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Chapter 1: How do solar cycles influence our lives?
If I were to tell you that the cycles of the sun could affect your entire life, you might think that I was suddenly taking a turn away from astronomy and into astrology. While there are many people in the world who believe that you can learn things about your future by studying the position of stars and planets, it's not a position I tend to take on this channel.
I'm more interested in the beauty of space and the mechanisms that explain why it is the way it is. But sometimes, there is a grain of truth behind even the most surprising of stories. So, allow me to put on my prophesying hat.
While I'm no writer of horoscopes, I will predict that based on the current state of the sun, over the next few years, you might be more likely to experience bad health, less reliable technology, see warmer weather with fewer clouds, and possibly could be influenced in other surprising ways. How do I know?
Because it turns out the sun, that giant ball of fire in our sky, is not just the place we get our energy from. Science is starting to show that its 11 year cycles might just be the metronome measuring out how life on our planet tick, tick, ticks. I'm Alex McColgan, and you're watching Astrum. Today, we're going to look at sun cycles.
In particular, I intend to show you exactly how the cycles of the sun are already influencing the course of your life. It's no surprise that the sun is influential to life on Earth. After all, in many respects, it is life's origin. Life on Earth needs energy to function, and the sun frequently provides that energy.
Light for plants, plants for herbivores, herbivores for carnivores, all the way up the food chain. It's hard to find anything on Earth that could live without our sun. But beyond the gift of that life-sustaining energy, it's easy to think of the sun as fairly static. We see it rise and fall in the sky, but we rarely notice it undergoing any sort of change. This, however, is an illusion.
The sun changes all the time. As science has advanced and we've been able to shield out the worst of the sun's glare, it became possible to study the sun's surface. As early as 1610, it became clear that the sun was a boiling, shifting sea of barely restrained plasma, which frequently wasn't restrained.
In spite of the intense gravitational force holding it all together, the nuclear reactions taking place in its core are so hot, reaching 15 million degrees Celsius in its centre, that plasma bubbles and bursts on its surface, erupting into solar flares that blaze in all directions.
Sunspots, dark patches of the sun's surface that are filled with intense magnetic fields and can be between 1,600 and 160,000 kilometers across, form, drift, and vanish. Chronal mass ejections explode out of the sun's corona, the atmospheric zone above the sun that is strangely 200 times hotter than its surface. It's hard to find a place in the solar system that is as active as the sun.
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Chapter 2: What is the Schwabe cycle and its significance?
You are 50 times more likely to see a solar flare during solar maximum compared to the Sun's minimum. and large CMEs go from happening once every few days to multiple times in a single day. This is known as the Schwabe cycle. Interestingly, this represents one half of a larger cycle known as the Hale cycle, which maps the changes in the Sun's magnetic polarity.
Once every Schwabe cycle, every 11 years, the Sun's magnetic north pole and south poles swap places. When another Schwabe cycle occurs, the poles swap back. Tick, tick, tick. This constant rising and falling of solar energy levels thrums through our planetary system, rising and falling like a heartbeat. And surprisingly, Even though we can't see it, we here on Earth move to its rhythm.
We don't really understand why the Sun goes through this cycle. It's clearly related to the magnetic processes that exist within the Sun itself.
Yet, although we have observed these cycles in action for the last 200 years, and have seen evidence of their influence on the Earth over the last 10,000, we're still no closer to figuring out why the Sun cycle has a length of that particular time period rather than any other. What force drives it?
Lacking any other obvious answer, some scientists have tried to connect the orbital length of Jupiter, also about 11 years, to this cycle length, but this could easily be a coincidence.
Although Jupiter represents 2.5 times the combined mass of all the other planets in the solar system, and definitely exerts some gravitational pull on the Sun, its orbit cannot explain the variations, seemingly random, that the Sun's cycle undergoes. Much of what goes on within the sun is a mystery to us. But its influence on Earth? That is much easier to see. It begins with the space around us.
Space is more and more important to modern civilization, so it shouldn't be surprising that CMEs and solar storms streaming out from the sun more regularly would have an impact on the technology we have up there. Scientists are able to predict the arrival of a solar storm, known as a geomagnetic storm, by the time it arrives at Earth, days or even weeks in advance.
This allows astronauts to go into safe shelters to hide themselves from harmful rises in radiation levels. and it also allows the delicate hardware on satellites to be powered down to prevent that hardware from being fried. This is important, as solar radiation can cause unexpected electrical currents to form in wiring, overloading systems that haven't gone into a safe standby mode.
But there's another aspect to geomagnetic storms that you might not expect. All of that radiation has an impact on the atmosphere itself. It warms it, albeit just a little. As the atmosphere warms, it expands, and this has an impact on our satellites. In space, there is no drag, so objects can orbit practically forever.
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Chapter 3: How do geomagnetic storms affect technology?
Studies of birds have shown that on warmer years they tend to lay eggs earlier. Curiously, a study published in 2009 by researchers in the Netherlands went as far as to show that the laying times of blue tits were also affected by the number of sunspots occurring, which even the researchers found hard to explain. It's not like birds can look at the sun to see how many sunspots there are.
Nevertheless, a link seems to exist, according to the five nesting groups that were looked at. This isn't something that affects just blue tits, or even species like homing pigeons that are sensitive to magnetic fluctuations, who fly different routes depending on what time in the 11 year cycle it is, I'm talking about the last unmentioned point in my horoscope – bad health.
There are numerous studies on how solar cycles might influence us. In 2011, a study spanning two decades of nearly one-third of women in Holland discovered a peak in six cervical pathologies that took place just after solar maximum, when the sun's radiation was hitting hardest. The study also checked one man during the same period, which admittedly is a much smaller number of candidates.
Still, it was interesting to note that the man experienced slight elevations in oral temperature, pulse rate, blood pressure, and respiration rate that took place soon after solar maximum 2. It's not just physical. There's even an influence on the rate of mental disorders. A study in 2006 looked at 237,000 clients in the main Medicaid database collected between 1995 and 2004.
They found that, of all those clients, those born during higher energy chaotic cycles experienced an increased rate in mental disorders. If this is the case, then the cycle of the sun at the moment of your birth might just have influenced the course of your life. It's not quite star signs, but astrology might just be onto something. At least with one specific star.
Ultimately, the science on this is still ongoing, and it should be stressed that any health impacts caused by these cycles are extremely minor. As one researcher put it, it took hundreds of thousands of patients to even notice that there was a health impact. The Sun cycle should not prevent you from living your life. We're currently heading towards a solar maximum, predicted to arrive in 2025.
But for those who are worried, living through or being born in a solar maximum isn't all bad. The same studies suggested that this radiation might lead to a rise in creativity and adaptability. Perhaps it was during one such cycle, 80,000 years ago, that a human brain was mutated to give it abstract thought and consciousness. If so, if they gave us the means to perceive the universe,
we have much to thank solar maximums for. We wouldn't be us without them. When you think about the North Pole, you don't expect it to go anywhere. And you certainly don't expect it to change places with the South Pole. That would just be wrong. Our magnetic compasses would all point the wrong way. We'd need to update our maps. Birds would probably be horribly confused. And yet,
Although they sound like something out of science fiction, geomagnetic reversals like this are real. They've happened before, and the process behind it might be a lot more dangerous than you'd think. To be clear, it's not the reversals themselves that are potentially dangerous, it's the buildup. During those times, the Earth's magnetic field
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Chapter 4: What are the potential health impacts of solar cycles?
While in time things settle down and the spirals reassert themselves, it seems random as to which way they will do this, meaning about half the time our magnetic north pole reappears over the geographical south. This reasserting can take 1,000 to 10,000 years. Alright, but would that really be the end of the world? Why does this matter?
Well, during that period before the poles reassert themselves, our Earth's magnetic field drops to as low as 10% of its current strength. In theory, this could leave us much more vulnerable to all the solar radiation space throws at us. We could see auroras reaching much further south during that time. Skin cancer rates would increase. Our satellites would find themselves with not enough shielding.
Radiation would fry their circuits, causing them to malfunction, shut down, and potentially even slowly fall from orbit. Our electrical grid would be much more vulnerable to solar storms, which could lead to large segments of the Earth's population without power. With no electricity or satellite communication, it would be a devastating blow to our global civilization. It could be worse than that.
A research team from the University of New South Wales in Sydney even linked one of the most recent weakenings of the magnetic field, the Lechamps event, a temporary 800-year wobble rather than a full flip, to megafaunal mass extinctions in Australia, including the deaths of Diprodoton, giant Australian wombats, and Procoptodon goliah, giant kangaroos.
Temporary wobbles like this are known as geomagnetic excursions rather than full reversals, and they happen over much shorter timeframes. Their transition periods can last as little as 200 years rather than 10,000, which can be much more difficult for species to adapt to. In their 2021 study, they argued that there was a spike in atmospheric radiocarbon levels
caused by the collapse of the Earth's magnetic field, indicating climate shifts that could have led to these extinctions, the timing lines up uncomfortably. But how real are these risks? Honestly, it's a mixed bag. A point in our favour is that other than this recent study, there is no indication that magnetic field reversals have ever coincided with mass extinction events.
It seems like many reversals have come and gone without affecting animal or plant life at all. And even in this study, such mass extinctions seem to have been limited in scope. There is no claim from the researchers that this was a global phenomenon. Other parts of the world remained unaffected even during the Lechamps event.
It seems that a perfect storm might have been in play, where specific conditions over Australia left it more vulnerable to solar radiation. In terms of our global society, it's worth noting that these magnetic changes would take many lifetimes to complete, even at their fastest. This would be slow enough that we could come to terms with our new reality.
If our satellites don't have enough shielding, we would have time to build some that were better protected. If solar radiation becomes a larger risk, we could remain indoors more. Sun cream might become more powerful to mitigate the dangers of cancers if not remove them And according to NASA, even if our fields were to significantly weaken, it's not like we would be left without protection.
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Chapter 5: What happens during geomagnetic reversals?
At a node, that's where things get more serious, and risk of floods become highest. The last time this alignment occurred in September 2015, the UK and the US both issued major flood warnings to its citizens.
In September itself, there were floods, albeit minor ones, but it was only when heavy rain combined with the strength of the lunar nodes a couple of months later that the real damage was inflicted. In the US in October, South Carolina saw flash flooding that caused property damage and people having to be rescued by emergency services.
At the end of December 2015, the UK was hit by some of the worst floods it had seen in a century. Combined with the power of Storm Desmond, flooding and storm damage caused an estimated £1.3 billion in damages. these floods can be highly damaging. But that in and of itself doesn't completely explain NASA's worry for the upcoming alignment in mid-2030.
There is an extra element at play, beyond the regular rhythm of this rising flood risk we have been seeing through the course of human history. Unfortunately, the next node's alignment with the Sun promises to be particularly devastating. The danger is that this phenomenon is combined with an already strained system, even more strained than it was in 2015.
Climate change has resulted in steadily rising sea levels. When the next node aligns with the Sun in the mid-2030s, this will likely lead to a dramatic increase of floods on planet Earth. Worryingly, a new study led by NASA's sea-level change science team predicts that almost all US mainline coastlines, Hawaii and Guam, will have a huge leap in flood numbers when this happens.
Some predictions claim this node alignment could cause four times the amount of flooding from one decade to the next, which will damage infrastructure and change our coastlines around the world.
This means human life will inevitably be affected by these floods, impacting shelter, clean water supplies, electricity, as well as the increased risk of waterborne disease outbreaks like hepatitis A and cholera. Plus, the receding flood water can create stagnant pools of water where mosquitoes gather, which can spread other diseases like malaria. This has a knock-on effect on economic issues.
as these natural events can make coastal life unaffordable, with increased cost of insurance on these homes, or an inability to find insurance at all, which could cause a reduction in asset value in the community. Consequently, this lunar nodal cycle will damage the quality of life in coastal communities, where infrastructure may not be rebuilt or adapted to this force of nature.
It's not just bad for humans. Ilya Roshlin, a visiting professor at Rutgers University, analysed that the peak of the lunar wobble, where high tides are higher, can drown salt marshes.
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Chapter 6: Should we be worried about the Earth's magnetic field weakening?
or are close enough to make the drive, you may want to try and see this eclipse for yourself. The Sun will only be totally obscured within the diameter of this shadow. Outside of that, the Sun is only partially obscured from the viewer's perspective. This viewer is witnessing an annular or partial eclipse, also known as a transit.
The shadow moves across the Earth extremely fast, at roughly 1km a second. Witnessed from a high altitude, it is a majestic sight as the shadow shifts across the landscape. Satellites have also witnessed the movement of this shadow. The shadow isn't as sharp as you might expect, and this is due to the angular diameter of the Sun and the Moon and their distance apart.
The Sun itself is huge, a whopping 1.4 million km across. The Moon is much smaller, at only 3,400 km across. Now, this image isn't to scale, but it shows visually why the shadow isn't sharp. The umbra is the shadow where the Sun is completely obscured, and the penumbra is the shadow where the Moon only partially obscures it. This part of the shadow is much wider than the 250 km wide umbra shadow,
So, why doesn't the Moon create eclipses every month when it orbits in front of the Sun? Well, this is because the Moon's orbit is not in line with the Earth's orbit around the Sun. This means there are only a couple of times per year when the alignment is right. This alignment of three celestial objects is known as a syzygy.
A very cool word, but not something you'll need to remember for this video, I just thought you would find that interesting. If you live in the UK like me, sadly you won't get to see much of the eclipse this April unless you live at the furthest west parts of the country, as the sun will be dipping below the horizon just as it begins.
Maybe we will get to see some devil's horns though, still a spectacular sight indeed. But the Earth is not the only place to experience solar eclipses, and we have the images and videos to prove it. Let's explore eclipses of our closest celestial neighbour, the moon. Because it would make sense that if the moon can occult the earth, then surely the earth can occult the moon. And the answer is yes.
But it's not the shadow that's the really visually appealing part of this, from the earth anyway. This is because the Earth is four times as big in the moon's sky as the moon is on Earth. So when the Earth fully obscures the Sun, the whole moon is in the umbra.
At first, the shadow of the Earth creates a crescent shape , but what is different this way around is that, unlike the Moon, the Earth has an atmosphere. This means that when the Moon is totally eclipsed, the Earth's atmosphere refracts the Sun's light around the planet, gently illuminating the Moon in a reddish hue. This makes for a beautiful, but almost spooky view.
The colour is caused by Rayleigh scattering, a topic I've discussed in another video. Rayleigh scattering is the same process that makes our sky blue, and our sunsets red. This image is beautiful, in that you can see the different wavelengths of light being scattered through Earth's atmosphere, from deep red from this side, through to blue on this side.
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Chapter 7: What can we expect from future solar maximums?
If the star continually dims in a pattern, for instance once every 100 days, then we know that a planet orbits that star and takes 100 days to do so. Using this method, space agencies like NASA have discovered over 3,000 exoplanets, more than all other methods of exoplanet detection combined. It can even help scientists calculate the size of the planet by measuring how much the star dimmed
or the composition of that planet's atmosphere by looking at the spectra of the light that passes through from the star to us. It might be some time before we see a solar eclipse again. After the one in April, the next eclipse won't happen in America until 2044. Here in the UK, the next one won't occur until 2090. If I live to see it, I will be a very old man.
But I'm amazed as I see all of the images of eclipses that take place throughout the solar system. There's a special beauty to each one of them, a fleeting moment where one celestial body brushes lightly against another, even if it's only through their shadows, rather than harbingers of doom. These moments fill me with awe and remind me how connected the universe is.
Even across thousands, millions, or even billions of kilometers of space, we can notice a planet's passing. And if you're in the right place at the right time, oh what wonders you can see. Thanks for watching! When you join, you'll be able to watch the whole video ad-free, see your name in the credits, and submit questions to our team.
Meanwhile, click the link to this playlist for more Astrum content. I'll see you next time.
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