Paul Hannon
speaker
69 appearances
3 recordings
1 series
first heard Jun 2026
last heard 6d ago
Paul Hannon’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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recordings per month · last 12 monthsRecordings per month over the last 12 months — 3 in all, peaking in Sep 2026 with 2.
Appearances
WSJ What’s News · Trump Tells Midterm Voters: ‘Pretend That I’m On the Ballot’ · 10 Sep 2026
podcast
So right from the start of this conflict, it's been true that the longer energy prices stay high, the more likely it is that that workers around Europe will demand and secure higher pay rises, and that in turn would trigger another round of price rises as businesses try to maintain their profit margins.
So the longer it goes on, the more action the ECB thinks it needs to take.
to contain that jump in inflation.
It's an unusual situation to be this close to what's considered to be a live meeting, that is a meeting at which policy could change, without having a really clear idea of what the outcome is most likely to be.
It it really seems to be a bit of a toss up, which is why investors are paying so much attention, perhaps not so much to the producer price numbers, but the CPI numbers on Friday.
And and the thinking is that a hot number on Friday
makes a rate rise next week, very likely.
If it sort of settles somewhere in between, I think it's going down to the wire and and no one will really have a good sense of what's gonna happen.
I mean uncertainty has a cost.
If you surprise people too much, there can be a bit of an overreaction.
The markets think that it's not just one, that there are a few to come.
And they do what markets do, which is sort of try to get three or four steps ahead, sell things that perhaps they maybe shouldn't, and it all has a little bit more of an impact on sentiment, confidence and investment.
Then the people who decided to go for the decision in the first place would have liked.
I mean, that's one of the reasons why central bankers spend so much time trying to explain and why they're thinking on things is so that there won't be those kinds of surprises when they eventually sort of unveil the big decision.
Well, I think the immediate trigger for this particular episode is to do with inflation and the effect of high energy prices coming out of the conflict in the Middle East, and particularly Fed Chair Kevin Walsh's comments at Jackson Hole last week, which indicated that the central bank may raise its key interest rate soon.
But that really overlays a more sort of fundamental and scary concern that investors have.
about the scale and rapidity of the buildup in government bond levels around the world, but I think primarily in the US, where the deficit looks like it's settled at something around six percent of GDP.
And that that's in a time when really it should be kind of getting narrower.
If you go back far enough, uh you can get G twenty summits which came up with something like that.
Most famously the Toronto summit in twenty ten, when they came out with a plan to sort of keep their debts under control after the financial crisis.
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