Lithium Slump Winners and Losers in the EV Sector

Albemarle’s $1B+ Q3 loss as lithium slump deepens — who wins, who losesWINNERS U.S. EV makers (battery input deflation supports margins and/or aggressive pricing) Names: Tesla ($TSLA); General Motors ($GM); Ford ($F) Why it moves: Lithium is a major driver of battery pack costs; cheaper lithium lowers cost of goods, giving OEMs room to defend margins or cut prices to stimulate demand.Grid/storage integrators and solar+storage installers (cheaper batteries unlock more deployments) Names: Fluence Energy ($FLNC); Stem ($STEM); Sunrun ($RUN) Why it moves: Lower $/kWh improves project returns and attach rates for residential and commercial storage, supporting volume growth for integrators and installers.Next-gen/battery tech developers (friendlier unit economics while scaling) Names: QuantumScape ($QS); Enovix ($ENVX); Microvast ($MVST) Why it moves: Falling cell and pack costs reduce the penalty of early-scale manufacturing and can accelerate customer trials as total system costs drop.LOSERSU.S.-listed lithium producers (pricing pressure hits revenue, capex, and guidance) Names: Albemarle ($ALB); Arcadium Lithium ($ALTM); Lithium Americas ($LAC) Why it moves: Realized prices reset lower and surpluses persist, compressing margins, stressing balance sheets, and forcing capex and guidance revisions.U.S.-listed lithium developers/early-stage projects (financing and FID risk rises at low price decks) Names: Standard Lithium ($SLI); Sigma Lithium ($SGML); Atlas Lithium ($ATLX) Why it moves: Weak price decks raise cost of capital and slow partner decisions, increasing the risk of delays, downsizing, or cancellations of new projects.Battery recyclers (spread compression when virgin lithium is cheap) Names: Li-Cycle ($LICY); American Battery Technology ($ABAT) Why it moves: Recycling economics depend on the spread between recovered materials and processing costs; when virgin prices fall, spreads narrow and project execution risk rises.

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