“Experts & markets think authoritarian capture of the US looks distinctly possible” by LintzA

The following is a quick collection of forecasting markets and opinions from experts which give some sense of how well-informed people are thinking about the state of US democracy. This isn't meant to be a rigorous proof that this is the case (DM me for that), just a collection which I hope will get people thinking about what's happening in the US now. Before looking at the forecasts you might first ask yourself: What probability would I put on authoritarian capture?, and At what probability of authoritarian capture would I think that more concern and effort is warranted?  Forecasts[1] The US won’t be a democracy by 2030: 25% - Metaculus Will Trump 2.0 be the end of Democracy as we know it?: 48% - Manifold If Trump is elected, will the US still be a liberal democracy at the end of his term? (V-DEM): 61% [...] ---Outline:(00:45) Forecasts(01:50) Quotes from experts & commentators(03:20) Some relevant research --- First published: October 8th, 2025 Source: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/eJNH2CikC4scTsqYs/experts-and-markets-think-authoritarian-capture-of-the-us --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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