Is the 4% Rule Dead? Bill Bengen Updates His Legendary Strategy

In this episode, we sit down with William Bengen, the legendary creator of the “4% Rule” that revolutionized retirement planning worldwide. Bill shares his unique journey from an MIT aerospace engineer to a financial planner, explaining how he used historical data to solve the “how much can I spend” dilemma. He dives deep into the critical concepts of “Sequence of Returns Risk” and explains why inflation is actually a more dangerous enemy to retirees than stock market crashes.The conversation explores his latest research, which updates the safe withdrawal rate to 4.7% (or higher) by utilizing what he calls the “Four Free Lunches” of investing. Bill also analyzes the current market environment of late 2025, discussing how high Shiller CAPE valuations and moderate inflation impact today’s withdrawal strategies. Beyond the numbers, he touches on the psychological aspects of spending, the validity of the FIRE movement, and his personal “four pillars” for a happy retirement. Finally, Bill shares a moving personal story about finding love again after loss, proving that retirement is about much more than just a spreadsheet.AgendaIntroduction to William Bengen: From aerospace engineering to the family bottling business and financial planning.The origin of the 4% Rule: How a lack of industry answers led to groundbreaking historical research.Sequence of Returns Risk: Why the order of investment returns matters more than the average.The Inflation Threat: Why permanent price increases are more damaging than temporary bear markets.Defining “SafeMax”: The philosophy of planning for the worst-case historical scenario.The “Four Free Lunches”: Diversification, Rebalancing, Asset Class Tilting, and Equity Glide Paths.Market Analysis 2025: Discussing high Shiller CAPE ratios and their impact on today’s withdrawal rates.The FIRE Movement: Can early retirees with 50-year horizons rely on the 4% rule?The “Underspending” Paradox: Why many retirees end up with more money than they started with.Alternative Strategies: The pros and cons of fixed-percentage withdrawals versus inflation-adjusted spending.Bengen vs. Morningstar: The difference between historical “SafeMax” data and forward-looking return forecasts.The Four Pillars of Retirement: Health, Friends/Family, Passions, and Finances.Personal Journey: Bill’s experience with grief, finding new love, and life as an aspiring novelist.powered by ETFatlas.com

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