The Disinflationary Signal Trade: VIX Crash & Russell Surge | PM Nov 21

The ‘Bad News is Good News’ trade climaxed today as massive volatility led to a dramatic risk-on reversal. We break down the confusing economic signals (Manufacturing PMI vs. Services resilience) that fueled intense speculation on a near-term Fed pause and set the stage for a high-beta Monday.On the Tape:* The VIX CRASH: Why the near 10% drop from its high confirms institutional fear exhaustion and capital deployment.* The Technical Signal: How the S&P 500 held a critical psychological support level into the weekly close.* Index Divergence: NDX (Growth) vastly outperformed the Dow (Value), confirming the duration trade, not genuine economic acceleration.* Sector Focus: Why Real Estate (XLRE) leading the market is the clearest sign traders are betting on the end of the tightening cycle.* Risk Management: Navigating the major macro threat of the looming government shutdown delaying core inflation data (CPI/PCE) and creating 'policy fog.'Follow for daily alpha.

There are no comments yet.

Please log in to write the first comment.