Mark Zuckerberg
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Podcast Appearances
Thank you, Georgia. I appreciate it. Looking forward to this.
Thank you, Georgia. I appreciate it. Looking forward to this.
Well, look, I think if you rewind back to Trump tariffs 1.0, fourth quarter of 2018, top to bottom, the stocks fell about 19.9%. And right before they hit 20%, they started to reverse course. And then you fast forward to 2019, the S&P was up around 30%. So what I would say is that when you look at what's going on with tariffs,
Well, look, I think if you rewind back to Trump tariffs 1.0, fourth quarter of 2018, top to bottom, the stocks fell about 19.9%. And right before they hit 20%, they started to reverse course. And then you fast forward to 2019, the S&P was up around 30%. So what I would say is that when you look at what's going on with tariffs,
Obviously, it's creating a lot of uncertainty, which is causing a lot of fantastic stocks to pull back or sell off. That's presenting good buying opportunities because when you look at policy uncertainty, which is at its second highest level on record, second to only the lockdowns of 2020.
Obviously, it's creating a lot of uncertainty, which is causing a lot of fantastic stocks to pull back or sell off. That's presenting good buying opportunities because when you look at policy uncertainty, which is at its second highest level on record, second to only the lockdowns of 2020.
Whenever you have a policy uncertainty this high, forward-looking returns in the stock market over the next three, six, and 12 months are substantially above average. So look, I'm viewing this as a buying opportunity. I'm trying to pick off my favorite high-conviction names and add to them where appropriate.
Whenever you have a policy uncertainty this high, forward-looking returns in the stock market over the next three, six, and 12 months are substantially above average. So look, I'm viewing this as a buying opportunity. I'm trying to pick off my favorite high-conviction names and add to them where appropriate.
So if we look at kind of worst case scenario for tariffs, as a country, we have about $25 trillion of total personal income annually. We import about $3.3 trillion of goods. If there was a universal 25% tariff on every single good we import, that would equate to roughly a 3% income tax on the American taxpayer. Not fun, not great, but not the end of the world.
So if we look at kind of worst case scenario for tariffs, as a country, we have about $25 trillion of total personal income annually. We import about $3.3 trillion of goods. If there was a universal 25% tariff on every single good we import, that would equate to roughly a 3% income tax on the American taxpayer. Not fun, not great, but not the end of the world.
But that's only if you're looking at tariffs in a vacuum. If then you start to pair it with the other pro-growth initiatives, lower taxes, less regulation, it actually seems pretty decent. So, I mean, you look at the extension of the Trump tax cuts, just using the highest tax bracket, that went from 39.6 down to 37. I don't have a PhD in mathematics, but that's pretty close to 3%.
But that's only if you're looking at tariffs in a vacuum. If then you start to pair it with the other pro-growth initiatives, lower taxes, less regulation, it actually seems pretty decent. So, I mean, you look at the extension of the Trump tax cuts, just using the highest tax bracket, that went from 39.6 down to 37. I don't have a PhD in mathematics, but that's pretty close to 3%.
And I also look at the fact that, you know, one of the latest things President Trump has talked about is potentially no tax up to $150,000 of income. He's talked about no tax on Social Security. He's talked about no tax on tips, no tax on overtime. The effective tax rate for someone making $150,000 a year is 15% right now, their federal income tax rate.
And I also look at the fact that, you know, one of the latest things President Trump has talked about is potentially no tax up to $150,000 of income. He's talked about no tax on Social Security. He's talked about no tax on tips, no tax on overtime. The effective tax rate for someone making $150,000 a year is 15% right now, their federal income tax rate.
If what President Trump wants to do happens, that goes down to zero, but then there's that extra 3% from tariffs. So, look, at the end of the day, I think this is actually going to be good for the economy, good for the American taxpayers, good for consumers, and ultimately beneficial for the stock market.
If what President Trump wants to do happens, that goes down to zero, but then there's that extra 3% from tariffs. So, look, at the end of the day, I think this is actually going to be good for the economy, good for the American taxpayers, good for consumers, and ultimately beneficial for the stock market.
That sounds like quite the challenge. But I think if he can make the case and he can get a lot of the Democrats to buy into helping average Joe and Jane on Main Street, I think there could be a chance. I mean, you rewind back to pre-Civil War and tariffs generated roughly 90% of the government's revenues back at that point in time. We didn't have a permanent income tax until I think it was 1913.
That sounds like quite the challenge. But I think if he can make the case and he can get a lot of the Democrats to buy into helping average Joe and Jane on Main Street, I think there could be a chance. I mean, you rewind back to pre-Civil War and tariffs generated roughly 90% of the government's revenues back at that point in time. We didn't have a permanent income tax until I think it was 1913.
So there's certainly a case to be made. I don't think it's the most likely outcome, but I think it would be great for the economy because at that point, what we're doing is via tariffs, we are taxing on consumption rather than income. And when you do that, You incentivize saving. And when you save, that grows the economy much, much faster.
So there's certainly a case to be made. I don't think it's the most likely outcome, but I think it would be great for the economy because at that point, what we're doing is via tariffs, we are taxing on consumption rather than income. And when you do that, You incentivize saving. And when you save, that grows the economy much, much faster.