Larry Bartels

Thanks for having me.

Thanks for having me.

No, I don't think so. I think one of my important lessons here is that I think you have to separate the electoral process from the outcome. And Trump is an example in which the outcome of the election is certainly aberrant and hugely consequential. But the electoral process, I think, operated in much the same way that it usually does.

No, I don't think so. I think one of my important lessons here is that I think you have to separate the electoral process from the outcome. And Trump is an example in which the outcome of the election is certainly aberrant and hugely consequential. But the electoral process, I think, operated in much the same way that it usually does.

And in particular, in much the same way that it has over the past quarter century or so. We've been basically in a long tie between Democrats and Republicans.

And in particular, in much the same way that it has over the past quarter century or so. We've been basically in a long tie between Democrats and Republicans.

If you think back over the last seven elections, the only one really in which either party got any real separation was the election in 2008 that occurred basically as Wall Street was melting down and the US was sliding into the Great Recession. So in those circumstances, Barack Obama won a fairly comfortable majority.

If you think back over the last seven elections, the only one really in which either party got any real separation was the election in 2008 that occurred basically as Wall Street was melting down and the US was sliding into the Great Recession. So in those circumstances, Barack Obama won a fairly comfortable majority.

Basically, every other election that we've had since 2000 has been more or less a tied outcome. The two parties are entrenched and very closely matched. And under those circumstances, I think the best way to think about the result is that it's essentially a coin flip.

Basically, every other election that we've had since 2000 has been more or less a tied outcome. The two parties are entrenched and very closely matched. And under those circumstances, I think the best way to think about the result is that it's essentially a coin flip.

Not that it's literally random, but that lots of small circumstances can make the difference between one side or the other winning narrowly.

Not that it's literally random, but that lots of small circumstances can make the difference between one side or the other winning narrowly.

The impact of partisanship was very strong, as it has been consistently over the last quarter century. Maybe the most surprising thing is that turnout was down by about 3 million in 2024 compared to 2020. So even though people who were watching the election closely had the impression that the stakes were hugely consequential.

The impact of partisanship was very strong, as it has been consistently over the last quarter century. Maybe the most surprising thing is that turnout was down by about 3 million in 2024 compared to 2020. So even though people who were watching the election closely had the impression that the stakes were hugely consequential.

There were a fair number of people who had been voting previously and didn't bother to vote for one reason or another in 2024. I should say that for a long time, political scientists bemoaned the fact that turnout in elections was so low. One consequence of this period that we've been in of

There were a fair number of people who had been voting previously and didn't bother to vote for one reason or another in 2024. I should say that for a long time, political scientists bemoaned the fact that turnout in elections was so low. One consequence of this period that we've been in of

closely contested, very partisan elections is that they've mobilized a lot of people to participate in the turnout rate had been going up significantly over the past several elections. But twenty twenty four was at least a pause in that trend.

closely contested, very partisan elections is that they've mobilized a lot of people to participate in the turnout rate had been going up significantly over the past several elections. But twenty twenty four was at least a pause in that trend.

Well, the overall results are obviously quite similar. Aside from the 2008 election, every election we've had in this century has been a very close outcome in terms of the popular vote, which specific states swing one way or another has varied some. And so the electoral college outcome has varied. But the overall mood of the country has not shifted substantially in any of these elections.

Well, the overall results are obviously quite similar. Aside from the 2008 election, every election we've had in this century has been a very close outcome in terms of the popular vote, which specific states swing one way or another has varied some. And so the electoral college outcome has varied. But the overall mood of the country has not shifted substantially in any of these elections.