Stephen Kotkin

the working class organization movement stuff, and the university educated intellectuals.

That's a problem we still have today.

The Iranian regime now has that problem.

The Chinese regime in Beijing has this problem.

The Soviet Union had that problem.

Contemporary Russia has that problem.

How do you bring in modernity, meaning you have tanks, you have airplanes, or you have A.I.,

But keep out, for example, separation of powers, freedom, property rights, all the things that undermine your dictatorial rule.

So the czarist regime was a quintessential example of this fundamental dilemma.

So modernization is not a sociological process that kind of just happens.

It's a geopolitical process.

You modernize because you need to compete in the international system.

So if somebody has ships made out of steel, you either have ships made out of steel or they're going to show up at your door like we did to Japan and tell you that they're in charge now.

If you have an autocratic regime, it is existential for you every day.

So you want to compete.

France can compete or fail to compete, and its political system is not at risk.

No one's going to say the regime is illegitimate because someone else beat them in AI.

Students are going to protest in the streets.

That's not going to mean that the regime is going to fall.

There may be a change of government, but the system remains.