Vietnam Tariffs: Corporate Winners and Losers

Hardest-hit Vietnam risks losing $25 billion from US tariffs, UN estimatesWinners: Gildan Activewear ($GIL) — Vertically integrated manufacturing across the Americas and Bangladesh means limited exposure to Vietnam; basics like tees and fleece face less tariff pressure versus Vietnam-sourced rivals, creating share and margin tailwinds in mass wholesale. Hanesbrands ($HBI) — In-house production in the Caribbean/Central America (CAFTA-DR) and Asia outside Vietnam gives flexibility to shift orders; competitors relying on Vietnam for underwear/activewear may be forced to raise prices or swallow margins, improving HBI’s relative positioning. Apple ($AAPL) — Consumer electronics currently enjoy tariff exemptions, and Apple’s Vietnam assembly (e.g., audio accessories) is less directly hit; relative resilience versus footwear/apparel peers facing immediate costs helps protect supply continuity and demand. Canadian Pacific Kansas City ($CP) — If U.S. buyers accelerate nearshoring from Southeast Asia to Mexico to bypass Vietnam-specific duties and transshipment scrutiny, cross-border rail volumes and logistics demand can trend higher, benefiting CPKC’s North-South network. Delta Apparel ($DLA) — Small cap, but operates a nearshore, quick-turn supply chain in the Americas; tariffs on Vietnam make its U.S./regional model comparatively more attractive for basics programs and private-label replenishment.Losers: Nike ($NKE) — Vietnam is a key production hub for footwear; 20% duties on Vietnamese goods raise landed costs and/or pressure margins and pricing in the U.S., risking demand elasticity and promotional intensity. Adidas ($ADDYY) — Heavy third-party manufacturing footprint in Vietnam for shoes/apparel; tariff shock complicates U.S. pricing and inventory flow, especially if retailers resist pass-throughs. Puma ($PUMSY) — Similar Vietnam reliance for athletic footwear; U.S. tariffs can compress gross margin or force list-price increases that dampen sell-through at key partners. VF Corp ($VFC) — Brands like Vans and The North Face source meaningfully from Vietnam; higher import costs or re-routing complexity weigh on gross margin and speed-to-shelf ahead of seasonal drops. PVH ($PVH) — Calvin Klein/Tommy Hilfiger supply chains include sizable Vietnam exposure; a tariff-driven cost uptick risks margin pressure or price hikes amid a still mixed U.S. apparel demand backdrop.

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