Lauren Weber

They're basically saying, look, we don't know what's going to happen. We don't know the impact of tariffs yet. And until there's a little more clarity, they're being very, very cautious on hiring. The hard data still looks okay.

They're basically saying, look, we don't know what's going to happen. We don't know the impact of tariffs yet. And until there's a little more clarity, they're being very, very cautious on hiring. The hard data still looks okay.

But what we hear anecdotally and what you see in some of these comments from companies and executives, and also what surveys are saying about consumer confidence or business confidence, they show a much more worrisome picture.

But what we hear anecdotally and what you see in some of these comments from companies and executives, and also what surveys are saying about consumer confidence or business confidence, they show a much more worrisome picture.

So history tells us no. And for that, we can look at Trump's first term, where he also imposed tariffs on China and some other countries. Manufacturing jobs did not grow. And we actually lost jobs that time around, mainly because other countries put on retaliatory tariffs, largely on agricultural products. So we lost a lot of agricultural jobs.

So history tells us no. And for that, we can look at Trump's first term, where he also imposed tariffs on China and some other countries. Manufacturing jobs did not grow. And we actually lost jobs that time around, mainly because other countries put on retaliatory tariffs, largely on agricultural products. So we lost a lot of agricultural jobs.

Those were partially offset by subsidies that the government paid to farmers to try to keep people employed. But no, manufacturing jobs were not created.

Those were partially offset by subsidies that the government paid to farmers to try to keep people employed. But no, manufacturing jobs were not created.

Yeah, we've already seen some announcements that pharmaceutical makers are bringing some production back to the U.S. Products that are a little bit less complicated than, let's say, a car or an iPhone, we will see some of that return.

Yeah, we've already seen some announcements that pharmaceutical makers are bringing some production back to the U.S. Products that are a little bit less complicated than, let's say, a car or an iPhone, we will see some of that return.

Now, it's possible some of those plans might have been in process long before tariffs were announced, mainly because the pandemic was such a wake-up call to companies. They needed to have supply chains where goods and raw materials were would be more available closer to the United States.

Now, it's possible some of those plans might have been in process long before tariffs were announced, mainly because the pandemic was such a wake-up call to companies. They needed to have supply chains where goods and raw materials were would be more available closer to the United States.

Well, this is the rub, and this is one of the confusing things about this plan. We already have labor shortages for manufacturing jobs, and the jobs are more complex than they used to be. So you actually have to have more advanced skills. Often they involve... some amount of computer knowledge or technical skills. So the answer is no, we don't have enough workers already.

Well, this is the rub, and this is one of the confusing things about this plan. We already have labor shortages for manufacturing jobs, and the jobs are more complex than they used to be. So you actually have to have more advanced skills. Often they involve... some amount of computer knowledge or technical skills. So the answer is no, we don't have enough workers already.

Complicating that even further is the fact that manufacturers in the U.S. have long relied on an immigrant workforce. That's also becoming more challenging as border security has ramped up. Fewer immigrants are coming into this country. Employers have fewer workers to hire from.

Complicating that even further is the fact that manufacturers in the U.S. have long relied on an immigrant workforce. That's also becoming more challenging as border security has ramped up. Fewer immigrants are coming into this country. Employers have fewer workers to hire from.

In many ways, the solution is something that's been going on for decades for all kinds of reasons, and that is automation. So the kinds of factories that are being built or refurbished in the U.S. these days have a lot more automation than the ones that left this country in the 1970s, 1980s, 90s, when outsourcing was a big trend.

In many ways, the solution is something that's been going on for decades for all kinds of reasons, and that is automation. So the kinds of factories that are being built or refurbished in the U.S. these days have a lot more automation than the ones that left this country in the 1970s, 1980s, 90s, when outsourcing was a big trend.

What that means is the factories need fewer workers than they would have in the past.

What that means is the factories need fewer workers than they would have in the past.

Thanks for having me.

Thanks for having me.