Nicole Vogt
Appearances
WSJ What’s News
Why Trump’s Tariffs Will Push Up U.S. Steel Prices
And to be honest, short term, the US will most likely be impacted because you cannot change that quickly your production setup than to produce everything locally. And of course, there is a secondary effect with we getting rid of the exemptions or the country exemptions and the company exemptions. We have now a level playing field for all the importers.
WSJ What’s News
Why Trump’s Tariffs Will Push Up U.S. Steel Prices
So you have not an advantage anymore if you had quotas in the past. So suddenly everybody needs to compete again on landed cost US. And this is why everybody is watching this.
WSJ What’s News
Why Trump’s Tariffs Will Push Up U.S. Steel Prices
Well, the thing is not a lot changed, actually. So if we look at U.S. steel demand and U.S. imports since Trump's first term, the U.S. built up roughly 20 percent of the capacity. However, imports only declined by 5 percent. So it seems that the U.S. is not able to substitute yet imports. for the imports.
WSJ What’s News
Why Trump’s Tariffs Will Push Up U.S. Steel Prices
So my hypothesis would be in the future standard quality material like cold rolled or galvanized material could be produced domestically. However, the big question will be what happens to specialty materials such as tin plate, tool steel or some stainless applications. Here we had significant company exemptions, and now it's unclear if US players will build this up, if we will see local capacity.
WSJ What’s News
Why Trump’s Tariffs Will Push Up U.S. Steel Prices
Of course, this depends on the business case. You need investments, you need time, and most important, new capabilities in your workforce to produce those products.
WSJ What’s News
Why Trump’s Tariffs Will Push Up U.S. Steel Prices
Well, to be honest, I think all downstream steel-intensive good manufacturers, small and medium enterprises like companies who produce pumps and screws. Because the secondary effect is that steel prices go up and we see this already. Just from the announcement to end of last week, steel prices in the US went up more than 25%, whereas in the rest of the world, either stayed stable or in the EU,
WSJ What’s News
Why Trump’s Tariffs Will Push Up U.S. Steel Prices
rose by 5%. So this means if you are a steel buyer, it doesn't matter whether you consume imports or domestic supply, your prices go up. And this means you are affected by the increased prices.
WSJ What’s News
Why Trump’s Tariffs Will Push Up U.S. Steel Prices
Yeah, basically the whole world is watching that, yes? I mean, to get some facts and figures here. I mean, the US, I mean, let's stick with steel, has a demand of 90 million tons roughly and imported 25 million tons. And now with the Trump legislation, everything will be under tariffs. And so... You know, what is the impact on that?