[Linkpost] “Epistemics (Part 10: The nontrivial probability gambit) | Reflective Altruism” by Unofficial Reflective Altruism Cross-Poster

This is a link post. Epistemics (Part 10: The nontrivial probability gambit) Even just a 1% chance of extremely high stakes is sufficient to establish high stakes in expectation. So we should not feel assured of low stakes even if a highly credible model—warranting 99% credence—entails low stakes. It hardly matters at all how many credible models entail low stakes. What matters is whether any credible model entails extremely high stakes. If one does—while warranting just 1% credence—then we have established high stakes in expectation, no matter what the remaining 99% of credibility-weighted models imply (unless one inverts the high stakes in a way that cancels out the other high-stakes possibility). Richard Yetter-Chappell, “Rule high stakes in, not out“ Listen to this post 1. Introduction This is Part 10 in my series on epistemics: practices that shape knowledge, belief and opinion within a community. In this series, I focus on areas where community epistemics could be productively improved. Part 1 introduced the series and briefly discussed the role of funding, publication practices, expertise and deference within the effective altruist ecosystem. Part 2 discussed the role of examples within discourse by effective altruists, focusing on the cases of Aum Shinrikyo and [...] ---Outline:(00:27) Epistemics (Part 10: The nontrivial probability gambit)(01:24) 1. Introduction(02:45) 2. The nontrivial probability gambit(07:58) 3. The naming game(10:43) 4. Very low probabilities are ubiquitous(13:50) 5. Shedding zeroes(16:10) 6. Beyond expected value: Fanaticism and stakes-sensitivity(20:16) 7. Evidence --- First published: December 26th, 2025 Source: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/B4NG3jRJzeo3nX4bM/epistemics-part-10-the-nontrivial-probability-gambit-or Linkpost URL:https://reflectivealtruism.com/2025/12/26/epistemics-part-10-the-nontrivial-probability-gambit/ --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO. ---Images from the article:Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.

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