Mary Beth Sheridan
Appearances
Apple News Today
Protests, arson, trade-ins: inside the Tesla backlash
She tries very hard, I think, not to be confrontational, not to jump on any insulting statement or whatever, to stay very cool.
Apple News Today
Protests, arson, trade-ins: inside the Tesla backlash
between the time Trump says he'll impose the tariffs or even does impose them and the time where he and Shane Baum will have a conversation, usually a few days will pass. And in that time, the markets typically have fallen or the U.S. automakers or other U.S. businesses are complaining to Trump and raising concerns and so on. So
Apple News Today
Protests, arson, trade-ins: inside the Tesla backlash
Essentially, Trump comes under pressure from American companies and the markets and so on. And so by the time he gets on the phone with Sheinbaum, he seems a bit more ready to make a deal.
Apple News Today
Protests, arson, trade-ins: inside the Tesla backlash
What I think that people in the Scheinbaum circle feel is that we're bound to have more uncertainty because Mexico is kind of at the center of all these issues, drugs, migration, trade. It's a crucial partner of the U.S., so doubtless there's going to be more turmoil.
Today, Explained
Trump trolls the neighbours
I'm Mary Beth Sheridan, bureau chief for The Washington Post in Mexico.
Today, Explained
Trump trolls the neighbours
Definitely a fascinating moment. People are very worried, I would say, because, of course, Trump is coming in very focused on Mexico with threats to impose tariffs. He's even talked about using the U.S. military to go after fentanyl producers.
Today, Explained
Trump trolls the neighbours
There's just a lot of uncertainty in Mexico, and everybody's very focused on what Trump is going to do.
Today, Explained
Trump trolls the neighbours
So Trump posted on Truth Social that he would put a 25% tariff on Mexico and Canada if they didn't stop the flow of migrants and fentanyl over the border. So that's pretty much alarmed both countries, I would say. But in Mexico particularly, Mexico is very dependent on the U.S. market. 80% of Mexico's exports go to the United States. So any measure like that
Today, Explained
Trump trolls the neighbours
would definitely tip Mexico into a recession. Trump has also talked about possibly using the U.S. military to go after fentanyl producers in Mexico. And Mexicans are very nationalistic. They remember U.S. invasions, and they are very worried about that.
Today, Explained
Trump trolls the neighbours
You know, it's really unclear what would happen. And I think Trump has intentionally left it a bit unclear. I mean, he's talked about sending the military to the border. People around him have talked about using special forces, possibly bombing fentanyl labs. It's a little unclear both what he would do and whether he would do it with Mexico's permission.
Today, Explained
Trump trolls the neighbours
By the way, I doubt very much Mexico would give permission for something like that. But that point is left kind of undefined at the moment. So that lack of clarity is something that makes people very nervous.
Today, Explained
Trump trolls the neighbours
So they've been really eager to sit down with Trump's people, which has not happened yet. Claudia Sheinbaum has spoken. She's the president of Mexico. She's spoken twice to Trump by phone. And both sides have described those conversations in very positive terms. And Sheinbaum is trying to kind of quiet the fears both of Mexicans themselves. in Mexico and migrants in the U.S.
Today, Explained
Trump trolls the neighbours
who were there, you know, unauthorized and could face deportation. She's trying to kind of keep the markets from going crazy and keep people from worrying too much.
Today, Explained
Trump trolls the neighbours
So far, the plans that Mexico has made are very low key. And a lot of the focus has been on Mexicans in the United States who could be some of the primary targets for mass deportation. So Mexico is beefing up the legal staffs at its consulates and things like that.
Today, Explained
Trump trolls the neighbours
Her predecessor, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, who left office at the end of September, had managed to create a pretty good relationship with Trump, to everybody's surprise.
Today, Explained
Trump trolls the neighbours
Lopez Obrador is a leftist nationalist, and Lopez Obrador gave in to Trump's demands on curbing migration. And in exchange, Trump kind of left him alone on a lot of other fronts. So the question is, Claudia Sheinbaum is the new president. She is Definitely a leftist. She's the protege of Lopez Obrador, but she's a different personality. She's a scientist, much less charismatic, obviously female.
Today, Explained
Trump trolls the neighbours
And there's been a lot of questions about whether she will be able to establish the bond that Lopez Obrador had with Trump.
Today, Explained
Trump trolls the neighbours
You know, López Obrador, I think, and Trump in part had this respect because each saw the other as the head of a movement. Claudia Sheinbaum won with a commanding majority in the elections last June, but she kind of rode on the coattails of López Obrador. So she may not have quite the same stature. So far, they've both said their conversations were very positive. So we'll see what happens.
Today, Explained
Trump trolls the neighbours
Do we have any sense of who she wanted to win the presidential election in the United States? Oh, she was so careful about not expressing any preference because I think she understands Mexico needs to have a good relationship with the United States. In particular, the economies are so intertwined. So many Mexican jobs depend on the exports to the United States.
Today, Explained
Trump trolls the neighbours
So she didn't want to do anything that would get her off on the wrong foot with the new president. you If you look carefully at what's been going on, Mexico has become just a crucial ally for the U.S. in stopping migration. So under President Biden, in particular in the past year, the Biden administration leaned on Mexico. Migrant arrivals at the border, the detentions by the U.S.
Today, Explained
Trump trolls the neighbours
Border Patrol had reached historic high in December. And the Biden people came down and really had a tough talk with the Mexicans. And Mexico cracked down in a huge way. They have done about a million detentions since then, and the number of migrants being detained at the U.S. border has dropped by 75%. So Mexico has a crucial role to play in terms of being able to stop migrants,
Today, Explained
Trump trolls the neighbours
The other thing I would mention is that the U.S., both consumers and U.S. business depend tremendously on things made in Mexico. Everything from, you know, fruits and vegetables to cars to Oreo cookies. I mean, the two countries are very, the economies are interwoven. Even our Oreo cookies? I didn't even know that. You bet. Cheez-Its. It's all kinds of snack foods.
Today, Explained
Trump trolls the neighbours
Yeah, they're made in both countries now. And stuff goes back and forth. Think about Oreo cookies are made using U.S. wheat. Mexican beer is made using barley from Idaho and Montana. You know, Trump has talked about these 25 percent tariffs that he could put on Mexico and Canada because of migration and drugs.
Today, Explained
Trump trolls the neighbours
But those would wind up having a real boomerang effect for American consumers and for the American companies that rely on Mexican parts for, you know, auto factories in Detroit or airplane factories in the U.S. and so on.
Today, Explained
Trump trolls the neighbours
So I do think that consumers could feel this very quickly in the US. For example, the Mexican government has calculated that pickup trucks sold in the US could be $3,000 more expensive with these tariffs because a lot of the pickups and or the parts are made in Mexico. You look at stuff like agriculture.
Today, Explained
Trump trolls the neighbours
You know, in the winter, the berries that are in American supermarkets come from Mexico, largely. Mexico has a longer growing season. And in a lot of cases, they're actually grown either by American companies sometimes or in sort of joint venture type arrangements, right? Yeah.
Today, Explained
Trump trolls the neighbours
Think about during the pandemic when Mexico closed some of its factories, the Pentagon got all worried because the parts for the airplanes that the defense contractors build for the U.S. Army and Navy, they weren't coming. They couldn't build those planes. So that's the kind of commercial side. I think on the drug side, you know, Mexico is a very proud, very nationalistic country.
Today, Explained
Trump trolls the neighbours
And the public would not tolerate any kind of U.S. unilateral military action. I think that would be that would really destroy the relationship. And it would be pretty chaotic for both countries, particularly in their economies, I would say.
Today, Explained
Trump trolls the neighbours
Oh, the Mexicans have been pretty horrified that, you know, the headlines have been Canada's throwing us under the bus. And what happened is, well, the Canadians, on the one hand, are worried about the possibility that Mexico could be sort of a backdoor for Chinese trade. cars and auto parts and so on that would come in.
Today, Explained
Trump trolls the neighbours
And the Canadians are saying the Mexicans aren't being as tough on China as we are. Now, the Mexicans say, hey, China is still a pretty small exporter to Mexico. And there's not a lot of evidence, the Mexicans say, that there is some kind of backdoor thing going on.
Today, Explained
Trump trolls the neighbours
Canada is heading into its own elections pretty soon, so the theme of trade has emerged, particularly on the provincial level, where some officials who, at least in the Mexican vision, are trying to make hay out of this issue. But the Canadian government has gone so far as to say, well, let's just leave Mexico out of the North American Free Trade Agreement, you know?
Today, Explained
Trump trolls the neighbours
Yeah, I think it is very much seen as an effort by Canada to strengthen its hand with Trump. But it's hard to imagine that it will work.