Trita Parsi
Appearances
Today, Explained
Art of the (Iran) deal
I think what went really right is that both sides recognized that they need a deal. And that to get a deal, they need to have reasonable demands and not go for this type of maximalist approach that oftentimes has been the case. Both sides have politics in their countries that is very unforgiving of any type of a compromise with Iran or with the United States.
Today, Explained
Art of the (Iran) deal
But Trump is very different in that sense. He doesn't really care what the political establishment in Washington thinks about these things. I think he's very... eager to get some sort of a deal because it's kind of part of his persona to be a dealmaker. And the Iranians recognize this.
Today, Explained
Art of the (Iran) deal
So the opportunity for the Iranians to actually strike a deal is frankly greater now than it was ever during the Biden administration because Biden, according to his own envoy, Rob Malley, was at best lukewarm towards getting a deal. And if you're lukewarm towards getting a deal, you're not going to get the deal.
Today, Explained
Art of the (Iran) deal
Well, a primary sticking point would be if Trump had adopted the position that the Israelis had pressed on him and pro-Israeli voices in Washington press switches, they want to see the complete dismantlement of the Iranian nuclear program. The reason why that is a problematic demand is because it will never be accepted by the Iranians.
Today, Explained
Art of the (Iran) deal
The United States essentially would have to go to war to achieve that objective. which incidentally is exactly what the Israelis want. They are deliberately pushing a line that they know will be rejected in order to pave the way for Trump having to then escalate matters towards a military conflict.
Today, Explained
Art of the (Iran) deal
But Trump seems to have rejected that demand and instead is focusing on how he can limit the Iranian program with restrictions, inspections, and verification and And by that, ensure that Iran can never build a nuclear weapon, which incidentally is exactly what Obama did.
Today, Explained
Art of the (Iran) deal
the Iranians have made significant progress, which is part of the challenge that Trump now has to deal with. But it's also, frankly, out of his own making. Had he not pulled out of the deal, the situation would have been very, very different right now.
Today, Explained
Art of the (Iran) deal
When Obama started serious negotiations with the Iranians, if the Iranians had made a decision to build a bomb, it would take them eight to 12 weeks to have the material for a bomb, the fissile material. It doesn't mean that they would have a bomb. It probably would take them another two years to build a bomb, test the bomb, et cetera. But to have the material, they were eight to 12 weeks away.
Today, Explained
Art of the (Iran) deal
As a result of the JCPOA, they would always be a minimum of 12 months away from having the material for a bomb. So he pushed the breakout time from eight to 12 weeks to 12 months. Today,
Today, Explained
Art of the (Iran) deal
Iran's breakout time is somewhere between three and seven days because of the dramatic progress they've made in their program because Trump walked out of the deal and the Iranians then stopped respecting the restrictions of the deal since the U.S. no longer was in the deal.
Today, Explained
Art of the (Iran) deal
Well, from the Iranian side, they need sanctions relief. Their economy is in a terrible shape. The country's official inflation rate hovers at around 35%, and the local currency, the rial, is on a nosedive.
Today, Explained
Art of the (Iran) deal
I don't think we're in a situation in which the regime is fearing regime collapse necessarily because Iran's economy has been in a bad shape for quite some time. It's a tremendously unpopular regime. But those are not sufficient ingredients in order to get a revolution. There needs to be a credible opposition. There needs to be political organization, leadership. None of those things exist.
Today, Explained
Art of the (Iran) deal
But nevertheless, the Iranians cannot thrive. They can just survive. And surviving is not enough. If they really want to be able to modernize their country, they need to get sanctions relief from the United States. The rest of the region is advancing way ahead of Iran in that regard. And from the American side, Trump really does not want to get into another war in the Middle East.
Today, Explained
Art of the (Iran) deal
And if this issue isn't resolved, mindful of how far the Iranians advanced their program, this is going to lead to some sort of a military confrontation. And Trump also wants to leave the Middle East militarily. He doesn't want to have 50,000 troops there. And a key factor that has kept the U.S. in the region is the enmity between the United States and Iran.
Today, Explained
Art of the (Iran) deal
If that can be pacified, it also paves the way for American troops to be able to come back home.
Today, Explained
Art of the (Iran) deal
Well, when Trump summoned Netanyahu to the White House, Netanyahu pushed for what he called the Libya-style solution, which means that the entire nuclear program would be destroyed and dismantled. This is what Libyan dictator Qaddafi did. And of course, eight or so years later, he was disposed. So the very idea that that would be an attractive option for the Iranians somewhat laughable.
Today, Explained
Art of the (Iran) deal
Netanyahu is pushing this line precisely because he knows it won't work, but it will leave Trump in a position in which he will have to escalate after he has failed. But Trump seems to recognize this, and he has decided not to go down this path. He keeps on saying his only red line is no nuclear weapons.
Today, Explained
Art of the (Iran) deal
And you can achieve that much easier, actually, by having a verification program, a deal that is... based on inspections, restrictions and verification that ensures that the Iranians simply cannot build it. And you don't have to go to war. And Trump doesn't want to go to war. And rightly so, in my view, a war with Iran would be a disaster for the region, for Iran, but also for the United States.
Today, Explained
Art of the (Iran) deal
the Iranians are saying that their economy is not closed to American companies because of Iranian decisions, but because of sanctions. That's up until recently, not entirely true.
Today, Explained
Art of the (Iran) deal
Hardliners in Iran could live with a nuclear deal, they could live with a deal with the United States, but they did not want to see American companies entering the Iranian market because they feared, perhaps quite correctly, that once American companies are in Iran, there would also be some degree of American influence in Iran. And eventually, the hardliners would lose control over power.
Today, Explained
Art of the (Iran) deal
Now they have shifted their position. And I think a key reason as to why they're shifting their position is because they recognize... Secondary sanctions relief, meaning lifting the sanctions on Europeans and Chinese, etc., actually doesn't work. Most companies will not go into the Iranian market unless they know that they're not doing anything differently from what American companies are doing.
Today, Explained
Art of the (Iran) deal
Because they know that if American companies are in the Iranian market, the likelihood that the Europeans eventually would get sanctioned is far less. Now, what's interesting with all of this is that Trump is the kind of president that actually cares about this. He wants to expand American markets. This would never have worked with Biden. And it didn't work with Obama.
Today, Explained
Art of the (Iran) deal
Obama didn't want to go that far, fearing that this would have generated an even stronger backlash from Republicans in Congress against the JCPOA.
Today, Explained
Art of the (Iran) deal
And they are speaking Trump's language. If you take a look at the op-ed that the Iranian foreign minister had in the Washington Post a couple of days ago, it was interesting because he talked about a trillion dollar opportunity. I have no idea whether it's a trillion dollar opportunity. I suspect that's quite an exaggeration.
Today, Explained
Art of the (Iran) deal
However, the Iranian market is a big market and it would be the largest market opening up to Western countries since the fall of the Soviet Union.
Today, Explained
Art of the (Iran) deal
If they continue on this track and say that the red line for Trump is only a nuclear weapon and the Iranians are also reasonable and agree to significant restrictions on their program, then I think they can have a nuclear deal, at least a framework of a nuclear deal within 60 days. Wow. It will take a little bit longer perhaps to negotiate all of the details.
Today, Explained
Art of the (Iran) deal
But ultimately, for this to work, it has to be done between the US and Iran. That will make it go faster. But that also requires that the Iranians agree to negotiate directly. The talks that took place in Oman were for about two and a half hours indirect. And then towards the end, they had a chat with each other.
Today, Explained
Art of the (Iran) deal
The Iranians really need to immediately move towards direct conversations because that's how you can get things done fast. That's how you can build a bit of a rapport between the different negotiators, which is crucial for a deal like this. Trump is not known for his patience. He's pretty impatient. He wants to get this done fast.
Today, Explained
Art of the (Iran) deal
And the Iranians are going to miss the opportunity if they don't go along with a method and a process that can allow this to be done fast.