Jobs, Immigration, and Portfolio Allocation: Where the Puck is Going

September 8, 2025 | Season 7 | Episode 33The financial landscape is shifting beneath our feet, and savvy investors are taking notice. Recent employment data has revealed troubling signs of economic weakness—just 22,000 jobs added in August (far below expectations), unemployment rising to a four-year high of 4.3%, and downward revisions showing actual job losses in June for the first time since 2020.But within this uncertainty lies opportunity. BlackRock, the world's largest asset manager, has made a striking proclamation: we're entering a prolonged dollar weakening cycle. History shows these cycles typically last eight years, potentially unlocking significant outperformance for international equities. With international stocks already outpacing the S&P 500 (21% vs 10% YTD) and U.S. markets trading at a premium (25x vs 17x forward earnings globally), the case for diversification beyond American borders grows compelling.The interplay between immigration and employment represents another crucial dynamic shaping our economic future. As immigration numbers decline from recent peaks, we're seeing complex ripple effects throughout the labor market. Immigrants typically contribute to approximately half of U.S. job growth, bringing both labor supply and consumer demand. This relationship adds another layer to consider when interpreting employment data and making investment decisions.Markets remain resilient despite these challenges, buoyed by expectations of Federal Reserve intervention. Investors are now pricing in a 67% chance of three rate cuts this year—a dramatic shift that's already impacting bond yields and creating opportunities in interest-rate sensitive sectors. Meanwhile, specific growth opportunities like InnoData (INOD) in the AI space show how targeted investments can thrive even in uncertain times.Ready to position your portfolio for what's coming rather than what's already happened? Consider how these shifting dynamics might impact your investment strategy, and whether your current allocations reflect where the financial puck is heading.** For informational and educational purposes only, not intended as investment advice. Views and opinions are subject to change without notice. For full disclosures, ADVs, and CRS Forms, please visit https://heroldlantern.com/disclosure **To learn about becoming a Herold & Lantern Investments valued client, please visit https://heroldlantern.com/wealth-advisory-contact-formFollow and Like Us on Youtube, Facebook, Twitter, and LinkedIn | @HeroldLantern

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