Larry Bartels

Not that there are large numbers of party loyalists who desert the party under those circumstances, but the people who are weaker partisans are often swayed by their sense of the state of the country to abandon their party temporarily.

Not that there are large numbers of party loyalists who desert the party under those circumstances, but the people who are weaker partisans are often swayed by their sense of the state of the country to abandon their party temporarily.

Some political scientists have thought about these patterns of economic voting as being a kind of virtue of democracy or a success for democracy because they might hold political leaders accountable for whether things are going well or badly and provide at least some incentives for political leaders to run the country in a way that produces prosperity rather than poverty. And I think

Some political scientists have thought about these patterns of economic voting as being a kind of virtue of democracy or a success for democracy because they might hold political leaders accountable for whether things are going well or badly and provide at least some incentives for political leaders to run the country in a way that produces prosperity rather than poverty. And I think

There is some of that going on, but the problem is that people's assessments are not very cogent much of the time. It seems as though what happens in the months immediately leading up to the election are more important than the long-term record of the incumbents in economic management and

There is some of that going on, but the problem is that people's assessments are not very cogent much of the time. It seems as though what happens in the months immediately leading up to the election are more important than the long-term record of the incumbents in economic management and

It seems as though in circumstances where the press coverage of the economy is out of whack with real economic conditions for one reason or another, people are more likely to be swayed by the press coverage than by the state of the real economy because their sense of the real economy is so limited.

It seems as though in circumstances where the press coverage of the economy is out of whack with real economic conditions for one reason or another, people are more likely to be swayed by the press coverage than by the state of the real economy because their sense of the real economy is so limited.

mediated by what the press tells them about what's going on so there is some accountability there but i think it's really again a very blunt form of accountability what are your conclusions as you look at america's elections

mediated by what the press tells them about what's going on so there is some accountability there but i think it's really again a very blunt form of accountability what are your conclusions as you look at america's elections

Well, in a circumstance like the one we're in now, where the parties are pretty evenly matched, which is not uncommon historically, the result of the unelection is basically a coin flip. It'll be determined by some combination of relatively minor contextual factors. Sometimes it's the personality of particular candidates.

Well, in a circumstance like the one we're in now, where the parties are pretty evenly matched, which is not uncommon historically, the result of the unelection is basically a coin flip. It'll be determined by some combination of relatively minor contextual factors. Sometimes it's the personality of particular candidates.

More often, it's these economic factors that determine people's mood about the state of the country and the competency of the incumbent party. But those things from the standpoint of

More often, it's these economic factors that determine people's mood about the state of the country and the competency of the incumbent party. But those things from the standpoint of

fundamental democratic values are really not particularly important, but they can, especially in a polarized period like the one we're in now, be hugely consequential because the outcome of the election has huge consequences for the kinds of policies that government is going to pursue.

fundamental democratic values are really not particularly important, but they can, especially in a polarized period like the one we're in now, be hugely consequential because the outcome of the election has huge consequences for the kinds of policies that government is going to pursue.

One thing I would say, as I've already said, is to emphasize the importance of this relative stability of support for the two parties over a long period of time now, which heightens the stakes and makes the outcome of the election subject to so many idiosyncratic factors.

One thing I would say, as I've already said, is to emphasize the importance of this relative stability of support for the two parties over a long period of time now, which heightens the stakes and makes the outcome of the election subject to so many idiosyncratic factors.

The second, which is a kind of corollary of that, is that it's a mistake to infer anything about the mood of the country from the outcome of the election. I mean, literally speaking, Trump lost the popular vote in 2020 and won the popular vote in 2024. But those changes were really very small in the overall scheme of things. And it's almost always a mistake to try to infer anything

The second, which is a kind of corollary of that, is that it's a mistake to infer anything about the mood of the country from the outcome of the election. I mean, literally speaking, Trump lost the popular vote in 2020 and won the popular vote in 2024. But those changes were really very small in the overall scheme of things. And it's almost always a mistake to try to infer anything