Stan Druckenmiller
speaker
26 appearances
2 recordings
2 series
first heard Oct 2024
last heard Dec 2024
Stan Druckenmiller’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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Appearances
It had a nice view of the Central Park, you know, the foliage and that kind of stuff. But it wasn't set up to be intimidating and glorious and grandiose at all.
There's like duct tape on the floor where the carpet's worn out. It was like... You know, how do you say, the elbows are worn out on the sweaters and people were just working hard.
I felt like I was going to piano lessons and listening to Beethoven and Mozart. These two guys were really, really extraordinary.
Well, how long do you think they can hold out? And we talked about it among the three of us, and these aren't things you know for sure, but I said, I don't think they can last three months. Rob, what do you think the probability is that they're going to devalue in three months? And I said, about 95%.
And he said, well, no, these guys are really under strain. I don't think this is going to last either.
And I'm thinking, the permission I just got is bold. It's enormous. It's like, oh, man. It was like an adrenaline rush to say, we have this much confidence and we just got licensed to go after this this aggressively.
There comes a moment when you have to go for the juggler, which is you have to decide you're right and go for it.
Where if the system holds and you're betting against the system, you lose about 1% or something like that. And what happens if it breaks? Well, it'll probably go down 18 to 20%. So you have a 20 to 1 bet.
But in that quiet period at the beginning, it was about little bits everywhere so nobody could see that you were becoming a tsunami. They just thought there were little ripples on the water.
When you're involved in an intense episode like that, physiologically, the kind of adrenaline makes it pretty hard to get a good night's sleep. You're on edge. You're checking currency prices. It's like, is it right at the boundary? Is it a half percent off what's going on in the other currencies in the system?
My wife was a New York Fed official. I didn't want to talk in proximity to her. Because at the time, if your wife had heard... She'd have a responsibility to inform the people at the New York Fed and the Federal Reserve System.
Part of what we tried to do was be kind of gentle until we had enough of a position on and then had to, how do you say, press it. But as we got into the 13th, 14th of September, you could feel the pressures and you could feel the market building up like it could get away from us.
We could be right, but if we were too gentle, we wouldn't get a big enough position on it. So we started pressing.
And what that did was it fortified our confidence that, oh boy, The Germans aren't going to let them out of this pickle. And now the whole world's going to see this. They're all going to dive on the pile.
That's when we just started banging it every few minutes. 500 million pounds, boom, boom, boom, right at the boundary. And it basically went through the night and into the next day.
It felt like it was in slow motion to me. And it felt like this is exactly what I expected to see unfold. And there's nothing that's contradicting that we're on the right path.
The tsunami of the whole world is going after this now. We've got a pretty good-sized position on. This is looking good.
He was in the next room and he just came to me and he said, they just let go. They just let go. And we kind of smiled. But it wasn't like a locker room, big high fives and bouncing around. It wasn't euphoric.
There was just kind of a little chuckle. This is very good. It was quite serene.
We talked about not being communicative, like stay away from cocktail parties, no black-tie dinners, you know, just go quiet for a while.
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