, we didn't send anything and we just observed all 400,000 households. Guess what happens? There is zero energy savings. Now you can say, well, wait a second. Why did the engineers so dramatically overestimate what would happen? Well, here's why. They assumed that the end user was Commander Spock. This is a guy who never makes a mistake, and he is 100% rational.

In the other 200,000, we didn't send anything and we just observed all 400,000 households. Guess what happens? There is zero energy savings. Now you can say, well, wait a second. Why did the engineers so dramatically overestimate what would happen? Well, here's why. They assumed that the end user was Commander Spock. This is a guy who never makes a mistake, and he is 100% rational.

That's not who the end users are of this product. The end users are more like Homer Simpson. Homer Simpson is exactly what I did. I got this new gadget. I did not read the 28 page manual, how to use it. And then I went in and fiddled with the new gadget and I undid all of the presets. I undid all of the defaults. That's what the 200,000 households did in California.

That's not who the end users are of this product. The end users are more like Homer Simpson. Homer Simpson is exactly what I did. I got this new gadget. I did not read the 28 page manual, how to use it. And then I went in and fiddled with the new gadget and I undid all of the presets. I undid all of the defaults. That's what the 200,000 households did in California.

That's not who the end users are of this product. The end users are more like Homer Simpson. Homer Simpson is exactly what I did. I got this new gadget. I did not read the 28 page manual, how to use it. And then I went in and fiddled with the new gadget and I undid all of the presets. I undid all of the defaults. That's what the 200,000 households did in California.

They undid them exactly enough on average to undo all of the good stuff with the technology. That's knowing the situation. Know who's going to use your product and give them technology that they can actually use that will help save the Earth.

They undid them exactly enough on average to undo all of the good stuff with the technology. That's knowing the situation. Know who's going to use your product and give them technology that they can actually use that will help save the Earth.

They undid them exactly enough on average to undo all of the good stuff with the technology. That's knowing the situation. Know who's going to use your product and give them technology that they can actually use that will help save the Earth.

That's why that idea did not scale from the Petri dish to the large, because we did not understand the end users are very different than Commander Spock from Star Trek.

That's why that idea did not scale from the Petri dish to the large, because we did not understand the end users are very different than Commander Spock from Star Trek.

That's why that idea did not scale from the Petri dish to the large, because we did not understand the end users are very different than Commander Spock from Star Trek.

And let me be clear, they're working for some people. So when I say on average, it doesn't work, that doesn't mean that it's not working for some people. And you're right. What happens now is you come to smart thermostat level two and then level three, and that product will evolve to be much more user-friendly. When we put, I used to be the chief economist at Lyft,

And let me be clear, they're working for some people. So when I say on average, it doesn't work, that doesn't mean that it's not working for some people. And you're right. What happens now is you come to smart thermostat level two and then level three, and that product will evolve to be much more user-friendly. When we put, I used to be the chief economist at Lyft,