Michael Cembalest

in the 80s when they thought the dollar was overvalued, and they tried to just nudge it down a little bit, and then they lost control of it, and then they had to have another accord later to stabilize the dollar. These things don't behave linearly. You can't just encourage a little bit of capital to leave the United States. That's hard to do.

And one of the charts that we monitor is this thing called a sell America thesis. And it's technical, but it's How many times over, let's say, any three-month period did U.S. interest rates go up, the dollar goes down 5%, equities are down, let's say, 10%, and U.S. equities underperform the rest of the world by 10%? That happened last month for the first time since 1982.

And one of the charts that we monitor is this thing called a sell America thesis. And it's technical, but it's How many times over, let's say, any three-month period did U.S. interest rates go up, the dollar goes down 5%, equities are down, let's say, 10%, and U.S. equities underperform the rest of the world by 10%? That happened last month for the first time since 1982.

And one of the charts that we monitor is this thing called a sell America thesis. And it's technical, but it's How many times over, let's say, any three-month period did U.S. interest rates go up, the dollar goes down 5%, equities are down, let's say, 10%, and U.S. equities underperform the rest of the world by 10%? That happened last month for the first time since 1982.

So to me, that was a bit of a warning signal. That was the same week that they started to trot out Besant as opposed to some of the other protagonists here to try to calm markets and stabilize things. But they have to be very careful with this massive amount of capital that's flowed into the United States. Yeah.

So to me, that was a bit of a warning signal. That was the same week that they started to trot out Besant as opposed to some of the other protagonists here to try to calm markets and stabilize things. But they have to be very careful with this massive amount of capital that's flowed into the United States. Yeah.

So to me, that was a bit of a warning signal. That was the same week that they started to trot out Besant as opposed to some of the other protagonists here to try to calm markets and stabilize things. But they have to be very careful with this massive amount of capital that's flowed into the United States. Yeah.

I mean, the average institutional account is substantially underweight Europe, Japan, and now China after several years of Chinese economic inequity underperformance. So the starting point is really important to think about.

I mean, the average institutional account is substantially underweight Europe, Japan, and now China after several years of Chinese economic inequity underperformance. So the starting point is really important to think about.

I mean, the average institutional account is substantially underweight Europe, Japan, and now China after several years of Chinese economic inequity underperformance. So the starting point is really important to think about.

Thank you, Michael. Well, you know, you had the perfect storm in favor of massive U.S. overweights. I've been, you know, I'm the one that directs our asset allocation. And... I started writing about overweights to the US against the rest of the world right after the financial crisis. And it was about 2010. So we've been writing this for a really long time.

Thank you, Michael. Well, you know, you had the perfect storm in favor of massive U.S. overweights. I've been, you know, I'm the one that directs our asset allocation. And... I started writing about overweights to the US against the rest of the world right after the financial crisis. And it was about 2010. So we've been writing this for a really long time.

Thank you, Michael. Well, you know, you had the perfect storm in favor of massive U.S. overweights. I've been, you know, I'm the one that directs our asset allocation. And... I started writing about overweights to the US against the rest of the world right after the financial crisis. And it was about 2010. So we've been writing this for a really long time.

And one of the triggers, by the way, that was interesting was for all the grief that the politicians get about the financial crisis, The stress testing that Geithner did was pretty real. And that was a signal to them that they were serious about cleaning up some of the excesses in the banking system that took place. So that was the catalyst for us to kind of get started on this U.S.

And one of the triggers, by the way, that was interesting was for all the grief that the politicians get about the financial crisis, The stress testing that Geithner did was pretty real. And that was a signal to them that they were serious about cleaning up some of the excesses in the banking system that took place. So that was the catalyst for us to kind of get started on this U.S.

And one of the triggers, by the way, that was interesting was for all the grief that the politicians get about the financial crisis, The stress testing that Geithner did was pretty real. And that was a signal to them that they were serious about cleaning up some of the excesses in the banking system that took place. So that was the catalyst for us to kind of get started on this U.S.

exceptionalism theme. And then we started looking at other things, which is sector by sector by sector. The U.S., and this is still true today, has higher ROE and higher ROA than their counterparts in Japan and in Europe and in China. But some of those things are starting to erode a little bit. But the U.S. outperformance wasn't just a multiple story.

exceptionalism theme. And then we started looking at other things, which is sector by sector by sector. The U.S., and this is still true today, has higher ROE and higher ROA than their counterparts in Japan and in Europe and in China. But some of those things are starting to erode a little bit. But the U.S. outperformance wasn't just a multiple story.

exceptionalism theme. And then we started looking at other things, which is sector by sector by sector. The U.S., and this is still true today, has higher ROE and higher ROA than their counterparts in Japan and in Europe and in China. But some of those things are starting to erode a little bit. But the U.S. outperformance wasn't just a multiple story.

It was actually profitability, leverage, asset turnover, and stuff like that, too.