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So consumers need to feel like those Trump tax cuts are going to stay in place, that it's helping them, that tariffs have not raised the price of all the goods that they want to buy to astronomical levels. And when they see that, and I do believe it will be made clear by Q3 or so of this year, yes, I do think the economy can be on solid ground.
So consumers need to feel like those Trump tax cuts are going to stay in place, that it's helping them, that tariffs have not raised the price of all the goods that they want to buy to astronomical levels. And when they see that, and I do believe it will be made clear by Q3 or so of this year, yes, I do think the economy can be on solid ground.
Thanks, George. I appreciate it.
Thanks, George. I appreciate it.
Thank you, Georgia. I appreciate it. Looking forward to this.
Thank you, Georgia. I appreciate it. Looking forward to this.
Well, look, I think if you rewind back to Trump tariffs 1.0, fourth quarter of 2018, top to bottom, stocks fell about 19.9%. And right before they hit 20%, they started to reverse course. And then you fast forward to 2019, the S&P was up around 30%. So what I would say is that when you look at what's going on with tariffs,
Well, look, I think if you rewind back to Trump tariffs 1.0, fourth quarter of 2018, top to bottom, stocks fell about 19.9%. And right before they hit 20%, they started to reverse course. And then you fast forward to 2019, the S&P was up around 30%. So what I would say is that when you look at what's going on with tariffs,
obviously it's creating a lot of uncertainty which is causing a lot of fantastic stocks to pull back or sell off that's presenting good buying opportunities because when you look at policy uncertainty which is at its second highest level on record second to only the lockdowns of 2020
obviously it's creating a lot of uncertainty which is causing a lot of fantastic stocks to pull back or sell off that's presenting good buying opportunities because when you look at policy uncertainty which is at its second highest level on record second to only the lockdowns of 2020
Whenever you have a policy uncertainty this high, forward-looking returns in the stock market over the next three, six, and 12 months are substantially above average. So look, I'm viewing this as a buying opportunity. I'm trying to pick off my favorite high-conviction names and add to them where appropriate.
Whenever you have a policy uncertainty this high, forward-looking returns in the stock market over the next three, six, and 12 months are substantially above average. So look, I'm viewing this as a buying opportunity. I'm trying to pick off my favorite high-conviction names and add to them where appropriate.
So if we look at kind of worst case scenario for tariffs, as a country, we have about $25 trillion of total personal income annually. We import about $3.3 trillion of goods. If there was a universal 25% tariff on every single good we import, that would equate to roughly a 3% income tax on the American taxpayer. Not fun, but not the end of the world.
So if we look at kind of worst case scenario for tariffs, as a country, we have about $25 trillion of total personal income annually. We import about $3.3 trillion of goods. If there was a universal 25% tariff on every single good we import, that would equate to roughly a 3% income tax on the American taxpayer. Not fun, but not the end of the world.
But that's only if you're looking at tariffs in a vacuum. If then you start to pair it with the other pro-growth initiatives, lower taxes, less regulation, it actually seems pretty decent. And I also look at the fact that one of the latest things President Trump has talked about is โ potentially no tax up to $150,000 of income. He's talked about no tax on Social Security.
But that's only if you're looking at tariffs in a vacuum. If then you start to pair it with the other pro-growth initiatives, lower taxes, less regulation, it actually seems pretty decent. And I also look at the fact that one of the latest things President Trump has talked about is โ potentially no tax up to $150,000 of income. He's talked about no tax on Social Security.
He's talked about no tax on tips, no tax on overtime. The effective tax rate for someone making 150 grand a year is 15% right now, their federal income tax rate. If what President Trump wants to do happens, that goes down to zero, but then there's that extra 3% from tariffs. So look, at the end of the day, I think this is actually going to be good for the economy.
He's talked about no tax on tips, no tax on overtime. The effective tax rate for someone making 150 grand a year is 15% right now, their federal income tax rate. If what President Trump wants to do happens, that goes down to zero, but then there's that extra 3% from tariffs. So look, at the end of the day, I think this is actually going to be good for the economy.
good for the American taxpayers, good for consumers, and ultimately beneficial for the stock market.
good for the American taxpayers, good for consumers, and ultimately beneficial for the stock market.