E478 | David Clarke (VenCap), Ertan Can (Multiple Capital) & Chloe Dagnell (Isomer Capital): The Path to Superior Venture Returns in Europe (EUVC Summit 2025)

If you tuned in hoping for crisp conclusions on fund performance, you may have left empty-handed.But if what you came for was a razor-sharp, high-stakes debate on the mechanics of venture economics—then this was your moment. Fourteen minutes of fierce dialogue at the EUVC Summit, and not a second wasted.Here’s how it went:“If you're drawing any conclusions from those data sets... be my friend. But we won't do that.”Why? Because the data is still messy. Still underpowered. And when you're modeling venture returns—especially for emerging managers—it’s more art than science.But oh, did we try.This fast-paced exchange brought clarity (and fire) to a few of venture’s most misunderstood dynamics:Why the $20B outcome is the new benchmark for greatnessHow fund size maps to percentile outcomesThe hard math behind Seed-to-Series A attritionWhy early-stage investing remains low-probability but high-upsideAnd the eternal debate: do emerging managers truly outperform, or just dominate a distorted sample?"If you're really needing data to prove that model—it does not exist.”We’ll get back to that.

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