Monetary Policy, Oil Prices, and Global Growth Forecasts

The U.S. economy shows signs of strain, with a reported surge in November job cuts and the lowest level of planned hiring since 2010, reflecting a structural labor shift linked to rapid AI adoption and corporate cost optimization. This caution is apparent in the corporate sector, where companies like Hewlett Packard Enterprise forecast weak enterprise spending, while consumer trends demonstrate a clear bifurcation favoring resilient discount retailers over traditional grocers. Despite initial global pessimism, overall economic growth has been surprisingly more resilient in 2025; however, this backdrop is complicated by new U.S. tariff policies that are fundamentally realigning global supply chains and acting as a tax on domestic consumption. In response to the loosening labor market and generalized uncertainty, financial markets are aggressively pricing in an imminent Federal Reserve rate cut, which is fueling sustained strength in precious metals markets like gold and silver. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank maintains that the euro area's inflation risks are balanced and is moving forward with legislative and technical preparations for a sovereign digital euro to enhance European strategic autonomy.

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