Trita Parsi

Back in the warm in just a moment.

Thanks for having me on again, Steve.

So the Europeans began the process of reimposing snapback sanctions at the UN.

This is a mechanism that was included in the Iran nuclear deal, which meant that any member of the JCPOA could make a move to

bring back all of the previous UN sanctions on Iran, and the Russians and the Chinese could not veto it.

It takes 30 days.

The Europeans have chosen to do it now because in October, it actually expires.

Had they not done it now, they would not have the possibility to do it, although there wasn't a possibility for an extension of this.

The reason why I'm concerned about this is even if the Europeans are saying, look, we're doing this because we want to push for new negotiations.

I personally don't think that that is actually their intent.

But let's for a second assume that it is their intent.

Part of the reason why I think this is going to be really challenging is because I'm not seeing any readiness yet on the US side or on the Iranian side to actually have successful negotiations.

They're too far away from each other on the core issue of enrichment.

If they start talks now with a 30-day deadline, it is more likely to fail.

And as a result, the pressure on Trump from the Israelis and others will then amass significantly that because talks failed and the deadline is out, you have to go back to talks.

Because you will see new accusations claiming that the Iranians are doing X, Y, and Z, or that some part of the program is still there, or the mere fact that the Iranians are not agreeing that the whole program has been obliterated and that they're claiming that they're going to restart it at some point and go back to enrichment because they consider that to be their national right.

I'm personally not of the view that there is a lack of pretext and excuses.

I think we have seen so much happening in international relations based on false excuses.

The question is, will he stand firm enough and say, look, I already resolved this issue, so I'm not going to touch it again?

If he manages to do that, then perhaps this will not bring about that type of confrontation.