Becker Private Equity & Business Podcast
Consumer Spending, Job Growth, and Economic Uncertainty with Matt Wolf of Elliott Davis 6-5-25
Thu, 05 Jun 2025
In this episode, Matt Wolf, Valuation Leader and Healthcare Senior Analyst at Elliott Davis, shares insights on slowing consumer spending, job growth trends, and their impact on the healthcare sector.
Chapter 1: What insights does Matt Wolf share about consumer spending?
Yeah, thanks, Chanel. You know, as of this recording, we're a day away from the May non-farm payrolls report coming out, which is always, this one's going to be very much watched, I think, as we all try to ascertain the degree to which the economy and spending is slowing down, consumer spending, which really drives economic growth. is slowing.
Chapter 2: What recent trends are observed in job growth?
We had a very lackluster, I think, maybe to put it nicely, April consumer spending report, 0.2% gain, which was down from 0.4 and 0.7% in March and February, respectively. The job openings report that we got yesterday, Wednesday, as of this recording, was not even just lackluster, it was bad.
Chapter 3: How significant are the upcoming payroll reports?
There's always not often a direct correlation, though, really, between the openings and the nonfarm payrolls for a lot of different reasons. So really looking forward to that tomorrow. The watermark there is about 100,000 jobs. That's what the economy needs to add to sustain growth.
Chapter 4: What revisions should we expect in the payroll reports?
But I would encourage people not only to look at the May number, but also look into the report at the revisions and see how the prior months may be revised up or down, which is something that happens in every report. The Bureau of Labor Statistics does it each and every time that they release new nonfarm payrolls reports. So the fact that there are revisions is not something to be concerned about.
But We do expect or I expect to see kind of a reduction in prior months and we'll see the magnitude of those reductions as we look ahead towards a summer and fall plagued with indecision in Washington and uncertainty around future tariffs. We're all just trying to get a sense of what does the future economic demand look like? What does that mean for our sectors?
And even health care, where I focus, is certainly not immune to these macroeconomic pressures. It's less cyclical than other industries, but still affected by the economic conditions, if for no other reason than more and more patients we're seeing are having to decide between paying the high cost of food, paying the high cost of rent, or paying the high cost of medical care. And those decisions
On a micro level, we'll have macro implications across healthcare. So it's all very connected and it starts with the top line consumer demand. And that's what I'm really watching along with many others.
Perfect. Well, Matt, I want to thank you as always for joining me today and for sharing your insights on the Becker Private Equity and Business Podcast. Always a pleasure. Thanks.
Thank you.
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