Robert Armstrong

First reaction, is it going to actually happen?

As far as I know, the threatened tariffs on any country that trades with Iran have not happened.

We had a tweet from the president that was happening.

It then just drifted to wherever presidential tweets go when they're not with us.

So...

So, you know, the rhetoric is pretty strong.

There was the bizarre text to the leader of Norway.

It seems pretty serious.

And markets are reacting.

But the hard first question you always have to ask is, is this a case of real strategic boldness a la...

Venezuela?

Or is this a bunch of talk?

Like so many other adventures or near adventures have been in Trump's world of trade.

And it's very hard to tell at the outset.

Okay, let me frame this.

Let me steal a way of framing this from someone else.

Ian Bremmer, who's one of these people who sort of talks about geopolitical risk for a living.

I think his company's called Eurasia Group.

That's right.

Anyway, he had this short video that I think sums this up really well.